{"items":[{"id":12068,"event_id":4886,"slug":"4886-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 209 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 20 → 21 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.702278Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny43MDIyNzgrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":21.1,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":209,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12068,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12067,"event_id":4822,"slug":"4822-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 264 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 33 → 25 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.695465Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42OTU0NjUrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":25.3,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":264,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12067,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12066,"event_id":4997,"slug":"4997-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 247 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.690041Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42OTAwNDErMDA6MDB8MTIwNjY","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":21.9,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":247,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12066,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12065,"event_id":4805,"slug":"4805-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 163 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 32%; calm-weather level 12%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.685409Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42ODU0MDkrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjU","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":18.9,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":163,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12065,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11986,"event_id":4969,"slug":"4969-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 16 cancellations among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 247 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:25.319973Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:24.345331Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNS4zMTk5NzMrMDA6MDB8MTE5ODY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":15.8,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":247,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11986,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11984,"event_id":4779,"slug":"4779-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 162 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 24 → 17 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:25.306560Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:24.345331Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNS4zMDY1NjArMDA6MDB8MTE5ODQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.1,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":162,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11984,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11806,"event_id":4906,"slug":"4906-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 210 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:35.637781Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS42Mzc3ODErMDA6MDB8MTE4MDY","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":27.7,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":210,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11806,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11748,"event_id":4836,"slug":"4836-atl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 49%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 265 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 49% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:57:11.914478Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:57:11.330158Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNTo1NzoxMS45MTQ0NzgrMDA6MDB8MTE3NDg","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":41.8,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":265,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11748,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11322,"event_id":4667,"slug":"4667-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour","body":"Of 49 arrivals that landed between 4:54 PM and 5:54 PM EST, 33 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 46% → 67%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:54:08.163121Z","time":"5:54 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:54 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:54:00Z","time":"5:54 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:54 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:54:07.967023Z","time":"5:54 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:54 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMjo1NDowOC4xNjMxMjErMDA6MDB8MTEzMjI","measurement":{"window":"4:54 PM–5:54 PM EST","n":49,"late_n":33,"share_pct":"67%","baseline_pct":"17%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":56.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11322,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11256,"event_id":4572,"slug":"4572-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 29 → 17 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:56:43.059351Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:56:42.074446Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMTo1Njo0My4wNTkzNTErMDA6MDB8MTEyNTY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.0,"target":"ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":129,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11256,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11255,"event_id":4511,"slug":"4511-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 180 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 39 → 24 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:56:43.051451Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:56:42.074446Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMTo1Njo0My4wNTE0NTErMDA6MDB8MTEyNTU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":24.0,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":180,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":11255,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11240,"event_id":4746,"slug":"4746-atl-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Atlanta: 14 of 41 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 83 departures scheduled from Atlanta (ATL) between 4:42 PM and 6:12 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 41. For 14 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into ATL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:42:25.040025Z","time":"4:42 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:42 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:42 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:42:00Z","time":"4:42 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:42 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:42 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:42:23.792596Z","time":"4:42 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:42 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:42 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMTo0MjoyNS4wNDAwMjUrMDA6MDB8MTEyNDA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","4:42 PM–6:12 PM EST"],["Tight turns","14 of 41"],["Share","34%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","4:42 PM–6:12 PM EST · 83 departures, aircraft known for 41"],["Tight turns","14 (34%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 5 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","DL 1021 to GSP at 5:17 PM: aircraft N834DN, inbound DL 1480 from JFK (not departed), -164 min to turn"],["Tightest","DL 1630 to SAV at 5:05 PM: aircraft N951DX, inbound DL 2908 from MCI (not departed), -113 min to turn"],["Tightest","DL 1124 to RSW at 5:07 PM: aircraft N348DN, inbound DL 1196 from RSW (airborne), -41 min to turn"],["Tightest","DL 826 to SNA at 4:51 PM: aircraft N722TW, inbound DL 695 from BOS (airborne), -8 min to turn"],["Tightest","YX 4514 to LGA at 4:44 PM: aircraft N403YX, inbound YX 4514 from LGA (landed), 2 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11240,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11187,"event_id":4597,"slug":"4597-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 81%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 130 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"71% → 81% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:14.319487Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:11.529419Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1NzoxNC4zMTk0ODcrMDA6MDB8MTExODc","forecast":{"p_pct":"81%","expected_cancellations":28.2,"target":"ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":130,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11187,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11186,"event_id":4510,"slug":"4510-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 83%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 180 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"72% → 83% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:14.287873Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:11.529419Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1NzoxNC4yODc4NzMrMDA6MDB8MTExODY","forecast":{"p_pct":"83%","expected_cancellations":39.5,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":180,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11186,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10875,"event_id":4411,"slug":"4411-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 38 among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 203 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 89 → 38 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.439357Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS40MzkzNTcrMDA6MDB8MTA4NzU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":37.6,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":203,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10875,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10848,"event_id":4234,"slug":"4234-atl-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta arrivals back near normal: 14% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:02 AM and 12:02 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 100% at worst → 14% now","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:02:40.215454Z","time":"12:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:02:00Z","time":"12:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:02:39.950681Z","time":"12:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzowMjo0MC4yMTU0NTQrMDA6MDB8MTA4NDg","measurement":{"window":"11:02 AM–12:02 PM EST","n":21,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"14%","baseline_pct":"17%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10848,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10725,"event_id":4591,"slug":"4591-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta departure delays worsen: 69% late in the last hour","body":"Of 35 departures that took off between 10:35 AM and 11:35 AM EST, 24 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 54% → 69%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:35:56.894444Z","time":"11:35 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:35 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:35:00Z","time":"11:35 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:35 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:35 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:35:56.763543Z","time":"11:35 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:35 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjozNTo1Ni44OTQ0NDQrMDA6MDB8MTA3MjU","measurement":{"window":"10:35 AM–11:35 AM EST","n":35,"late_n":24,"share_pct":"69%","baseline_pct":"16%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":42.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10725,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10625,"event_id":4313,"slug":"4313-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 82 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 82 of the 179 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 74 → 82 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:35.528800Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS41Mjg4MDArMDA6MDB8MTA2MjU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":81.9,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":179,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10625,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10623,"event_id":4410,"slug":"4410-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 70%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 203 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"56% → 70% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:35.513209Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS41MTMyMDkrMDA6MDB8MTA2MjM","forecast":{"p_pct":"70%","expected_cancellations":85.1,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":203,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10623,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10622,"event_id":4337,"slug":"4337-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 72%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 179 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"59% → 72% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:35.488776Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS40ODg3NzYrMDA6MDB8MTA2MjI","forecast":{"p_pct":"72%","expected_cancellations":81.9,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":179,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10622,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10292,"event_id":4247,"slug":"4247-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 36 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 36 of the 260 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 26 → 36 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:09.496659Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS40OTY2NTkrMDA6MDB8MTAyOTI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":36.4,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":260,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10292,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10165,"event_id":4452,"slug":"4452-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 259 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.947859Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozMy45NDc4NTkrMDA6MDB8MTAxNjU","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":33.0,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":259,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10165,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10061,"event_id":4168,"slug":"4168-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 140 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 16 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.321258Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4zMjEyNTgrMDA6MDB8MTAwNjE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.0,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":140,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10061,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9887,"event_id":4246,"slug":"4246-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 29%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 260 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.293970Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy4yOTM5NzArMDA6MDB8OTg4Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"29%","expected_cancellations":17.5,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":260,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9887,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9886,"event_id":4191,"slug":"4191-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 21%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 140 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 21%; calm-weather level 10%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.290244Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy4yOTAyNDQrMDA6MDB8OTg4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"21%","expected_cancellations":10.4,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":140,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9886,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy4yOTAyNDQrMDA6MDB8OTg4Ng","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny43MDIyNzgrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjg","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 20 → 21 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 209 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 33 → 25 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 264 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~25 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 247 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 32%, near normal

\n

What changed: 43% → 32%; calm-weather level 12%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 163 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 32%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 16 cancellations among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 247 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 24 → 17 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 162 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~17 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 210 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 49%

\n

What changed: 60% → 49% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 265 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Atlanta arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 46% → 67%

\n \n

Of 49 arrivals that landed between 4:54 PM and 5:54 PM EST, 33 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 4:54 PM–5:54 PM ESTSample 49 flightsLate 67%Typical 17%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

\n

What changed: about 29 → 17 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~17 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 39 → 24 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 180 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~24 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Atlanta: 14 of 41 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 83 departures scheduled from Atlanta (ATL) between 4:42 PM and 6:12 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 41. For 14 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into ATL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 4:42 PM–6:12 PM ESTTight turns 14 of 41Share 34%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 81%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 81%

\n

What changed: 71% → 81% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 130 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 81%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 83%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 83%

\n

What changed: 72% → 83% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 180 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 83%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 38 among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 89 → 38 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 203 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~38 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n ATL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Atlanta arrivals back near normal: 14% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 100% at worst → 14% now

\n \n

Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:02 AM and 12:02 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 11:02 AM–12:02 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 14%Typical 17%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Atlanta departure delays worsen: 69% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 54% → 69%

\n \n

Of 35 departures that took off between 10:35 AM and 11:35 AM EST, 24 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:35 AM–11:35 AM ESTSample 35 flightsLate 69%Typical 16%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 82 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 74 → 82 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 82 of the 179 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~82 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 70%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 70%

\n

What changed: 56% → 70% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 203 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 70%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 72%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 72%

\n

What changed: 59% → 72% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 179 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 72%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 21 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 36 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 26 → 36 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 36 of the 260 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~36 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 23 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 259 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 16 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 140 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 26 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 29%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 29%, near normal

\n

What changed: 60% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 260 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 29%Horizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 26 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 21%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 21%, near normal

\n

What changed: 48% → 21%; calm-weather level 10%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 140 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 21%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=ATL"}