{"items":[{"id":12275,"event_id":5061,"slug":"5061-bna-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among Nashville departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.185934Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4xODU5MzQrMDA6MDB8MTIyNzU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.4,"target":"BNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12275,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12274,"event_id":5015,"slug":"5015-bna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Nashville departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 63%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Sunday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 63% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.183617Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4xODM2MTcrMDA6MDB8MTIyNzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"63%","expected_cancellations":5.4,"target":"BNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12274,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12273,"event_id":4952,"slug":"4952-bna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 65%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Sunday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"46% → 65% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.180985Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4xODA5ODUrMDA6MDB8MTIyNzM","forecast":{"p_pct":"65%","expected_cancellations":5.0,"target":"BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":66,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12273,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12272,"event_id":4893,"slug":"4893-bna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 63%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 63% since the 11:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.177581Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4xNzc1ODErMDA6MDB8MTIyNzI","forecast":{"p_pct":"63%","expected_cancellations":5.6,"target":"BNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":72,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12272,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12271,"event_id":5060,"slug":"5060-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 AM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.172815Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4xNzI4MTUrMDA6MDB8MTIyNzE","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":6.6,"target":"BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12271,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12135,"event_id":5016,"slug":"5016-bna-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Nashville departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 66 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.378194Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC4zNzgxOTQrMDA6MDB8MTIxMzU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.7,"target":"BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":66,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12135,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12134,"event_id":4794,"slug":"4794-bna-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 64 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 7 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.360863Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC4zNjA4NjMrMDA6MDB8MTIxMzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.8,"target":"BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":12134,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11963,"event_id":4871,"slug":"4871-bna-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 72 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 6 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:56:04.807501Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:56:04.147995Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwODo1NjowNC44MDc1MDErMDA6MDB8MTE5NjM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.6,"target":"BNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":72,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11963,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11448,"event_id":4612,"slug":"4612-bna-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville departure delays ease: 68% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 6:11 PM and 7:11 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Nashville departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 21 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:57:37.126956Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:57:36.188611Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMzo1NzozNy4xMjY5NTYrMDA6MDB8MTEzOTg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.3,"target":"BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":21,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11398,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11207,"event_id":4480,"slug":"4480-bna-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Nashville departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 70 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 30 → 15 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:14.799794Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:11.529419Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1NzoxNC43OTk3OTQrMDA6MDB8MTEyMDc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.6,"target":"BNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":70,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":11207,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11153,"event_id":4547,"slug":"4547-bna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 76%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Saturday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"66% → 76% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:19.079479Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:12.179045Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDoyNjoxOS4wNzk0NzkrMDA6MDB8MTExNTM","forecast":{"p_pct":"76%","expected_cancellations":9.0,"target":"BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":21,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11153,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11074,"event_id":4713,"slug":"4713-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals running late: 81% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 arrivals that landed between 12:32 PM and 1:32 PM CST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:32:38.838170Z","time":"1:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:32 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:32:00Z","time":"1:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:32 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:32:38.074966Z","time":"1:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:32 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxOTozMjozOC44MzgxNzArMDA6MDB8MTEwNzQ","measurement":{"window":"12:32 PM–1:32 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"81%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":83.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11074,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11031,"event_id":4479,"slug":"4479-bna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 83%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"68% → 83% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:52.114030Z","time":"12:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"12:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1Mi4xMTQwMzArMDA6MDB8MTEwMzE","forecast":{"p_pct":"83%","expected_cancellations":10.6,"target":"BNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":70,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11031,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10928,"event_id":4439,"slug":"4439-bna-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Nashville departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.687239Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42ODcyMzkrMDA6MDB8MTA5Mjg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.0,"target":"BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10928,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10866,"event_id":4670,"slug":"4670-bna-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Nashville: 10 of 15 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 24 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 11:45 AM and 1:15 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 4 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:45:51.130716Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:45:00Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:45:48.294106Z","time":"11:45 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:45 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo0NTo1MS4xMzA3MTYrMDA6MDB8MTA4NjY","measure":{"chips":[["Next","11:45 AM–1:15 PM CST"],["Tight turns","10 of 15"],["Share","67%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","11:45 AM–1:15 PM CST · 24 departures, aircraft known for 15"],["Tight turns","10 (67%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","4 not taken off · 5 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 492 to BDL at 11:53 AM: aircraft N8869L, inbound WN 2739 from MCO (not departed), -101 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 536 to DAL at 12:03 PM: aircraft N8612K, inbound WN 1912 from MYR (airborne), -76 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3860 to PHL at 12:23 PM: aircraft N8639B, inbound WN 2534 from ATL (not departed), -66 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1270 to PIT at 12:26 PM: aircraft N9032R, inbound WN 1181 from AUS (not departed), -57 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1076 to PHX at 12:10 PM: aircraft N298WN, inbound WN 1076 from DTW (airborne), -41 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10866,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10816,"event_id":4371,"slug":"4371-bna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 78%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Saturday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"65% → 78% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.289512Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4yODk1MTIrMDA6MDB8MTA4MTY","forecast":{"p_pct":"78%","expected_cancellations":8.2,"target":"BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10816,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10692,"event_id":4548,"slug":"4548-bna-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Nashville departures 6–9 PM Saturday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 21 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 17 among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 54 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 17 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.421039Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC40MjEwMzkrMDA6MDB8MTAyMzY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.0,"target":"BNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":54,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10236,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10235,"event_id":4215,"slug":"4215-bna-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 72 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 AM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 5 cancellations among Nashville departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 63%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Nashville departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 63%

\n

What changed: 49% → 63% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Sunday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 63%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 65%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 65%

\n

What changed: 46% → 65% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Sunday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 65%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 63%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 63%

\n

What changed: 49% → 63% since the 11:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 63%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 15 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 AM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Nashville departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 66 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 7 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 64 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 6 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 72 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Nashville departure delays ease: 68% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 87% → 68%

\n \n

Of 19 departures that took off between 6:11 PM and 7:11 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:11 PM–7:11 PM CSTSample 19 flightsLate 68%Typical 39%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Nashville departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 21 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Nashville departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 30 → 15 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 70 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 76%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 76%

\n

What changed: 66% → 76% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Saturday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 76%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Nashville arrivals running late: 81% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 16 arrivals that landed between 12:32 PM and 1:32 PM CST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:32 PM–1:32 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 81%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 83%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 83%

\n

What changed: 68% → 83% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 83%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Nashville departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Nashville: 10 of 15 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 24 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 11:45 AM and 1:15 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 4 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 11:45 AM–1:15 PM CSTTight turns 10 of 15Share 67%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 78%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 78%

\n

What changed: 65% → 78% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Saturday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 78%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Nashville departures 6–9 PM Saturday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 7 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 21 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 21 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 59%

\n

What changed: 46% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 59%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 17 among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 17 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 54 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~17 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 26 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 72 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~26 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 AM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal

\n

What changed: 43% → 31%; calm-weather level 13%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 31%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 25%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 25%, near normal

\n

What changed: 41% → 25%; calm-weather level 8%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 AM Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 25%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 29 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Nashville arrivals running late: 92% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 11:37 PM and 12:37 AM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:37 PM–12:37 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=BNA"}