{"items":[{"id":10592,"event_id":4485,"slug":"4485-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 68%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 62%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 65% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:32.890350Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:27.665969Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDoyNzozMi44OTAzNTArMDA6MDB8OTEyOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"65%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9128,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9106,"event_id":3995,"slug":"3995-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departure delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM CST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 36%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 36%; calm-weather level 30%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.617813Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:14.641613Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo1NjoxNS42MTc4MTMrMDA6MDB8OTA0Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"36%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9046,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9030,"event_id":3937,"slug":"3937-aus-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 53% at worst → 7% now","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:45:59.532902Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:45:00Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:45:58.906273Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo0NTo1OS41MzI5MDIrMDA6MDB8OTAzMA","measurement":{"window":"10:45 AM–11:45 AM CST","n":15,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9030,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8507,"event_id":3744,"slug":"3744-aus-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departure delays ease: 68% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 4:34 PM and 5:34 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). 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Austin typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 22% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 45% at worst → 8% now","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:29:08.713718Z","time":"9:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:29:00Z","time":"9:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:29 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:29:07.384012Z","time":"9:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNToyOTowOC43MTM3MTgrMDA6MDB8ODA5Mg","measurement":{"window":"8:29 AM–9:29 AM CST","n":12,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"8%","baseline_pct":"12%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8092,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8012,"event_id":3454,"slug":"3454-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). 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Typically 22% of arrivals at Austin arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 68% at worst → 14% now","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:36:17.536136Z","time":"5:36 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:36 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:36 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:36:00Z","time":"5:36 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:36 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:36 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:36:16.636349Z","time":"5:36 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:36 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:36 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMzozNjoxNy41MzYxMzYrMDA6MDB8Nzk3Mw","measurement":{"window":"4:36 PM–5:36 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"14%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7973,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7966,"event_id":3436,"slug":"3436-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday at 58%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 58% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:56:30.085801Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:56:28.329194Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMjo1NjozMC4wODU4MDErMDA6MDB8Nzk2Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":50,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7966,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7933,"event_id":3435,"slug":"3435-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday at 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T08:27:20.910899Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T08:27:19.944924Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwODoyNzoyMC45MTA4OTkrMDA6MDB8Nzg0Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7842,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7809,"event_id":3355,"slug":"3355-aus-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:21 PM and 10:21 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Austin arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 94% at worst → 24% now","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:21:35.254003Z","time":"10:21 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:21 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:21 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:21:00Z","time":"10:21 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:21 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:21 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:21:34.656343Z","time":"10:21 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:21 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:21 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNDoyMTozNS4yNTQwMDMrMDA6MDB8NzgwOQ","measurement":{"window":"9:21 PM–10:21 PM CST","n":17,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7809,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7739,"event_id":3334,"slug":"3334-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 73%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"61% → 73% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:56:39.989787Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:56:33.560786Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMzo1NjozOS45ODk3ODcrMDA6MDB8NzczOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"73%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7739,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7728,"event_id":3350,"slug":"3350-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departure delays worsen: 87% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 4:06 PM and 5:06 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 56% → 87%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:06:36.662408Z","time":"5:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:06:00Z","time":"5:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T23:06:35.521479Z","time":"5:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 23:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMzowNjozNi42NjI0MDgrMDA6MDB8NzcyOA","measurement":{"window":"4:06 PM–5:06 PM CST","n":15,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"87%","baseline_pct":"37%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":36.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7728,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7699,"event_id":3330,"slug":"3330-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 62%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Sunday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 62% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T20:56:06.149876Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T20:56:04.441015Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMDo1NjowNi4xNDk4NzYrMDA6MDB8NzY5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"62%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-08T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7699,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7678,"event_id":3327,"slug":"3327-aus-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 37%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Sunday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 37%; calm-weather level 29%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T17:57:58.224058Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 17:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T17:57:56.091959Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 17:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQxNzo1Nzo1OC4yMjQwNTgrMDA6MDB8NzY3OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"37%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-08T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7678,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQxNzo1Nzo1OC4yMjQwNTgrMDA6MDB8NzY3OA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4yNTAzMjUrMDA6MDB8MTA1OTI","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 10 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 68%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 68%

\n

What changed: 57% → 68% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 68%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 41 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 62%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 62%

\n

What changed: 50% → 62% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 62%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 41 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 70%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 70%

\n

What changed: 60% → 70% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 70%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 59%

\n

What changed: 44% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 59%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

\n

What changed: 41% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 30%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

\n

What changed: 44% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 30%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 8 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 31%, near normal

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What changed: 40% → 31%; calm-weather level 8%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 AM Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 31%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 84% delay risk for Austin departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 84%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 88%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 88%

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What changed: 67% → 88% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 88%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 18 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 65%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 65%

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What changed: 49% → 65% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 65%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 19 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Austin departure delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 54% → 74%

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Of 19 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM CST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 12:50 PM–1:50 PM CSTSample 19 flightsLate 74%Typical 27%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 21 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 36%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 36%, near normal

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What changed: 40% → 36%; calm-weather level 30%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 36%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 21 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Austin departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 53% at worst → 7% now

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Of 15 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 10:45 AM–11:45 AM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 19%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 39 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Austin departure delays ease: 68% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 72% → 68%

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Of 19 departures that took off between 4:34 PM and 5:34 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 4:34 PM–5:34 PM CSTSample 19 flightsLate 68%Typical 38%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Austin departures back near normal: 8% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 45% at worst → 8% now

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Of 12 departures that took off between 8:29 AM and 9:29 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 22% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 8:29 AM–9:29 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 8%Typical 12%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Austin departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 67% → 85%

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Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 8:21 PM–9:21 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 42%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n AUS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Austin arrivals back near normal: 14% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 68% at worst → 14% now

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Of 14 arrivals that landed between 4:36 PM and 5:36 PM CST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Austin arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 4:36 PM–5:36 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 14%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 58%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday at 58%

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What changed: 44% → 58% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 58%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday at 55%

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What changed: 44% → 55% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 55%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 43%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n AUS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Austin arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 94% at worst → 24% now

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Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:21 PM and 10:21 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Austin arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 9:21 PM–10:21 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 73%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 73%

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What changed: 61% → 73% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 73%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Austin departure delays worsen: 87% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 56% → 87%

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Of 15 departures that took off between 4:06 PM and 5:06 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 4:06 PM–5:06 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 87%Typical 37%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 62%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 62%

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What changed: 50% → 62% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Sunday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 62%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 37%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n AUS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 37%, near normal

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What changed: 40% → 37%; calm-weather level 29%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Sunday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 37%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View AUS\n \n \n
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