{"items":[{"id":8986,"event_id":3949,"slug":"3949-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville departures running late: 43% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 9:07 AM and 10:07 AM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 14% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:07:51.246973Z","time":"10:07 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"just now","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:07 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:07 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:07:00Z","time":"10:07 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:07 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:07 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:07:50.766527Z","time":"10:07 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"just now","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:07 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:07 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNjowNzo1MS4yNDY5NzMrMDA6MDB8ODk4Ng","measurement":{"window":"9:07 AM–10:07 AM CST","n":14,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"43%","baseline_pct":"14%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":9.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8986,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8959,"event_id":3938,"slug":"3938-bna-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Nashville: 10 of 32 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 37 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 9:49 AM and 11:19 AM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 32. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:49:27.993134Z","time":"9:49 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:49 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:49 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:49:00Z","time":"9:49 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:49 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:49 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:49:26.626644Z","time":"9:49 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:49 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:49 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo0OToyNy45OTMxMzQrMDA6MDB8ODk1OQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","9:49 AM–11:19 AM CST"],["Tight turns","10 of 32"],["Share","31%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","9:49 AM–11:19 AM CST · 37 departures, aircraft known for 32"],["Tight turns","10 (31%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 712 to SDF at 10:18 AM: aircraft N938WN, inbound WN 3813 from SDF (airborne), -6 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2649 to CLE at 10:24 AM: aircraft N8849Q, inbound WN 2555 from LGA (airborne), 5 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 481 to ATL at 10:16 AM: aircraft N8866H, inbound WN 1643 from STL (airborne), 6 min to turn"],["Tightest","MQ 3340 to ORD at 10:35 AM: aircraft N779RN, inbound MQ 3340 from ORD (airborne), 14 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 606 to LGA at 11:10 AM: aircraft N8528Q, inbound WN 962 from BWI (airborne), 17 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8959,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8948,"event_id":3930,"slug":"3930-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:56:28.736190Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:56:27.567741Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDo1NjoyOC43MzYxOTArMDA6MDB8ODk0OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":74,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8948,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8947,"event_id":3929,"slug":"3929-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Nashville departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:56:28.733379Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:56:27.567741Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNDo1NjoyOC43MzMzNzkrMDA6MDB8ODk0Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":69,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T14:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8947,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8863,"event_id":3904,"slug":"3904-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Nashville departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:03.344037Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:02.842857Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4zNDQwMzcrMDA6MDB8ODg2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"BNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":71,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8863,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8824,"event_id":3739,"slug":"3739-bna-aircraft-turns","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Nashville aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 22 departures in the next 90 min are tight","body":"Of the 32 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 4:55 AM and 6:25 AM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.","what_changed":"tight share 50% at worst → 0% now","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:55:43.760034Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:55:00Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:55:42.387047Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMDo1NTo0My43NjAwMzQrMDA6MDB8ODgyNA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","4:55 AM–6:25 AM CST"],["Tight turns","0 of 22"],["Share","0%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","4:55 AM–6:25 AM CST · 32 departures, aircraft known for 22"],["Tight turns","0 (0%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 0 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8824,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8620,"event_id":3811,"slug":"3811-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:45 PM and 8:45 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:45:25.003367Z","time":"8:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:45:00Z","time":"8:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:45:24.632341Z","time":"8:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo0NToyNS4wMDMzNjcrMDA6MDB8ODYyMA","measurement":{"window":"7:45 PM–8:45 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":10.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8620,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8565,"event_id":3693,"slug":"3693-bna-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 66% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.741237Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43NDEyMzcrMDA6MDB8ODU2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8565,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8503,"event_id":3738,"slug":"3738-bna-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 arrivals that landed between 4:28 PM and 5:28 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 47% at worst → 23% now","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:28:31.406509Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:28:00Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:28:30.583130Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzoyODozMS40MDY1MDkrMDA6MDB8ODUwMw","measurement":{"window":"4:28 PM–5:28 PM CST","n":22,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"23%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8503,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8487,"event_id":3693,"slug":"3693-bna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 69%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 69% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:45.856246Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0NS44NTYyNDYrMDA6MDB8ODQ4Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"69%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8565,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8565,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 66%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.741237Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"}}},{"id":8481,"event_id":3739,"slug":"3739-bna-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Nashville: 8 of 17 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 32 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 4:49 PM and 6:19 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:49:35.140507Z","time":"4:49 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:49 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:49 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:49:00Z","time":"4:49 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:49 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:49 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:49:34.050104Z","time":"4:49 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:49 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:49 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo0OTozNS4xNDA1MDcrMDA6MDB8ODQ4MQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","4:49 PM–6:19 PM CST"],["Tight turns","8 of 17"],["Share","47%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","4:49 PM–6:19 PM CST · 32 departures, aircraft known for 17"],["Tight turns","8 (47%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","1 not taken off · 4 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 645 to MCO at 5:29 PM: aircraft N500WR, inbound WN 4669 from SAN (airborne), -35 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1470 to PHX at 5:19 PM: aircraft N8842L, inbound WN 2060 from HOU (airborne), -9 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2729 to SAT at 5:40 PM: aircraft N8863Q, inbound WN 4224 from TPA (airborne), 20 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2971 to DTW at 4:55 PM: aircraft N8650F, inbound WN 4098 from SRQ (landed), 22 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 359 to JAX at 5:55 PM: aircraft N944WN, inbound WN 359 from MEM (not departed), 26 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8824,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8824,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Nashville aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 22 departures in the next 90 min are tight","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:55:43.760034Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:55 UTC"}}},{"id":8478,"event_id":3738,"slug":"3738-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals running late: 47% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 3:26 PM and 4:26 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:27:00.274306Z","time":"4:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:26:00Z","time":"4:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:26:59.223765Z","time":"4:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjoyNzowMC4yNzQzMDYrMDA6MDB8ODQ3OA","measurement":{"window":"3:26 PM–4:26 PM CST","n":15,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"47%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8503,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8503,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Nashville arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:28:31.406509Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:28 UTC"}}},{"id":8425,"event_id":3709,"slug":"3709-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Nashville departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:56:48.041221Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:56:46.376340Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDo1Njo0OC4wNDEyMjErMDA6MDB8ODQyNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"BNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8425,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8404,"event_id":3693,"slug":"3693-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.327594Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS4zMjc1OTQrMDA6MDB8ODQwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"BNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8565,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8565,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 66%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.741237Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"}}},{"id":8403,"event_id":3692,"slug":"3692-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.268235Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS4yNjgyMzUrMDA6MDB8ODQwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":79,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8403,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8393,"event_id":3687,"slug":"3687-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 1:19 PM and 2:19 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:19:42.690601Z","time":"2:19 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:19 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:19 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:19:00Z","time":"2:19 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:19 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:19 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:19:41.756698Z","time":"2:19 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:19 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:19 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoxOTo0Mi42OTA2MDErMDA6MDB8ODM5Mw","measurement":{"window":"1:19 PM–2:19 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"32%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8393,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8220,"event_id":3609,"slug":"3609-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville departures running late: 71% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 departures that took off between 7:05 PM and 8:05 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 44% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:05:46.431011Z","time":"8:05 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:05 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:05 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:05:00Z","time":"8:05 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:05 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:05 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:05:45.795764Z","time":"8:05 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:05 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:05 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMjowNTo0Ni40MzEwMTErMDA6MDB8ODIyMA","measurement":{"window":"7:05 PM–8:05 PM CST","n":21,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"44%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8220,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8045,"event_id":3526,"slug":"3526-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:37 PM and 11:37 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:37:50.421564Z","time":"11:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:37 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:37:00Z","time":"11:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:37 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:37:49.701285Z","time":"11:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:37 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNTozNzo1MC40MjE1NjQrMDA6MDB8ODA0NQ","measurement":{"window":"10:37 PM–11:37 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8045,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8029,"event_id":3464,"slug":"3464-bna-aircraft-turns","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Nashville aircraft turns back near normal: 2 of 17 departures in the next 90 min are tight","body":"Of the 17 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 10:21 PM and 11:51 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 2 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.","what_changed":"tight share 48% at worst → 12% now","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:21:55.502012Z","time":"10:21 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:21 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:21 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:21:00Z","time":"10:21 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:21 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:21 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:21:53.308802Z","time":"10:21 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:21 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:21 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNDoyMTo1NS41MDIwMTIrMDA6MDB8ODAyOQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","10:21 PM–11:51 PM CST"],["Tight turns","2 of 17"],["Share","12%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","10:21 PM–11:51 PM CST · 17 departures, aircraft known for 17"],["Tight turns","2 (12%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 0 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 2717 to MEM at 10:34 PM: aircraft N8814K, inbound WN 3073 from MIA (landed), 27 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 555 to DEN at 10:23 PM: aircraft N7875A, inbound WN 3188 from MYR (landed), 34 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8029,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7999,"event_id":3483,"slug":"3483-bna-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model now puts Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 52%, close to its calm-weather level of 45%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 52%; calm-weather level 45%","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:26:00.602977Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:25:59.042583Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjoyNjowMC42MDI5NzcrMDA6MDB8Nzk5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"BNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7999,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7965,"event_id":3498,"slug":"3498-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:56:30.047776Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:56:28.329194Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMjo1NjozMC4wNDc3NzYrMDA6MDB8Nzk2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":74,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7965,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7932,"event_id":3483,"slug":"3483-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:57:13.123464Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:57:09.982909Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDo1NzoxMy4xMjM0NjQrMDA6MDB8NzkzMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"BNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7999,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":7999,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model now puts Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 52%, close to its calm-weather level of 45%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:26:00.602977Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:26 UTC"}}},{"id":7903,"event_id":3464,"slug":"3464-bna-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Nashville: 11 of 26 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 31 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 1:11 PM and 2:41 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 26. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:11:20.773970Z","time":"1:11 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:11 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:11 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:11:00Z","time":"1:11 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:11 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:11 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:11:17.613773Z","time":"1:11 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:11 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:11 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxOToxMToyMC43NzM5NzArMDA6MDB8NzkwMw","measure":{"chips":[["Next","1:11 PM–2:41 PM CST"],["Tight turns","11 of 26"],["Share","42%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","1:11 PM–2:41 PM CST · 31 departures, aircraft known for 26"],["Tight turns","11 (42%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","1 not taken off · 7 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 4766 to RDU at 2:39 PM: aircraft N8837Q, inbound WN 2585 from DTW (not departed), 11 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 532 to CLE at 2:28 PM: aircraft N209WN, inbound WN 4805 from SAV (airborne), 13 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2216 to AUS at 2:40 PM: aircraft N8664J, inbound WN 2072 from DEN (airborne), 23 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4485 to MCI at 2:19 PM: aircraft N7886A, inbound WN 3604 from RDU (airborne), 28 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 591 to LAS at 1:17 PM: aircraft N9019R, inbound WN 2215 from AUS (landed), 30 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8029,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8029,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Nashville aircraft turns back near normal: 2 of 17 departures in the next 90 min are tight","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:21:55.502012Z","time":"10:21 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:21 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:21 UTC"}}},{"id":7850,"event_id":3356,"slug":"3356-bna-aircraft-turns","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Nashville aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 17 departures in the next 90 min are tight","body":"Of the 31 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 4:50 AM and 6:20 AM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 34 minutes across 6 checks, each with current data.","what_changed":"tight share 65% at worst → 0% now","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T10:51:52.767286Z","time":"4:51 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:51 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 10:51 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T10:50:00Z","time":"4:50 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:50 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 10:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T10:50:28.148036Z","time":"4:50 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:50 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 10:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxMDo1MTo1Mi43NjcyODYrMDA6MDB8Nzg1MA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","4:50 AM–6:20 AM CST"],["Tight turns","0 of 17"],["Share","0%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","4:50 AM–6:20 AM CST · 31 departures, aircraft known for 17"],["Tight turns","0 (0%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 0 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7850,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7813,"event_id":3416,"slug":"3416-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals running late: 53% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:29 PM and 10:29 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:29:46.716063Z","time":"10:29 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:29 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:29:00Z","time":"10:29 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:29 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:29 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T04:29:46.092778Z","time":"10:29 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:29 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 04:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNDoyOTo0Ni43MTYwNjMrMDA6MDB8NzgxMw","measurement":{"window":"9:29 PM–10:29 PM CST","n":17,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"53%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7813,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNDoyOTo0Ni43MTYwNjMrMDA6MDB8NzgxMw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNjowNzo1MS4yNDY5NzMrMDA6MDB8ODk4Ng","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n just now\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Nashville departures running late: 43% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 14 departures that took off between 9:07 AM and 10:07 AM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 14% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:07 AM–10:07 AM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 14%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 18 min ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Nashville: 10 of 32 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

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Of the 37 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 9:49 AM and 11:19 AM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 32. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

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Next 9:49 AM–11:19 AM CSTTight turns 10 of 32Share 31%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 51%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 40%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Nashville departures noon–3 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 40%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 4 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Nashville departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 46%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 5 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Inbound aircraft\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Nashville aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 22 departures in the next 90 min are tight

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What changed: tight share 50% at worst → 0% now

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Of the 32 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 4:55 AM and 6:25 AM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.

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Next 4:55 AM–6:25 AM CSTTight turns 0 of 22Share 0%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 13 h ago\n
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Nashville arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:45 PM and 8:45 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 7:45 PM–8:45 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 23%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 66%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 66%

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What changed: 69% → 66% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 66%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
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Nashville arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 47% at worst → 23% now

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Of 22 arrivals that landed between 4:28 PM and 5:28 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 4:28 PM–5:28 PM CSTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 23%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 17 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 69%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 69%

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What changed: 58% → 69% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 69%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 17 h ago\n
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Nashville: 8 of 17 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

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Of the 32 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 4:49 PM and 6:19 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

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Next 4:49 PM–6:19 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 17Share 47%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 17 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Nashville arrivals running late: 47% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 15 arrivals that landed between 3:26 PM and 4:26 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 3:26 PM–4:26 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 23%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 19 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Nashville departures 3–6 PM Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 51%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 19 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 58%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 58%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 19 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 52%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 52%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 19 h ago\n
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Nashville departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 16 departures that took off between 1:19 PM and 2:19 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 1:19 PM–2:19 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 56%Typical 32%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 38 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Nashville departures running late: 71% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 21 departures that took off between 7:05 PM and 8:05 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 44% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 7:05 PM–8:05 PM CSTSample 21 flightsLate 71%Typical 44%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Nashville arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:37 PM and 11:37 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 10:37 PM–11:37 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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Nashville aircraft turns back near normal: 2 of 17 departures in the next 90 min are tight

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What changed: tight share 48% at worst → 12% now

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Of the 17 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 10:21 PM and 11:51 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 2 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.

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Next 10:21 PM–11:51 PM CSTTight turns 2 of 17Share 12%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 52%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model now puts Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 52%, close to its calm-weather level of 45%

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What changed: 50% → 52%; calm-weather level 45%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 52%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 50%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 50%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
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Nashville: 11 of 26 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

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Of the 31 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 1:11 PM and 2:41 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 26. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

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Next 1:11 PM–2:41 PM CSTTight turns 11 of 26Share 42%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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Nashville aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 17 departures in the next 90 min are tight

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What changed: tight share 65% at worst → 0% now

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Of the 31 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 4:50 AM and 6:20 AM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 34 minutes across 6 checks, each with current data.

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Next 4:50 AM–6:20 AM CSTTight turns 0 of 17Share 0%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Nashville arrivals running late: 53% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:29 PM and 10:29 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 9:29 PM–10:29 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 53%Typical 23%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
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