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\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 34 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 62%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 62%

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What changed: 54% → 62% since the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 62%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LGA\n \n \n
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","\n\n
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\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 48 min ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Newark

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:11 PM EDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:09 PM EDT.

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\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
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","\n\n
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\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 1 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA now reports departure delays of 31–45 min at LaGuardia

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What changed: range 16–30 → 31–45 min

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The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 31–45 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

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\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LGA\n \n \n
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","\n\n
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\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 1 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Update\n Traffic restriction\n JFK\n arrivals\n \n \n
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FAA updates JFK ground delay program

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What changed: reason now “thunderstorms”

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The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to JFK (JFK), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 60 min and a maximum of 133 min. Departures to JFK are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

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\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View JFK\n \n \n
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","\n\n
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\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 1 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n EWR\n arrivals\n \n \n
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FAA reports ground delay program for Newark arrivals, average delay 72 min

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The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to Newark (EWR), citing “other”; it gives an average delay of 72 min and a maximum of 137 min. Departures to EWR are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

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\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
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","\n\n
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\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 54%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 54%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
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","\n\n
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\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 57%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
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","\n\n
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\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 64%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 64% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 64%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
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","\n\n
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\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 49%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
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","\n\n
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\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 49%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
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","\n\n
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\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n LGA\n arrivals\n \n \n
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FAA reports ground delay program for LaGuardia arrivals, average delay 31 min

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The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 31 min and a maximum of 88 min. Departures to LGA are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

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\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
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