{"items":[{"id":8806,"event_id":3876,"slug":"3876-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 77 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.615877Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTU4NzcrMDA6MDB8ODgwNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.0,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8806,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8805,"event_id":3875,"slug":"3875-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.612192Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTIxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgwNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"35%","expected_cancellations":4.0,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8805,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8804,"event_id":3874,"slug":"3874-bos-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.608479Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MDg0NzkrMDA6MDB8ODgwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"29%","expected_cancellations":5.7,"target":"BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8804,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8790,"event_id":3779,"slug":"3779-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 38%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.189233Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xODkyMzMrMDA6MDB8ODc5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":14.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8790,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8789,"event_id":3731,"slug":"3731-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 38%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.186875Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xODY4NzUrMDA6MDB8ODc4OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":96,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8789,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8728,"event_id":3683,"slug":"3683-bos-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrival delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour","body":"Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:32 PM and 12:32 AM EST, 23 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 55% → 74%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:32:34.490398Z","time":"12:32 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:32 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:32 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:32:00Z","time":"12:32 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:32 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:32 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:32:34.073916Z","time":"12:32 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:32 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:32 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTozMjozNC40OTAzOTgrMDA6MDB8ODcyOA","measurement":{"window":"11:32 PM–12:32 AM EST","n":31,"late_n":23,"share_pct":"74%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":38.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8728,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8663,"event_id":3832,"slug":"3832-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Boston departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 117 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:46.361950Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:56:45.160041Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo1Njo0Ni4zNjE5NTArMDA6MDB8ODY2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":117,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8663,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8652,"event_id":3681,"slug":"3681-bos-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston departure delays worsen: 84% late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 9:34 PM and 10:34 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 65% → 84%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:34:22.349395Z","time":"10:34 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:34 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:34:00Z","time":"10:34 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:34 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:34 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:34:22.058675Z","time":"10:34 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:34 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzozNDoyMi4zNDkzOTUrMDA6MDB8ODY1Mg","measurement":{"window":"9:34 PM–10:34 PM EST","n":19,"late_n":16,"share_pct":"84%","baseline_pct":"47%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":90.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8652,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8554,"event_id":3780,"slug":"3780-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Boston departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 112 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.645329Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy42NDUzMjkrMDA6MDB8ODU1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.8,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":112,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8554,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8552,"event_id":3616,"slug":"3616-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"61% → 60% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.632518Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy42MzI1MTgrMDA6MDB8ODU1Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"BOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8552,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8449,"event_id":3718,"slug":"3718-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Boston departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.660627Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi42NjA2MjcrMDA6MDB8ODQ0OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.5,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8449,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8399,"event_id":3602,"slug":"3602-bos-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 71%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 71% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:54.796784Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NC43OTY3ODQrMDA6MDB8ODM5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"71%","expected_cancellations":3.2,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8399,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8376,"event_id":3678,"slug":"3678-bos-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Boston: 10 of 27 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 45 departures scheduled from Boston (BOS) between 2:10 PM and 3:40 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BOS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:10:11.330352Z","time":"2:10 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:10 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:10:00Z","time":"2:10 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:10 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:10 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:10:09.330907Z","time":"2:10 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:10 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxOToxMDoxMS4zMzAzNTIrMDA6MDB8ODM3Ng","measure":{"chips":[["Next","2:10 PM–3:40 PM EST"],["Tight turns","10 of 27"],["Share","37%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","2:10 PM–3:40 PM EST · 45 departures, aircraft known for 27"],["Tight turns","10 (37%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","DL 2275 to DCA at 2:24 PM: aircraft N127DU, inbound DL 833 from DCA (not departed), -132 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4765 to BNA at 3:31 PM: aircraft N8972S, inbound WN 1479 from BWI (not departed), -49 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 800 to BWI at 2:24 PM: aircraft N8918Q, inbound WN 4457 from BNA (airborne), -3 min to turn"],["Tightest","YX 5789 to CVG at 2:12 PM: aircraft N224JQ, inbound YX 5622 from RIC (airborne), -1 min to turn"],["Tightest","B6 2459 to PHL at 3:25 PM: aircraft N3118J, inbound B6 692 from TPA (airborne), 17 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8376,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8178,"event_id":3581,"slug":"3581-bos-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Boston departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:57:59.515675Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:57:58.498891Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMTo1Nzo1OS41MTU2NzUrMDA6MDB8ODE3OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":2.3,"target":"BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":91,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8178,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8126,"event_id":3553,"slug":"3553-bos-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrivals back near normal: 4% late in the last hour","body":"Of 26 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 57% at worst → 4% now","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:46:40.088788Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:46 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:46:00Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:46:39.681652Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMjo0Njo0MC4wODg3ODgrMDA6MDB8ODEyNg","measurement":{"window":"8:46 PM–9:46 PM EST","n":26,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"4%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-20.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8126,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7977,"event_id":3480,"slug":"3480-bos-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrivals back near normal: 20% late in the last hour","body":"Of 25 arrivals that landed between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 48% at worst → 20% now","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:53:15.285571Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:53:00Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:53:14.392918Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMzo1MzoxNS4yODU1NzErMDA6MDB8Nzk3Nw","measurement":{"window":"5:53 PM–6:53 PM EST","n":25,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"20%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7977,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7655,"event_id":3307,"slug":"3307-bos-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 arrivals that landed between 11:26 PM and 12:26 AM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 94% at worst → 23% now","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T05:26:44.240012Z","time":"12:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 12:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 05:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T05:26:00Z","time":"12:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 12:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 05:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T05:26:43.853899Z","time":"12:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 12:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 05:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQwNToyNjo0NC4yNDAwMTIrMDA6MDB8NzY1NQ","measurement":{"window":"11:26 PM–12:26 AM EST","n":22,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"23%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7655,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7652,"event_id":3309,"slug":"3309-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston departure delays ease: 73% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 83% → 73%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T03:42:04.576142Z","time":"10:42 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:42 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 03:42 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T03:42:00Z","time":"10:42 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:42 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 03:42 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T03:42:04.170706Z","time":"10:42 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:42 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 03:42 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQwMzo0MjowNC41NzYxNDIrMDA6MDB8NzY1Mg","measurement":{"window":"9:42 PM–10:42 PM EST","n":22,"late_n":16,"share_pct":"73%","baseline_pct":"47%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":73.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7652,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7607,"event_id":3208,"slug":"3208-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"62% → 55% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T20:26:34.814895Z","time":"3:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 3:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T20:26:32.199670Z","time":"3:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 3:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMDoyNjozNC44MTQ4OTUrMDA6MDB8NzYwNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":7607,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7602,"event_id":3279,"slug":"3279-bos-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston departures back near normal: 19% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 1:31 PM and 2:31 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 100% at worst → 19% now","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T19:31:18.122165Z","time":"2:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 2:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 19:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T19:31:00Z","time":"2:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 2:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 19:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T19:31:17.480952Z","time":"2:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 2:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 19:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxOTozMToxOC4xMjIxNjUrMDA6MDB8NzYwMg","measurement":{"window":"1:31 PM–2:31 PM EST","n":16,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"19%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7602,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7593,"event_id":3295,"slug":"3295-bos-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 59% at worst → 24% now","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T18:02:44.875281Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 18:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T18:02:00Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 18:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T18:02:44.331924Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 18:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxODowMjo0NC44NzUyODErMDA6MDB8NzU5Mw","measurement":{"window":"12:02 PM–1:02 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7593,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7585,"event_id":3231,"slug":"3231-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 52%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 52% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:28.271682Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:26.395726Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNjo1NzoyOC4yNzE2ODIrMDA6MDB8NzU4NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"BOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":17,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7585,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7583,"event_id":3177,"slug":"3177-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"72% → 61% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:28.252328Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:26.395726Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNjo1NzoyOC4yNTIzMjgrMDA6MDB8NzU4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":87,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":7583,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7582,"event_id":3249,"slug":"3249-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 48%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 48% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:28.242484Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:26.395726Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNjo1NzoyOC4yNDI0ODQrMDA6MDB8NzU4Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":81,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":7582,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7530,"event_id":3256,"slug":"3256-bos-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Boston departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 81 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 3 → 2","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:57:18.996959Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:57:16.358453Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMTo1NzoxOC45OTY5NTkrMDA6MDB8NzUzMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":81,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7530,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMTo1NzoxOC45OTY5NTkrMDA6MDB8NzUzMA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTU4NzcrMDA6MDB8ODgwNg","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 77 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 35%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%

\n

What changed: 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 35%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 29%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal

\n

What changed: 44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 29%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 38%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 38%

\n

What changed: 50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 38%Horizon 14.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 38%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 38%

\n

What changed: 50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 38%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Boston arrival delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 55% → 74%

\n \n

Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:32 PM and 12:32 AM EST, 23 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:32 PM–12:32 AM ESTSample 31 flightsLate 74%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Boston departures 9 AM–noon Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 117 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Boston departure delays worsen: 84% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 65% → 84%

\n \n

Of 19 departures that took off between 9:34 PM and 10:34 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:34 PM–10:34 PM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 84%Typical 47%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 9 cancellations among Boston departures 6–9 AM Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 112 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 60%

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What changed: 61% → 60% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 6 cancellations among Boston departures 6–9 PM Thursday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 71%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 71%

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What changed: 58% → 71% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 71%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
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Boston: 10 of 27 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

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Of the 45 departures scheduled from Boston (BOS) between 2:10 PM and 3:40 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BOS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

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Next 2:10 PM–3:40 PM ESTTight turns 10 of 27Share 37%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 36 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Boston departures 3–6 PM Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 47%Horizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 10\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Boston arrivals back near normal: 4% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 57% at worst → 4% now

\n \n

Of 26 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 8:46 PM–9:46 PM ESTSample 26 flightsLate 4%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Boston arrivals back near normal: 20% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 48% at worst → 20% now

\n \n

Of 25 arrivals that landed between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 5:53 PM–6:53 PM ESTSample 25 flightsLate 20%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 8\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Boston arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 94% at worst → 23% now

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Of 22 arrivals that landed between 11:26 PM and 12:26 AM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 11:26 PM–12:26 AM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Boston departure delays ease: 73% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 83% → 73%

\n \n

Of 22 departures that took off between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 9:42 PM–10:42 PM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 73%Typical 47%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 55%

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What changed: 62% → 55% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Boston departures back near normal: 19% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 100% at worst → 19% now

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Of 16 departures that took off between 1:31 PM and 2:31 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 1:31 PM–2:31 PM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 19%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Boston arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 59% at worst → 24% now

\n \n

Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 12:02 PM–1:02 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 52%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 52%

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What changed: 60% → 52% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 52%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 61%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 61%

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What changed: 72% → 61% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 61%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 48%

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What changed: 60% → 48% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Boston departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 2

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What changed: about 3 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 81 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=BOS"}