{"items":[{"id":10971,"event_id":4690,"slug":"4690-aus-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departures running late: 85% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:23:02.387237Z","time":"12:23 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:23 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:23 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:23:00Z","time":"12:23 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:23 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:23 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:23:01.660687Z","time":"12:23 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:23 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:23 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODoyMzowMi4zODcyMzcrMDA6MDB8MTA5NzE","measurement":{"window":"11:23 AM–12:23 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"85%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":23.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10971,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10940,"event_id":4553,"slug":"4553-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 75%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"62% → 75% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.733409Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS43MzM0MDkrMDA6MDB8MTA5NDA","forecast":{"p_pct":"75%","expected_cancellations":3.6,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":20,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10940,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10939,"event_id":4485,"slug":"4485-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 83%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"68% → 83% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.730666Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS43MzA2NjYrMDA6MDB8MTA5Mzk","forecast":{"p_pct":"83%","expected_cancellations":6.6,"target":"AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":44,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10939,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10938,"event_id":4375,"slug":"4375-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 81%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"70% → 81% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.728032Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS43MjgwMzIrMDA6MDB8MTA5Mzg","forecast":{"p_pct":"81%","expected_cancellations":8.5,"target":"AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10938,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10824,"event_id":4556,"slug":"4556-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among Austin departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 44 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 6 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.338710Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4zMzg3MTArMDA6MDB8MTA4MjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.1,"target":"AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":44,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10824,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10823,"event_id":4555,"slug":"4555-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Austin departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 57 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.334633Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4zMzQ2MzMrMDA6MDB8MTA4MjM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.8,"target":"AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10823,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10703,"event_id":4557,"slug":"4557-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 20 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 2","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:36.562412Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi41NjI0MTIrMDA6MDB8MTA3MDM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.0,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":20,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10703,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10400,"event_id":4554,"slug":"4554-aus-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 10 cancellations among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 33 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.203621Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4yMDM2MjErMDA6MDB8MTA0MDA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.8,"target":"AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10400,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10398,"event_id":4484,"slug":"4484-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.979621Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:58 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:58 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45Nzk2MjErMDA6MDB8MTAwMzk","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10039,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9938,"event_id":4328,"slug":"4328-aus-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:08.791707Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowOC43OTE3MDcrMDA6MDB8OTkzOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9938,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9861,"event_id":4272,"slug":"4272-aus-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 31%; calm-weather level 8%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.620778Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS42MjA3NzgrMDA6MDB8OTg2MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":7.1,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9861,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.627156Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS42MjcxNTYrMDA6MDB8OTQ5OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"AUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9498,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9327,"event_id":3917,"slug":"3917-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"67% → 88% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.335914Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zMzU5MTQrMDA6MDB8OTMyNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"88%","expected_cancellations":2.0,"target":"AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":49,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9327,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9128,"event_id":3916,"slug":"3916-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 65%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 65% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:32.890350Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:27.665969Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDoyNzozMi44OTAzNTArMDA6MDB8OTEyOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"65%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9128,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9106,"event_id":3995,"slug":"3995-aus-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departure delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM CST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 54% → 74%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:50:34.604418Z","time":"1:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:50:00Z","time":"1:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:50:33.793694Z","time":"1:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxOTo1MDozNC42MDQ0MTgrMDA6MDB8OTEwNg","measurement":{"window":"12:50 PM–1:50 PM CST","n":19,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"74%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":23.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9106,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9046,"event_id":3915,"slug":"3915-aus-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 36%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 36%; calm-weather level 30%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.617813Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:14.641613Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo1NjoxNS42MTc4MTMrMDA6MDB8OTA0Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"36%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9046,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9030,"event_id":3937,"slug":"3937-aus-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 53% at worst → 7% now","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:45:59.532902Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:45:00Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:45:58.906273Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo0NTo1OS41MzI5MDIrMDA6MDB8OTAzMA","measurement":{"window":"10:45 AM–11:45 AM CST","n":15,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"7%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9030,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8507,"event_id":3744,"slug":"3744-aus-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Austin departure delays ease: 68% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 4:34 PM and 5:34 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 72% → 68%","airports":["AUS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:34:39.452367Z","time":"5:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:34:00Z","time":"5:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:34 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:34:38.642624Z","time":"5:34 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:34 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzozNDozOS40NTIzNjcrMDA6MDB8ODUwNw","measurement":{"window":"4:34 PM–5:34 PM CST","n":19,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"68%","baseline_pct":"38%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":19.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzozNDozOS40NTIzNjcrMDA6MDB8ODUwNw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODoyMzowMi4zODcyMzcrMDA6MDB8MTA5NzE","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Austin departures running late: 85% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 85% late\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 75%

\n ▲ 62% → 75% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 83%

\n ▲ 68% → 83% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +6Show all 6 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 81%

\n ▲ 70% → 81% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among Austin departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n ▲ about 4 → 6 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Austin departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n ▲ about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast\n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday to about 2

\n about 8 → 2\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model expects about 10 cancellations among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n ~10 cancellations\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 59%

\n ▲ 44% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +5Show all 5 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n AUS\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n ▲ about 3 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

\n 41% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

\n 44% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 31%, near normal

\n 40% → 31%; calm-weather level 8%\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ~6 cancellations\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 84% delay risk for Austin departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n 84% risk\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 88%

\n ▲ 67% → 88% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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\n +Show details\n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 65%

\n ▲ 49% → 65% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Austin departure delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 54% → 74%\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 36%, near normal

\n 40% → 36%; calm-weather level 30%\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Austin departures back near normal: 7% late in the last hour

\n late share 53% at worst → 7% now\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n AUS\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Austin departure delays ease: 68% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 72% → 68%\n
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"],"filters":"airport=AUS&view=terminal"}