{"items":[{"id":12769,"event_id":4969,"slug":"4969-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 247 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 28 → 17 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:56:46.703073Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:56:45.098764Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNjo1Njo0Ni43MDMwNzMrMDA6MDB8MTI3Njk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.5,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":247,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12769,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12768,"event_id":4886,"slug":"4886-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 208 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 22 → 17 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:56:46.696573Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:56:45.098764Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNjo1Njo0Ni42OTY1NzMrMDA6MDB8MTI3Njg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.8,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":208,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":12768,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12638,"event_id":5184,"slug":"5184-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 11 cancellations among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 166 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:57:37.430752Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:57:36.692305Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNTo1NzozNy40MzA3NTIrMDA6MDB8MTI2Mzg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.9,"target":"ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":166,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12638,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12349,"event_id":5081,"slug":"5081-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 11 cancellations among Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 207 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.091194Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:37.113811Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC4wOTExOTQrMDA6MDB8MTIzNDk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.0,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":207,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12349,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12348,"event_id":4822,"slug":"4822-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 263 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 25 → 30 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.087626Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:37.113811Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC4wODc2MjYrMDA6MDB8MTIzNDg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":29.8,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":263,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":12348,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11984,"event_id":4779,"slug":"4779-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 162 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 24 → 17 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:25.306560Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:24.345331Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNS4zMDY1NjArMDA6MDB8MTE5ODQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.1,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":162,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11984,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11256,"event_id":4572,"slug":"4572-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 29 → 17 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:56:43.059351Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:56:42.074446Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMTo1Njo0My4wNTkzNTErMDA6MDB8MTEyNTY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.0,"target":"ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":129,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11256,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11255,"event_id":4511,"slug":"4511-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 180 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 39 → 24 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:56:43.051451Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:56:42.074446Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMTo1Njo0My4wNTE0NTErMDA6MDB8MTEyNTU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":24.0,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":180,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":11255,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10875,"event_id":4411,"slug":"4411-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 38 among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 203 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 89 → 38 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.439357Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS40MzkzNTcrMDA6MDB8MTA4NzU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":37.6,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":203,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10875,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10625,"event_id":4313,"slug":"4313-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 82 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 82 of the 179 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 74 → 82 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:35.528800Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS41Mjg4MDArMDA6MDB8MTA2MjU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":81.9,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":179,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10625,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10292,"event_id":4247,"slug":"4247-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 36 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 36 of the 260 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 26 → 36 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:09.496659Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS40OTY2NTkrMDA6MDB8MTAyOTI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":36.4,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":260,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10292,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10061,"event_id":4168,"slug":"4168-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 140 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 16 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.321258Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4zMjEyNTgrMDA6MDB8MTAwNjE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.0,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":140,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10061,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9700,"event_id":4289,"slug":"4289-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among Atlanta departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 19 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.404893Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi40MDQ4OTMrMDA6MDB8OTcwMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"ATL departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9700,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9518,"event_id":4063,"slug":"4063-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 47 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 47 of the 137 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 31 → 47 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.212700Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yMTI3MDArMDA6MDB8OTUxOA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":47.3,"target":"ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":137,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9518,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9417,"event_id":4062,"slug":"4062-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 208 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 19 → 22 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:57:31.773417Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:57:30.715189Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo1NzozMS43NzM0MTcrMDA6MDB8OTQxNw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":22.1,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":208,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9417,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNjo1Njo0Ni43MDMwNzMrMDA6MDB8MTI3Njk","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 28 → 17 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 247 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 22 → 17 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 208 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~17 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 11 cancellations among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 166 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 11 cancellations among Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 207 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 25 → 30 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 263 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~30 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 24 → 17 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 162 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~17 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

\n

What changed: about 29 → 17 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 129 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~17 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 39 → 24 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 180 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~24 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 38 among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 89 → 38 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 203 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~38 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 26 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 82 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 74 → 82 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 82 of the 179 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~82 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 29 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 36 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 26 → 36 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 36 of the 260 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~36 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 31 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 16 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 140 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 37 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among Atlanta departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 19 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 41 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 47 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 31 → 47 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 47 of the 137 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~47 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 43 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 19 → 22 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 208 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~22 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=ATL"}