{"items":[{"id":10166,"event_id":4313,"slug":"4313-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 178 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 18 → 22 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.953592Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozMy45NTM1OTIrMDA6MDB8MTAxNjY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":22.0,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":178,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10166,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10165,"event_id":4452,"slug":"4452-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 259 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.947859Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozMy45NDc4NTkrMDA6MDB8MTAxNjU","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":33.0,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":259,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10165,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10064,"event_id":4411,"slug":"4411-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 17 cancellations among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 203 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.336231Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4zMzYyMzErMDA6MDB8MTAwNjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.3,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":203,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10064,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10062,"event_id":4247,"slug":"4247-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 259 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 17 → 26 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.327724Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4zMjc3MjQrMDA6MDB8MTAwNjI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":26.5,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":259,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10062,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10061,"event_id":4168,"slug":"4168-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 140 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 16 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.321258Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4zMjEyNTgrMDA6MDB8MTAwNjE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.0,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":140,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10061,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10060,"event_id":4410,"slug":"4410-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 203 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.317084Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4zMTcwODQrMDA6MDB8MTAwNjA","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":17.3,"target":"ATL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":203,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10060,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10059,"event_id":4337,"slug":"4337-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 48%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 178 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"32% → 48% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.283909Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4yODM5MDkrMDA6MDB8MTAwNTk","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":17.8,"target":"ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":178,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10059,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9887,"event_id":4246,"slug":"4246-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 29%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 260 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.293970Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy4yOTM5NzArMDA6MDB8OTg4Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"29%","expected_cancellations":17.5,"target":"ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":260,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9887,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9886,"event_id":4191,"slug":"4191-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 21%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 140 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 21%; calm-weather level 10%","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.290244Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy4yOTAyNDQrMDA6MDB8OTg4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"21%","expected_cancellations":10.4,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":140,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9886,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9700,"event_id":4289,"slug":"4289-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among Atlanta departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 19 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.404893Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi40MDQ4OTMrMDA6MDB8OTcwMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"ATL departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9700,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9698,"event_id":4245,"slug":"4245-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 78%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Atlanta midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 78% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.395482Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi4zOTU0ODIrMDA6MDB8OTY5OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"78%","expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"ATL departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9698,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9625,"event_id":4234,"slug":"4234-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta arrivals running late: 100% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 9:31 PM and 10:31 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:46.227106Z","time":"10:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:00Z","time":"10:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:31:45.883923Z","time":"10:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzozMTo0Ni4yMjcxMDYrMDA6MDB8OTYyNQ","measurement":{"window":"9:31 PM–10:31 PM EST","n":15,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"17%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":270.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9625,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9617,"event_id":4226,"slug":"4226-atl-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Atlanta departures running late: 94% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 9:15 PM and 10:15 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:15:22.788503Z","time":"10:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:15:00Z","time":"10:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:15:22.699108Z","time":"10:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzoxNToyMi43ODg1MDMrMDA6MDB8OTYxNw","measurement":{"window":"9:15 PM–10:15 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":16,"share_pct":"94%","baseline_pct":"25%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":279.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9617,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9552,"event_id":4166,"slug":"4166-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 8:25 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 7:46 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:29:31.887024Z","time":"8:29 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:29 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:25:13.511000Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:29:31.812731Z","time":"8:29 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:29 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyOTozMS44ODcwMjQrMDA6MDB8OTU1Mg","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9552,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9518,"event_id":4063,"slug":"4063-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 47 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 47 of the 137 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 31 → 47 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.212700Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yMTI3MDArMDA6MDB8OTUxOA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":47.3,"target":"ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":137,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9518,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9465,"event_id":4032,"slug":"4032-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 94%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 143 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 94% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"82% → 94% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.333241Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS4zMzMyNDErMDA6MDB8OTQ2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"94%","expected_cancellations":30.9,"target":"ATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":143,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9465,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9442,"event_id":4143,"slug":"4143-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:05 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 6:04 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:07:52.805878Z","time":"6:07 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:07 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:07 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:05:51.155000Z","time":"6:05 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:05 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:05 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:07:52.704926Z","time":"6:07 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:07 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:07 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzowNzo1Mi44MDU4NzgrMDA6MDB8OTQ0Mg","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9442,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9417,"event_id":4062,"slug":"4062-atl-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 208 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 19 → 22 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:57:31.773417Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:57:30.715189Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo1NzozMS43NzM0MTcrMDA6MDB8OTQxNw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":22.1,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":208,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9417,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9401,"event_id":4126,"slug":"4126-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:41 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:32 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:45:05.322624Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:45 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:41:13.601000Z","time":"5:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:45:05.281303Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:45 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo0NTowNS4zMjI2MjQrMDA6MDB8OTQwMQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9401,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9384,"event_id":4116,"slug":"4116-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:15 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:05 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:18:22.653046Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:15:54.563000Z","time":"5:15 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:15 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:18:22.628529Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjoxODoyMi42NTMwNDYrMDA6MDB8OTM4NA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9384,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9365,"event_id":4058,"slug":"4058-atl-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:00 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:49 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.229639Z","time":"5:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:48.360000Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.187331Z","time":"5:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjowMzo1MS4yMjk2MzkrMDA6MDB8OTM2NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9365,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9239,"event_id":4031,"slug":"4031-atl-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 212 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 84% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["ATL"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.776534Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS43NzY1MzQrMDA6MDB8OTIzOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":19.2,"target":"ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":212,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9239,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozMy45NTM1OTIrMDA6MDB8MTAxNjY","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ATL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n ▲ about 18 → 22 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n 42% risk\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n ATL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n NEW\n \n

Model expects about 17 cancellations among Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n ~17 cancellations\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ATL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n ▲ about 17 → 26 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +5Show all 5 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ATL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n ▲ about 10 → 16 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Atlanta departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 48%

\n ▲ 32% → 48% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 29%, near normal

\n 60% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 21%, near normal

\n 48% → 21%; calm-weather level 10%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ATL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among Atlanta departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

\n ~8 cancellations\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 78%

\n ▲ 58% → 78% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n ATL\n ARR\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Atlanta arrivals running late: 100% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 100% late\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Atlanta departures running late: 94% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 94% late\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ATL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 47 among Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n ▲ about 31 → 47 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED · LATE\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 94%

\n ▲ 82% → 94% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ATL\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ▲ about 19 → 22 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Atlanta

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n ATL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%

\n ▲ 53% → 84% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n
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"],"filters":"airport=ATL&view=terminal"}