{"items":[{"id":8620,"event_id":3811,"slug":"3811-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:45 PM and 8:45 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:45:25.003367Z","time":"8:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:45:00Z","time":"8:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:45:24.632341Z","time":"8:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo0NToyNS4wMDMzNjcrMDA6MDB8ODYyMA","measurement":{"window":"7:45 PM–8:45 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":10.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8620,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8565,"event_id":3693,"slug":"3693-bna-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 66% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.741237Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43NDEyMzcrMDA6MDB8ODU2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8565,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8503,"event_id":3738,"slug":"3738-bna-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 arrivals that landed between 4:28 PM and 5:28 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 47% at worst → 23% now","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:28:31.406509Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:28:00Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:28:30.583130Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzoyODozMS40MDY1MDkrMDA6MDB8ODUwMw","measurement":{"window":"4:28 PM–5:28 PM CST","n":22,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"23%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8503,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8425,"event_id":3709,"slug":"3709-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Nashville departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:56:48.041221Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:56:46.376340Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDo1Njo0OC4wNDEyMjErMDA6MDB8ODQyNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"BNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8425,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8403,"event_id":3692,"slug":"3692-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.268235Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"2:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS4yNjgyMzUrMDA6MDB8ODQwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":79,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8403,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8393,"event_id":3687,"slug":"3687-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 1:19 PM and 2:19 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:19:42.690601Z","time":"2:19 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:19 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:19 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:19:00Z","time":"2:19 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:19 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:19 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:19:41.756698Z","time":"2:19 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:19 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:19 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoxOTo0Mi42OTA2MDErMDA6MDB8ODM5Mw","measurement":{"window":"1:19 PM–2:19 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"32%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8393,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8220,"event_id":3609,"slug":"3609-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville departures running late: 71% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 departures that took off between 7:05 PM and 8:05 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 44% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:05:46.431011Z","time":"8:05 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:05 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:05 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:05:00Z","time":"8:05 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:05 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:05 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:05:45.795764Z","time":"8:05 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:05 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:05 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMjowNTo0Ni40MzEwMTErMDA6MDB8ODIyMA","measurement":{"window":"7:05 PM–8:05 PM CST","n":21,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"44%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8220,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8045,"event_id":3526,"slug":"3526-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:37 PM and 11:37 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:37:50.421564Z","time":"11:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:37 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:37:00Z","time":"11:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:37 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:37:49.701285Z","time":"11:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:37 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNTozNzo1MC40MjE1NjQrMDA6MDB8ODA0NQ","measurement":{"window":"10:37 PM–11:37 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8045,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7999,"event_id":3483,"slug":"3483-bna-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model now puts Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 52%, close to its calm-weather level of 45%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 52%; calm-weather level 45%","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:26:00.602977Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:25:59.042583Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjoyNjowMC42MDI5NzcrMDA6MDB8Nzk5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"BNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7999,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7965,"event_id":3498,"slug":"3498-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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Nashville typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). 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Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 52% at worst → 25% now","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:56:52.503185Z","time":"9:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:56:00Z","time":"9:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:56:51.714365Z","time":"9:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMzo1Njo1Mi41MDMxODUrMDA6MDB8NzgwMA","measurement":{"window":"8:56 PM–9:56 PM CST","n":20,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"25%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":7.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7800,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7721,"event_id":3366,"slug":"3366-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:56:11.035685Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:56:09.289120Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMjo1NjoxMS4wMzU2ODUrMDA6MDB8NzcyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"62%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"BNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7721,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7452,"event_id":3106,"slug":"3106-bna-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville departure delays ease: 72% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 18 departures that took off between 10:14 PM and 11:14 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). 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Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 76%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"75% → 76% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T02:26:54.085211Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T02:26:53.008707Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 02:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMjoyNjo1NC4wODUyMTErMDA6MDB8NzM4MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"76%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"BNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7380,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7168,"event_id":3096,"slug":"3096-bna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 66% since the 11:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:57:10.668072Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:57:09.120374Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMDo1NzoxMC42NjgwNzIrMDA6MDB8NzE2OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"BNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":113,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7168,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7131,"event_id":3074,"slug":"3074-bna-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 67%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 67% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:26:35.702191Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:26:32.829176Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMDoyNjozNS43MDIxOTErMDA6MDB8NzEzMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":112,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7131,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6853,"event_id":3009,"slug":"3009-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Nashville departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:57:46.611319Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 3:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 3:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:57:46.158906Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 3:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwOTo1Nzo0Ni42MTEzMTkrMDA6MDB8Njg1Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":111,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 3:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6853,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6783,"event_id":2951,"slug":"2951-bna-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals back near normal: 29% late in the last hour","body":"Of 28 arrivals that landed between 9:07 PM and 10:07 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 57% at worst → 29% now","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:07:12.118367Z","time":"10:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 10:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:07 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:07:00Z","time":"10:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 10:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:07 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T04:07:09.686539Z","time":"10:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 10:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 04:07 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwNDowNzoxMi4xMTgzNjcrMDA6MDB8Njc4Mw","measurement":{"window":"9:07 PM–10:07 PM CST","n":28,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"29%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6783,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6700,"event_id":2933,"slug":"2933-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 59% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T23:57:11.281541Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T23:57:10.385040Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQyMzo1NzoxMS4yODE1NDErMDA6MDB8NjcwMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"BNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6700,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6544,"event_id":2836,"slug":"2836-bna-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 arrivals that landed between 7:06 PM and 8:06 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 53% at worst → 23% now","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T02:06:39.840771Z","time":"8:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 8:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 02:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T02:06:00Z","time":"8:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 8:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 02:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T02:06:38.859064Z","time":"8:06 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 8:06 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 02:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQwMjowNjozOS44NDA3NzErMDA6MDB8NjU0NA","measurement":{"window":"7:06 PM–8:06 PM CST","n":22,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"23%","baseline_pct":"23%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6544,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6485,"event_id":2810,"slug":"2810-bna-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Nashville departure delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 11:19 AM and 12:19 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 72% → 50%","airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T18:19:32.128436Z","time":"12:19 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 12:19 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 18:19 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T18:19:00Z","time":"12:19 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 12:19 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 18:19 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T18:19:30.966161Z","time":"12:19 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 12:19 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 18:19 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQxODoxOTozMi4xMjg0MzYrMDA6MDB8NjQ4NQ","measurement":{"window":"11:19 AM–12:19 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":6485,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6482,"event_id":2815,"slug":"2815-bna-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BNA"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T17:57:01.948572Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 11:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 17:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T17:57:00.007410Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 11:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 17:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQxNzo1NzowMS45NDg1NzIrMDA6MDB8NjQ4Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-04T17:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 11:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6482,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQxNzo1NzowMS45NDg1NzIrMDA6MDB8NjQ4Mg","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo0NToyNS4wMDMzNjcrMDA6MDB8ODYyMA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Nashville arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:45 PM and 8:45 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:45 PM–8:45 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 66%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 66%

\n

What changed: 69% → 66% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 66%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Nashville arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 47% at worst → 23% now

\n \n

Of 22 arrivals that landed between 4:28 PM and 5:28 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 4:28 PM–5:28 PM CSTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Nashville departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 52%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 52%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Nashville departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 16 departures that took off between 1:19 PM and 2:19 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 1:19 PM–2:19 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 56%Typical 32%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 33 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Nashville departures running late: 71% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 21 departures that took off between 7:05 PM and 8:05 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 44% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:05 PM–8:05 PM CSTSample 21 flightsLate 71%Typical 44%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Nashville arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:37 PM and 11:37 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:37 PM–11:37 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 52%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model now puts Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 52%, close to its calm-weather level of 45%

\n

What changed: 50% → 52%; calm-weather level 45%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 52%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Nashville departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Nashville arrivals running late: 53% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:29 PM and 10:29 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:29 PM–10:29 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 53%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Nashville departure delays ease: 73% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 89% → 73%

\n \n

Of 15 departures that took off between 9:19 PM and 10:19 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:19 PM–10:19 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 73%Typical 47%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Nashville arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 52% at worst → 25% now

\n \n

Of 20 arrivals that landed between 8:56 PM and 9:56 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 8:56 PM–9:56 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 25%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 62%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 62%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Nashville departure delays ease: 72% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 87% → 72%

\n \n

Of 18 departures that took off between 10:14 PM and 11:14 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:14 PM–11:14 PM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 72%Typical 51%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Nashville arrival delays ease: 43% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 74% → 43%

\n \n

Of 23 arrivals that landed between 8:34 PM and 9:34 PM CST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:34 PM–9:34 PM CSTSample 23 flightsLate 43%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 76%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 76%

\n

What changed: 75% → 76% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 76%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 66%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 66%

\n

What changed: 54% → 66% since the 11:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 66%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 67%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 67%

\n

What changed: 55% → 67% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 67%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Nashville departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Nashville arrivals back near normal: 29% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 57% at worst → 29% now

\n \n

Of 28 arrivals that landed between 9:07 PM and 10:07 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 9:07 PM–10:07 PM CSTSample 28 flightsLate 29%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 59%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 59% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 59%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 4\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BNA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Nashville arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 53% at worst → 23% now

\n \n

Of 22 arrivals that landed between 7:06 PM and 8:06 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 7:06 PM–8:06 PM CSTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 23%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 4\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Nashville departure delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 72% → 50%

\n \n

Of 14 departures that took off between 11:19 AM and 12:19 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:19 AM–12:19 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 4\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BNA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Nashville departures noon–3 PM Wednesday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BNA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=BNA"}