{"items":[{"id":12066,"event_id":4997,"slug":"4997-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 247 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.690041Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42OTAwNDErMDA6MDB8MTIwNjY","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":21.9,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":247,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12066,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12065,"event_id":4805,"slug":"4805-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 163 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 32%; calm-weather level 12%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:47.685409Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42ODU0MDkrMDA6MDB8MTIwNjU","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":18.9,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":163,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12065,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11806,"event_id":4906,"slug":"4906-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 210 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:35.637781Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNS42Mzc3ODErMDA6MDB8MTE4MDY","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":27.7,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":210,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11806,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11748,"event_id":4836,"slug":"4836-atl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 49%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 265 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 49% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:57:11.914478Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:57:11.330158Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNTo1NzoxMS45MTQ0NzgrMDA6MDB8MTE3NDg","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":41.8,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":265,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T05:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11748,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11322,"event_id":4667,"slug":"4667-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour","body":"Of 49 arrivals that landed between 4:54 PM and 5:54 PM EST, 33 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 46% → 67%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:54:08.163121Z","time":"5:54 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:54 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:54:00Z","time":"5:54 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:54 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:54:07.967023Z","time":"5:54 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:54 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMjo1NDowOC4xNjMxMjErMDA6MDB8MTEzMjI","measurement":{"window":"4:54 PM–5:54 PM EST","n":49,"late_n":33,"share_pct":"67%","baseline_pct":"17%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":56.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11322,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11187,"event_id":4597,"slug":"4597-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 81%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 130 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"71% → 81% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:14.319487Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:11.529419Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1NzoxNC4zMTk0ODcrMDA6MDB8MTExODc","forecast":{"p_pct":"81%","expected_cancellations":28.2,"target":"ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":130,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11187,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11186,"event_id":4510,"slug":"4510-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 83%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 180 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"72% → 83% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:14.287873Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:11.529419Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1NzoxNC4yODc4NzMrMDA6MDB8MTExODY","forecast":{"p_pct":"83%","expected_cancellations":39.5,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":180,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11186,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10848,"event_id":4234,"slug":"4234-atl-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta arrivals back near normal: 14% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:02 AM and 12:02 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 100% at worst → 14% now","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:02:40.215454Z","time":"12:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:02:00Z","time":"12:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:02:39.950681Z","time":"12:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzowMjo0MC4yMTU0NTQrMDA6MDB8MTA4NDg","measurement":{"window":"11:02 AM–12:02 PM EST","n":21,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"14%","baseline_pct":"17%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10848,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10725,"event_id":4591,"slug":"4591-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta departure delays worsen: 69% late in the last hour","body":"Of 35 departures that took off between 10:35 AM and 11:35 AM EST, 24 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 54% → 69%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:35:56.894444Z","time":"11:35 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:35 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:35:00Z","time":"11:35 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:35 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:35 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:35:56.763543Z","time":"11:35 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:35 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjozNTo1Ni44OTQ0NDQrMDA6MDB8MTA3MjU","measurement":{"window":"10:35 AM–11:35 AM EST","n":35,"late_n":24,"share_pct":"69%","baseline_pct":"16%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":42.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10725,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10623,"event_id":4410,"slug":"4410-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 70%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 203 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"56% → 70% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:35.513209Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS41MTMyMDkrMDA6MDB8MTA2MjM","forecast":{"p_pct":"70%","expected_cancellations":85.1,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":203,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10623,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10622,"event_id":4337,"slug":"4337-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 72%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 179 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"59% → 72% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:35.488776Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS40ODg3NzYrMDA6MDB8MTA2MjI","forecast":{"p_pct":"72%","expected_cancellations":81.9,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":179,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10622,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10165,"event_id":4452,"slug":"4452-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 259 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 29%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 260 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 21%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 140 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 21%; calm-weather level 10%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.290244Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy4yOTAyNDQrMDA6MDB8OTg4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"21%","expected_cancellations":10.4,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":140,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9886,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9698,"event_id":4245,"slug":"4245-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 78% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.395482Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi4zOTU0ODIrMDA6MDB8OTY5OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"78%","expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"ATL departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9698,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9617,"event_id":4226,"slug":"4226-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta departures running late: 94% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 9:15 PM and 10:15 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). 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We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:41 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:32 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:45:05.322624Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:45 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:41:13.601000Z","time":"5:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:45:05.281303Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:45 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo0NTowNS4zMjI2MjQrMDA6MDB8OTQwMQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9401,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9384,"event_id":4116,"slug":"4116-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:15 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:05 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:18:22.653046Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:15:54.563000Z","time":"5:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:18:22.628529Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjoxODoyMi42NTMwNDYrMDA6MDB8OTM4NA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9384,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9365,"event_id":4058,"slug":"4058-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:00 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:49 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.229639Z","time":"5:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:48.360000Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.187331Z","time":"5:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjowMzo1MS4yMjk2MzkrMDA6MDB8OTM2NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9365,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9239,"event_id":4031,"slug":"4031-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 212 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 84% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.776534Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS43NzY1MzQrMDA6MDB8OTIzOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":19.2,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":212,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9239,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8875,"event_id":3891,"slug":"3891-atl-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 33%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 208 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Friday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 33% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.179872Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4xNzk4NzIrMDA6MDB8ODg3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"33%","expected_cancellations":2.0,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":208,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8875,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8866,"event_id":3848,"slug":"3848-atl-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta departures back near normal: 6% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 5:59 AM and 6:59 AM EST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 87% at worst → 6% now","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:59:07.029296Z","time":"6:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:59:00Z","time":"6:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:59:06.890611Z","time":"6:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1OTowNy4wMjkyOTYrMDA6MDB8ODg2Ng","measurement":{"window":"5:59 AM–6:59 AM EST","n":16,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"6%","baseline_pct":"10%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8866,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1OTowNy4wMjkyOTYrMDA6MDB8ODg2Ng","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0Ny42OTAwNDErMDA6MDB8MTIwNjY","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 24 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 247 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 24 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 32%, near normal

\n

What changed: 43% → 32%; calm-weather level 12%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 163 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 32%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 210 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 49%

\n

What changed: 60% → 49% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 265 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Atlanta arrival delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 46% → 67%

\n \n

Of 49 arrivals that landed between 4:54 PM and 5:54 PM EST, 33 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 4:54 PM–5:54 PM ESTSample 49 flightsLate 67%Typical 17%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 81%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 81%

\n

What changed: 71% → 81% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 130 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 81%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 83%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 83%

\n

What changed: 72% → 83% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 180 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 83%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n ATL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Atlanta arrivals back near normal: 14% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 100% at worst → 14% now

\n \n

Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:02 AM and 12:02 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 11:02 AM–12:02 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 14%Typical 17%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Atlanta departure delays worsen: 69% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 54% → 69%

\n \n

Of 35 departures that took off between 10:35 AM and 11:35 AM EST, 24 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:35 AM–11:35 AM ESTSample 35 flightsLate 69%Typical 16%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 70%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 70%

\n

What changed: 56% → 70% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 203 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 70%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 72%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 72%

\n

What changed: 59% → 72% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 179 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 72%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 23 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 259 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 26 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 29%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 29%, near normal

\n

What changed: 60% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 260 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 29%Horizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 26 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 21%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 21%, near normal

\n

What changed: 48% → 21%; calm-weather level 10%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 140 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 21%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 30 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 78%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 78%

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What changed: 58% → 78% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Atlanta midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 78%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 32 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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Atlanta departures running late: 94% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 17 departures that took off between 9:15 PM and 10:15 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 9:15 PM–10:15 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 94%Typical 25%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 33 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 8:25 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 7:46 PM EST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 35 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 94%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 94%

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What changed: 82% → 94% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 143 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 94% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 94%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 36 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:05 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 6:04 PM EST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 36 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:41 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:32 PM EST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 37 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:15 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:05 PM EST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 37 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:00 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:49 PM EST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 37 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%

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What changed: 53% → 84% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 212 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 45 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 33%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 33%

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What changed: 44% → 33% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 208 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Friday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 33%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 47 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n ATL\n departures\n \n \n
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Atlanta departures back near normal: 6% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 87% at worst → 6% now

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Of 16 departures that took off between 5:59 AM and 6:59 AM EST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 5:59 AM–6:59 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 6%Typical 10%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View ATL\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=ATL"}