{"items":[{"id":12331,"event_id":4667,"slug":"4667-atl-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta arrivals back near normal: 27% late in the last hour","body":"Of 30 arrivals that landed between 6:31 AM and 7:31 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 97% at worst → 27% now","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:31:37.208550Z","time":"7:31 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"51 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:31 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:31:00Z","time":"7:31 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"51 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:31 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:31:37.004797Z","time":"7:31 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"51 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:31 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMjozMTozNy4yMDg1NTArMDA6MDB8MTIzMzE","measurement":{"window":"6:31 AM–7:31 AM EST","n":30,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"27%","baseline_pct":"17%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12331,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12226,"event_id":4886,"slug":"4886-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 18 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 209 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 21 → 18 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.921608Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1NS45MjE2MDgrMDA6MDB8MTIyMjY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":18.4,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":209,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12226,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12225,"event_id":4906,"slug":"4906-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 209 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 57% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.919080Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1NS45MTkwODArMDA6MDB8MTIyMjU","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":18.4,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":209,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12225,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12224,"event_id":4836,"slug":"4836-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 264 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 55% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.915639Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1NS45MTU2MzkrMDA6MDB8MTIyMjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":23.6,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":264,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12224,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12215,"event_id":4667,"slug":"4667-atl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta arrival delays ease: 33% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:54 AM and 6:54 AM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 67% → 33%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:54:53.901221Z","time":"6:54 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:54 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:54:00Z","time":"6:54 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:54 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:54:53.797649Z","time":"6:54 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:54 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1NDo1My45MDEyMjErMDA6MDB8MTIyMTU","measurement":{"window":"5:54 AM–6:54 AM EST","n":15,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"33%","baseline_pct":"17%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12331,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12331,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Atlanta arrivals back near normal: 27% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:31:37.208550Z","time":"7:31 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"51 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:31 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:31 UTC"}}},{"id":12068,"event_id":4886,"slug":"4886-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 209 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 20 → 21 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.702278Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny43MDIyNzgrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":21.1,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":209,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12226,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12226,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 18 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.921608Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":12067,"event_id":4822,"slug":"4822-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 264 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 33 → 25 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.695465Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42OTU0NjUrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":25.3,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":264,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12067,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12066,"event_id":4997,"slug":"4997-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 247 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.690041Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42OTAwNDErMDA6MDB8MTIwNjY","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":21.9,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":247,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12066,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12065,"event_id":4805,"slug":"4805-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 163 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 32%; calm-weather level 12%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.685409Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42ODU0MDkrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjU","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":18.9,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":163,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12065,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11986,"event_id":4969,"slug":"4969-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 16 cancellations among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 247 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:25.319973Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:24.345331Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNS4zMTk5NzMrMDA6MDB8MTE5ODY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":15.8,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":247,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11986,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11985,"event_id":4886,"slug":"4886-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 20 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 209 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 28 → 20 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:25.315127Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:24.345331Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNS4zMTUxMjcrMDA6MDB8MTE5ODU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":20.3,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":209,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12226,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12226,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 18 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.921608Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":11984,"event_id":4779,"slug":"4779-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 162 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 24 → 17 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:25.306560Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:24.345331Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNS4zMDY1NjArMDA6MDB8MTE5ODQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.1,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":162,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11984,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11890,"event_id":4822,"slug":"4822-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 33 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 265 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 44 → 33 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:32.069756Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:31.773008Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwODoyNzozMi4wNjk3NTYrMDA6MDB8MTE4OTA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":33.1,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":265,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12067,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12067,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.695465Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"}}},{"id":11808,"event_id":4886,"slug":"4886-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 210 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 28 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:35.646533Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS42NDY1MzMrMDA6MDB8MTE4MDg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":27.7,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":210,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12226,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12226,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 18 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.921608Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":11807,"event_id":4822,"slug":"4822-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 44 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 44 of the 265 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 36 → 44 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:35.642825Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS42NDI4MjUrMDA6MDB8MTE4MDc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":44.4,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":265,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12067,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12067,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.695465Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"}}},{"id":11806,"event_id":4906,"slug":"4906-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 210 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:35.637781Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS42Mzc3ODErMDA6MDB8MTE4MDY","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":27.7,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":210,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12225,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12225,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 57%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.919080Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":11749,"event_id":4886,"slug":"4886-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 12 cancellations among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 210 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:57:11.919244Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:57:11.330158Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNTo1NzoxMS45MTkyNDQrMDA6MDB8MTE3NDk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.4,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":210,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12226,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12226,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 18 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.921608Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":11748,"event_id":4836,"slug":"4836-atl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 49%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 265 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 49% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:57:11.914478Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:57:11.330158Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNTo1NzoxMS45MTQ0NzgrMDA6MDB8MTE3NDg","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":41.8,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":265,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12224,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12224,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 55%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.915639Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":11681,"event_id":4779,"slug":"4779-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 160 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 29 → 24 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:17.127787Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:16.533924Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy4xMjc3ODcrMDA6MDB8MTE2ODE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":24.1,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":160,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11984,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11984,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:25.306560Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"}}},{"id":11680,"event_id":4836,"slug":"4836-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 267 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"46% → 60% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:17.123280Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:16.533924Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy4xMjMyODArMDA6MDB8MTE2ODA","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":37.5,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":267,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12224,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12224,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 55%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.915639Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":11617,"event_id":4822,"slug":"4822-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 36 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 36 of the 267 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 15 → 36 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:22.085883Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:21.263761Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMzo1NzoyMi4wODU4ODMrMDA6MDB8MTE2MTc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":35.6,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":267,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12067,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12067,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.695465Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"}}},{"id":11616,"event_id":4836,"slug":"4836-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 267 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:22.080721Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:21.263761Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMzo1NzoyMi4wODA3MjErMDA6MDB8MTE2MTY","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":35.6,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":267,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12224,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12224,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 55%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.915639Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":11573,"event_id":4822,"slug":"4822-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 15 cancellations among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 267 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:58:10.632853Z","time":"9:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:58:09.650295Z","time":"9:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMjo1ODoxMC42MzI4NTMrMDA6MDB8MTE1NzM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.8,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":267,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12067,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12067,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.695465Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"}}},{"id":11535,"event_id":4779,"slug":"4779-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 29 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 29 of the 160 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 22 → 29 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:27:19.631214Z","time":"9:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:27:18.769808Z","time":"9:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMjoyNzoxOS42MzEyMTQrMDA6MDB8MTE1MzU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":29.2,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":160,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11984,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11984,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:25.306560Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"}}},{"id":11534,"event_id":4805,"slug":"4805-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 160 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:27:19.625233Z","time":"9:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:27:18.769808Z","time":"9:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMjoyNzoxOS42MjUyMzMrMDA6MDB8MTE1MzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":29.2,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":160,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12065,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12065,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 32%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.685409Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMjoyNzoxOS42MjUyMzMrMDA6MDB8MTE1MzQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMjozMTozNy4yMDg1NTArMDA6MDB8MTIzMzE","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"12331\" data-event=\"4667\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMjozMTozNy4yMDg1NTArMDA6MDB8MTIzMzE\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-12331\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T12:31:37.208550Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 12:31 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 7:31 AM EST\">7:31 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T12:31:37.208550Z\">51 min ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Recovery</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-12331\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4667-atl-delays#u-12331\">Atlanta arrivals back near normal: 27% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 97% at worst → 27% now</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 30 arrivals that landed between 6:31 AM and 7:31 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>6:31 AM–7:31 AM EST</b></span><span>Sample <b>30 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>27%</b></span><span>Typical <b>17%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4667-atl-delays#u-12331\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4667\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4667-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"12226\" data-event=\"4886\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1NS45MjE2MDgrMDA6MDB8MTIyMjY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-12226\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T11:56:55.921608Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST\">6:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T11:56:55.921608Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-12226\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk#u-12226\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 18 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 21 → 18 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 209 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~18 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk#u-12226\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4886\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"12225\" data-event=\"4906\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1NS45MTkwODArMDA6MDB8MTIyMjU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-12225\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T11:56:55.919080Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST\">6:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T11:56:55.919080Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 57%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-12225\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4906-atl-delays#u-12225\">Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 57%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 50% → 57% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 209 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>57%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4906-atl-delays#u-12225\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4906\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4906-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"12224\" data-event=\"4836\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1NS45MTU2MzkrMDA6MDB8MTIyMjQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-12224\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T11:56:55.915639Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST\">6:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T11:56:55.915639Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 55%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-12224\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays#u-12224\">Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 55%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 49% → 55% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 264 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>55%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>2.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays#u-12224\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4836\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"12215\" data-event=\"4667\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1NDo1My45MDEyMjErMDA6MDB8MTIyMTU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-12215\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T11:54:53.901221Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 11:54 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 6:54 AM EST\">6:54 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T11:54:53.901221Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">arrivals</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-12215\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4667-atl-delays#u-12215\">Atlanta arrival delays ease: 33% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> late share 67% → 33%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:54 AM and 6:54 AM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>5:54 AM–6:54 AM EST</b></span><span>Sample <b>15 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>33%</b></span><span>Typical <b>17%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4667-atl-delays#u-12215\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4667\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4667-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"12068\" data-event=\"4886\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny43MDIyNzgrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-12068\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T10:55:47.702278Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST\">5:55 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T10:55:47.702278Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-12068\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk#u-12068\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 20 → 21 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 209 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~21 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk#u-12068\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4886\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"12067\" data-event=\"4822\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42OTU0NjUrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjc\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-12067\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T10:55:47.695465Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST\">5:55 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T10:55:47.695465Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-12067\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk#u-12067\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 33 → 25 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 264 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~25 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk#u-12067\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4822\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"12066\" data-event=\"4997\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42OTAwNDErMDA6MDB8MTIwNjY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-12066\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T10:55:47.690041Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST\">5:55 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T10:55:47.690041Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 50%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">New</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-12066\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4997-atl-delays#u-12066\">Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 247 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>50%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4997-atl-delays#u-12066\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4997\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4997-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"12065\" data-event=\"4805\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42ODU0MDkrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-12065\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T10:55:47.685409Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST\">5:55 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T10:55:47.685409Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 32%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Resolution</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-12065\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4805-atl-delays#u-12065\">Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 32%, near normal</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 43% → 32%; calm-weather level 12%</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 163 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>32%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4805-atl-delays#u-12065\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4805\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4805-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"11986\" data-event=\"4969\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNS4zMTk5NzMrMDA6MDB8MTE5ODY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11986\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T09:58:25.319973Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST\">4:58 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T09:58:25.319973Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">New</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11986\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4969-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11986\">Model expects about 16 cancellations among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 247 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~16 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>10.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4969-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11986\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4969\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4969-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"11985\" data-event=\"4886\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNS4zMTUxMjcrMDA6MDB8MTE5ODU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11985\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T09:58:25.315127Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST\">4:58 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T09:58:25.315127Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11985\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11985\">Updated model now expects about 20 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 28 → 20 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 209 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~20 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>7.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11985\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4886\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"11984\" data-event=\"4779\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNS4zMDY1NjArMDA6MDB8MTE5ODQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11984\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T09:58:25.306560Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST\">4:58 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T09:58:25.306560Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11984\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4779-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11984\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 24 → 17 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 162 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~17 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4779-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11984\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4779\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4779-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"11890\" data-event=\"4822\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwODoyNzozMi4wNjk3NTYrMDA6MDB8MTE4OTA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11890\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T08:27:32.069756Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 3:27 AM EST\">3:27 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T08:27:32.069756Z\">4 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11890\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11890\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 33 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 44 → 33 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 265 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~33 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.5 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11890\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4822\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"11808\" data-event=\"4886\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS42NDY1MzMrMDA6MDB8MTE4MDg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11808\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T07:26:35.646533Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST\">2:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T07:26:35.646533Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11808\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11808\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 12 → 28 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 210 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~28 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11808\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4886\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"11807\" data-event=\"4822\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS42NDI4MjUrMDA6MDB8MTE4MDc\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11807\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T07:26:35.642825Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST\">2:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T07:26:35.642825Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11807\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11807\">Updated model now expects about 44 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 36 → 44 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 44 of the 265 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~44 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11807\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4822\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"11806\" data-event=\"4906\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS42Mzc3ODErMDA6MDB8MTE4MDY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11806\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T07:26:35.637781Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST\">2:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T07:26:35.637781Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 50%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11806\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4906-atl-delays#u-11806\">Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 210 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>50%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4906-atl-delays#u-11806\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4906\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4906-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"11749\" data-event=\"4886\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNTo1NzoxMS45MTkyNDQrMDA6MDB8MTE3NDk\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11749\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T05:57:11.919244Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 05:57 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST\">12:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T05:57:11.919244Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11749\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11749\">Model expects about 12 cancellations among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 210 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~12 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>11.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11749\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4886\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4886-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"11748\" data-event=\"4836\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNTo1NzoxMS45MTQ0NzgrMDA6MDB8MTE3NDg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11748\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T05:57:11.914478Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 05:57 UTC · Sun Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST\">12:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 15</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T05:57:11.914478Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 49%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11748\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays#u-11748\">Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 49%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 60% → 49% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 265 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>49%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>8.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays#u-11748\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4836\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"11681\" data-event=\"4779\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy4xMjc3ODcrMDA6MDB8MTE2ODE\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11681\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T04:56:17.127787Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST\">11:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T04:56:17.127787Z\">8 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11681\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4779-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11681\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 29 → 24 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 160 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~24 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4779-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11681\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4779\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4779-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"11680\" data-event=\"4836\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy4xMjMyODArMDA6MDB8MTE2ODA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11680\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T04:56:17.123280Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST\">11:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T04:56:17.123280Z\">8 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 60%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11680\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays#u-11680\">Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 60%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 46% → 60% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 267 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>60%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays#u-11680\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4836\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"11617\" data-event=\"4822\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMzo1NzoyMi4wODU4ODMrMDA6MDB8MTE2MTc\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11617\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T03:57:22.085883Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST\">10:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T03:57:22.085883Z\">9 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11617\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11617\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 36 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 15 → 36 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 36 of the 267 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~36 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>10.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11617\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4822\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"11616\" data-event=\"4836\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMzo1NzoyMi4wODA3MjErMDA6MDB8MTE2MTY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11616\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T03:57:22.080721Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST\">10:57 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T03:57:22.080721Z\">9 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 46%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11616\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays#u-11616\">Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 267 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>46%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>10.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays#u-11616\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4836\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4836-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"11573\" data-event=\"4822\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMjo1ODoxMC42MzI4NTMrMDA6MDB8MTE1NzM\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11573\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T02:58:10.632853Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 02:58 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 9:58 PM EST\">9:58 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T02:58:10.632853Z\">10 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11573\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11573\">Model expects about 15 cancellations among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 267 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~15 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>11.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11573\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4822\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4822-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"11535\" data-event=\"4779\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMjoyNzoxOS42MzEyMTQrMDA6MDB8MTE1MzU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11535\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T02:27:19.631214Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 02:27 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 9:27 PM EST\">9:27 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T02:27:19.631214Z\">10 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11535\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4779-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11535\">Updated model now expects about 29 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 22 → 29 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 29 of the 160 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~29 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>8.5 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4779-atl-cancellation-risk#u-11535\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4779\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4779-atl-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"11534\" data-event=\"4805\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMjoyNzoxOS42MjUyMzMrMDA6MDB8MTE1MzQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-11534\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-15T02:27:19.625233Z\" title=\"2026-11-15 02:27 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 9:27 PM EST\">9:27 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-15T02:27:19.625233Z\">10 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 43%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/ATL\">ATL</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-11534\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4805-atl-delays#u-11534\">Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 160 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>43%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>8.5 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4805-atl-delays#u-11534\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/ATL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View ATL</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4805\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4805-atl-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n"],"filters":"airport=ATL&mode=all"}