{"items":[{"id":10593,"event_id":4557,"slug":"4557-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 8 among Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 20 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 8 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.256226Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"just now","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"57 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"just now","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4yNTYyMjYrMDA6MDB8MTA1OTM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.2,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":20,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"57 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10593,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10592,"event_id":4485,"slug":"4485-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 68%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 68% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.250325Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"just now","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"57 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"8:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"just now","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4yNTAzMjUrMDA6MDB8MTA1OTI","forecast":{"p_pct":"68%","expected_cancellations":12.9,"target":"AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"57 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10592,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10520,"event_id":4553,"slug":"4553-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 62%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 62% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:08.383034Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:05.802777Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowOC4zODMwMzQrMDA6MDB8MTA1MjA","forecast":{"p_pct":"62%","expected_cancellations":7.6,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":20,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10520,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10519,"event_id":4375,"slug":"4375-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 70%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 70% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:08.365769Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:05.802777Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"31 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowOC4zNjU3NjkrMDA6MDB8MTA1MTk","forecast":{"p_pct":"70%","expected_cancellations":16.1,"target":"AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10519,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10402,"event_id":4556,"slug":"4556-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 13 cancellations among Austin departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 45 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.215414Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4yMTU0MTQrMDA6MDB8MTA0MDI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.0,"target":"AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10402,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10401,"event_id":4555,"slug":"4555-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 16 cancellations among Austin departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 56 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.210154Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4yMTAxNTQrMDA6MDB8MTA0MDE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.4,"target":"AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10401,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10400,"event_id":4554,"slug":"4554-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 10 cancellations among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 33 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.203621Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4yMDM2MjErMDA6MDB8MTA0MDA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.8,"target":"AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10400,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10398,"event_id":4484,"slug":"4484-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.195063Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4xOTUwNjMrMDA6MDB8MTAzOTg","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":9.8,"target":"AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10398,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10250,"event_id":4273,"slug":"4273-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.979621Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:58 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:58 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45Nzk2MjErMDA6MDB8MTAwMzk","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10039,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9938,"event_id":4328,"slug":"4328-aus-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:08.791707Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowOC43OTE3MDcrMDA6MDB8OTkzOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9938,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9861,"event_id":4272,"slug":"4272-aus-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 AM Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 31%; calm-weather level 8%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.620778Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS42MjA3NzgrMDA6MDB8OTg2MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":7.1,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9861,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. 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AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9499,"event_id":4159,"slug":"4159-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 45 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.630279Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS42MzAyNzkrMDA6MDB8OTQ5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.0,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9499,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9498,"event_id":4158,"slug":"4158-aus-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 84% delay risk for Austin departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.627156Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS42MjcxNTYrMDA6MDB8OTQ5OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"AUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9498,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9327,"event_id":3917,"slug":"3917-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 88%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"67% → 88% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.335914Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zMzU5MTQrMDA6MDB8OTMyNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"88%","expected_cancellations":2.0,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":49,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9327,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9128,"event_id":3916,"slug":"3916-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 65%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 65% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:32.890350Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:27.665969Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDoyNzozMi44OTAzNTArMDA6MDB8OTEyOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"65%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9128,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9106,"event_id":3995,"slug":"3995-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departure delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM CST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 54% → 74%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:50:34.604418Z","time":"1:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:50:00Z","time":"1:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:50:33.793694Z","time":"1:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxOTo1MDozNC42MDQ0MTgrMDA6MDB8OTEwNg","measurement":{"window":"12:50 PM–1:50 PM CST","n":19,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"74%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":23.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9106,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9046,"event_id":3915,"slug":"3915-aus-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 36%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 36%; calm-weather level 30%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.617813Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:14.641613Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo1NjoxNS42MTc4MTMrMDA6MDB8OTA0Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"36%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9046,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9030,"event_id":3937,"slug":"3937-aus-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 53% at worst → 7% now","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:45:59.532902Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:45:00Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:45:58.906273Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo0NTo1OS41MzI5MDIrMDA6MDB8OTAzMA","measurement":{"window":"10:45 AM–11:45 AM CST","n":15,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9030,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8507,"event_id":3744,"slug":"3744-aus-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departure delays ease: 68% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 4:34 PM and 5:34 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 72% → 68%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:34:39.452367Z","time":"5:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:34:00Z","time":"5:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:34 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:34:38.642624Z","time":"5:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzozNDozOS40NTIzNjcrMDA6MDB8ODUwNw","measurement":{"window":"4:34 PM–5:34 PM CST","n":19,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"68%","baseline_pct":"38%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":19.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8092,"event_id":3540,"slug":"3540-aus-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departures back near normal: 8% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 8:29 AM and 9:29 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 22% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 45% at worst → 8% now","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:29:08.713718Z","time":"9:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:29:00Z","time":"9:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:29 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:29:07.384012Z","time":"9:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNToyOTowOC43MTM3MTgrMDA6MDB8ODA5Mg","measurement":{"window":"8:29 AM–9:29 AM CST","n":12,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"8%","baseline_pct":"12%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8092,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNToyOTowOC43MTM3MTgrMDA6MDB8ODA5Mg","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4yNTYyMjYrMDA6MDB8MTA1OTM","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n just now\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 8 among Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 8 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 20 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n just now\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 68%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 68%

\n

What changed: 57% → 68% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 68%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 31 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 62%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 62%

\n

What changed: 50% → 62% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 62%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 31 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 70%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 70%

\n

What changed: 60% → 70% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 70%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 13 cancellations among Austin departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 45 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 7.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 16 cancellations among Austin departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 56 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 10 cancellations among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 33 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 59%

\n

What changed: 44% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 59%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday

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What changed: about 3 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

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What changed: 41% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 30%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

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What changed: 44% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 30%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 7 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 31%, near normal

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What changed: 40% → 31%; calm-weather level 8%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 AM Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 31%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 6 cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 45 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 84% delay risk for Austin departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 84%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 88%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 88%

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What changed: 67% → 88% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 88%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 18 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 18 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 65%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 65%

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What changed: 49% → 65% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 65%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 19 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Austin departure delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 54% → 74%

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Of 19 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM CST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 12:50 PM–1:50 PM CSTSample 19 flightsLate 74%Typical 27%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 21 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 36%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 36%, near normal

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What changed: 40% → 36%; calm-weather level 30%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 36%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 21 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Austin departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 53% at worst → 7% now

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Of 15 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 10:45 AM–11:45 AM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 19%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 39 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Austin departure delays ease: 68% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 72% → 68%

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Of 19 departures that took off between 4:34 PM and 5:34 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 4:34 PM–5:34 PM CSTSample 19 flightsLate 68%Typical 38%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Austin departures back near normal: 8% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 45% at worst → 8% now

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Of 12 departures that took off between 8:29 AM and 9:29 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 22% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 8:29 AM–9:29 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 8%Typical 12%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=AUS"}