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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 2","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:36.562412Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi41NjI0MTIrMDA6MDB8MTA3MDM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.0,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":20,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10703,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10400,"event_id":4554,"slug":"4554-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 10 cancellations among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 33 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.203621Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4yMDM2MjErMDA6MDB8MTA0MDA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.8,"target":"AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10400,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10250,"event_id":4273,"slug":"4273-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 3 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.553505Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC41NTM1MDUrMDA6MDB8MTAyNTA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.3,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10250,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9499,"event_id":4159,"slug":"4159-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 45 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.630279Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS42MzAyNzkrMDA6MDB8OTQ5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.0,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9499,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxOToyNjowOC42NjczOTUrMDA6MDB8MTMwNDQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 56 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Austin departures 6–9 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 56 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Austin departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Austin departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 13 → 10 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 68 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 21 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 23 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Austin departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 45 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 27 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Austin departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 57 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 28 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 8 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 20 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 30 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 10 cancellations among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 33 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 32 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 3 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 44 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 45 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=AUS"}