{"items":[{"id":8805,"event_id":3875,"slug":"3875-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.612192Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTIxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgwNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"35%","expected_cancellations":4.0,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8805,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8804,"event_id":3874,"slug":"3874-bos-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.608479Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:55:50.218130Z","time":"3:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MDg0NzkrMDA6MDB8ODgwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"29%","expected_cancellations":5.7,"target":"BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":118,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8804,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8790,"event_id":3779,"slug":"3779-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 38%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.189233Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xODkyMzMrMDA6MDB8ODc5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":14.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":104,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8790,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8789,"event_id":3731,"slug":"3731-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 38%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:25.186875Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T08:27:24.669230Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODoyNzoyNS4xODY4NzUrMDA6MDB8ODc4OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"38%","expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":11.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":96,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8789,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8728,"event_id":3683,"slug":"3683-bos-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrival delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour","body":"Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:32 PM and 12:32 AM EST, 23 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 55% → 74%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:32:34.490398Z","time":"12:32 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:32 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:32 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:32:00Z","time":"12:32 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:32 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:32 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:32:34.073916Z","time":"12:32 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:32 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:32 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTozMjozNC40OTAzOTgrMDA6MDB8ODcyOA","measurement":{"window":"11:32 PM–12:32 AM EST","n":31,"late_n":23,"share_pct":"74%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":38.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8728,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8652,"event_id":3681,"slug":"3681-bos-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston departure delays worsen: 84% late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 9:34 PM and 10:34 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 65% → 84%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:34:22.349395Z","time":"10:34 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:34 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:34 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:34:00Z","time":"10:34 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:34 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:34 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:34:22.058675Z","time":"10:34 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:34 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:34 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzozNDoyMi4zNDkzOTUrMDA6MDB8ODY1Mg","measurement":{"window":"9:34 PM–10:34 PM EST","n":19,"late_n":16,"share_pct":"84%","baseline_pct":"47%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":90.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8652,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8552,"event_id":3616,"slug":"3616-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"61% → 60% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.632518Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy42MzI1MTgrMDA6MDB8ODU1Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"BOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":22,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8552,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8399,"event_id":3602,"slug":"3602-bos-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 71%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 71% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:54.796784Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NC43OTY3ODQrMDA6MDB8ODM5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"71%","expected_cancellations":3.2,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8399,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8178,"event_id":3581,"slug":"3581-bos-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Boston departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:57:59.515675Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:57:58.498891Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMTo1Nzo1OS41MTU2NzUrMDA6MDB8ODE3OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":2.3,"target":"BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":91,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-11T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8178,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8126,"event_id":3553,"slug":"3553-bos-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrivals back near normal: 4% late in the last hour","body":"Of 26 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 57% at worst → 4% now","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:46:40.088788Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:46 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:46:00Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:46:39.681652Z","time":"9:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMjo0Njo0MC4wODg3ODgrMDA6MDB8ODEyNg","measurement":{"window":"8:46 PM–9:46 PM EST","n":26,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"4%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-20.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8126,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7977,"event_id":3480,"slug":"3480-bos-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrivals back near normal: 20% late in the last hour","body":"Of 25 arrivals that landed between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 48% at worst → 20% now","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:53:15.285571Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:53:00Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:53:14.392918Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMzo1MzoxNS4yODU1NzErMDA6MDB8Nzk3Nw","measurement":{"window":"5:53 PM–6:53 PM EST","n":25,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"20%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7977,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7655,"event_id":3307,"slug":"3307-bos-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 arrivals that landed between 11:26 PM and 12:26 AM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 94% at worst → 23% now","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T05:26:44.240012Z","time":"12:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 12:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 05:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T05:26:00Z","time":"12:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 12:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 05:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T05:26:43.853899Z","time":"12:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 12:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 05:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQwNToyNjo0NC4yNDAwMTIrMDA6MDB8NzY1NQ","measurement":{"window":"11:26 PM–12:26 AM EST","n":22,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"23%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7655,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7652,"event_id":3309,"slug":"3309-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston departure delays ease: 73% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 83% → 73%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T03:42:04.576142Z","time":"10:42 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:42 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 03:42 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T03:42:00Z","time":"10:42 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:42 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 03:42 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T03:42:04.170706Z","time":"10:42 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:42 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 03:42 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQwMzo0MjowNC41NzYxNDIrMDA6MDB8NzY1Mg","measurement":{"window":"9:42 PM–10:42 PM EST","n":22,"late_n":16,"share_pct":"73%","baseline_pct":"47%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":73.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7652,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7607,"event_id":3208,"slug":"3208-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"62% → 55% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T20:26:34.814895Z","time":"3:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 3:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T20:26:32.199670Z","time":"3:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 3:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMDoyNjozNC44MTQ4OTUrMDA6MDB8NzYwNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":77,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":7607,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7602,"event_id":3279,"slug":"3279-bos-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston departures back near normal: 19% late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 1:31 PM and 2:31 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 100% at worst → 19% now","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T19:31:18.122165Z","time":"2:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 2:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 19:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T19:31:00Z","time":"2:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 2:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 19:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T19:31:17.480952Z","time":"2:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 2:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 19:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxOTozMToxOC4xMjIxNjUrMDA6MDB8NzYwMg","measurement":{"window":"1:31 PM–2:31 PM EST","n":16,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"19%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7602,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7593,"event_id":3295,"slug":"3295-bos-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 59% at worst → 24% now","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T18:02:44.875281Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 18:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T18:02:00Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 18:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T18:02:44.331924Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 18:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxODowMjo0NC44NzUyODErMDA6MDB8NzU5Mw","measurement":{"window":"12:02 PM–1:02 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7593,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7585,"event_id":3231,"slug":"3231-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 52%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 52% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:28.271682Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:26.395726Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNjo1NzoyOC4yNzE2ODIrMDA6MDB8NzU4NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"BOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":17,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7585,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7583,"event_id":3177,"slug":"3177-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"72% → 61% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:28.252328Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:26.395726Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNjo1NzoyOC4yNTIzMjgrMDA6MDB8NzU4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":87,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":7583,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7582,"event_id":3249,"slug":"3249-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 48%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 48% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:28.242484Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:57:26.395726Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNjo1NzoyOC4yNDI0ODQrMDA6MDB8NzU4Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":81,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":7582,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7528,"event_id":3244,"slug":"3244-bos-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"36% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:57:18.971541Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:57:16.358453Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMTo1NzoxOC45NzE1NDErMDA6MDB8NzUyOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":3.4,"target":"BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":120,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7528,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7464,"event_id":3061,"slug":"3061-bos-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston arrival delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 arrivals that landed between 11:44 PM and 12:44 AM EST, 18 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 55% → 75%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:44:54.994072Z","time":"12:44 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:44 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:44:00Z","time":"12:44 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:44 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:44 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:44:54.479777Z","time":"12:44 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:44 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNTo0NDo1NC45OTQwNzIrMDA6MDB8NzQ2NA","measurement":{"window":"11:44 PM–12:44 AM EST","n":24,"late_n":18,"share_pct":"75%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":38.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":7464,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":8,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7413,"event_id":3052,"slug":"3052-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Boston departure delays ease: 75% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 83% → 75%","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:40:21.835929Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:40:00Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:40:21.261371Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMzo0MDoyMS44MzU5MjkrMDA6MDB8NzQxMw","measurement":{"window":"9:40 PM–10:40 PM EST","n":24,"late_n":18,"share_pct":"75%","baseline_pct":"47%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":79.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":7413,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7346,"event_id":2973,"slug":"2973-bos-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"81% → 66% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:27:39.750673Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:27:38.742510Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMToyNzozOS43NTA2NzMrMDA6MDB8NzM0Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":2.3,"target":"BOS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7346,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7011,"event_id":2944,"slug":"2944-bos-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 86%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 86% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"72% → 86% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.895203Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS44OTUyMDMrMDA6MDB8NzAxMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"86%","expected_cancellations":2.9,"target":"BOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":113,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7011,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6969,"event_id":2931,"slug":"2931-bos-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 79%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"65% → 79% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BOS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:56:50.144812Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:56:48.842615Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNTo1Njo1MC4xNDQ4MTIrMDA6MDB8Njk2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"79%","expected_cancellations":2.4,"target":"BOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":116,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6969,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNTo1Njo1MC4xNDQ4MTIrMDA6MDB8Njk2OQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwODo1NTo1MC42MTIxOTIrMDA6MDB8ODgwNQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 35%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%

\n

What changed: 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 35%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 29%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal

\n

What changed: 44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 29%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 38%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 38%

\n

What changed: 50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 38%Horizon 14.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 38%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 38%

\n

What changed: 50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 38%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Boston arrival delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 55% → 74%

\n \n

Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:32 PM and 12:32 AM EST, 23 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:32 PM–12:32 AM ESTSample 31 flightsLate 74%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Boston departure delays worsen: 84% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 65% → 84%

\n \n

Of 19 departures that took off between 9:34 PM and 10:34 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:34 PM–10:34 PM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 84%Typical 47%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 60%

\n

What changed: 61% → 60% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 71%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 71%

\n

What changed: 58% → 71% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 71%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 36 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Boston departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 10\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Boston arrivals back near normal: 4% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 57% at worst → 4% now

\n \n

Of 26 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 8:46 PM–9:46 PM ESTSample 26 flightsLate 4%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Boston arrivals back near normal: 20% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 48% at worst → 20% now

\n \n

Of 25 arrivals that landed between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 5:53 PM–6:53 PM ESTSample 25 flightsLate 20%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 8\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Boston arrivals back near normal: 23% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 94% at worst → 23% now

\n \n

Of 22 arrivals that landed between 11:26 PM and 12:26 AM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 11:26 PM–12:26 AM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Boston departure delays ease: 73% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 83% → 73%

\n \n

Of 22 departures that took off between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:42 PM–10:42 PM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 73%Typical 47%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 55%

\n

What changed: 62% → 55% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Boston departures back near normal: 19% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 100% at worst → 19% now

\n \n

Of 16 departures that took off between 1:31 PM and 2:31 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 1:31 PM–2:31 PM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 19%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Boston arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 59% at worst → 24% now

\n \n

Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 12:02 PM–1:02 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 52%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 52%

\n

What changed: 60% → 52% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 52%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 61%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 61%

\n

What changed: 72% → 61% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 61%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 48%

\n

What changed: 60% → 48% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal

\n

What changed: 36% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 31%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Boston arrival delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 55% → 75%

\n \n

Of 24 arrivals that landed between 11:44 PM and 12:44 AM EST, 18 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:44 PM–12:44 AM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 75%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (8)\n 7 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Boston departure delays ease: 75% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 83% → 75%

\n \n

Of 24 departures that took off between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:40 PM–10:40 PM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 75%Typical 47%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 66%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%

\n

What changed: 81% → 66% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 66%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 86%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 86%

\n

What changed: 72% → 86% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 86% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 86%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 79%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BOS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 79%

\n

What changed: 65% → 79% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 79%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BOS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=BOS"}