{"items":[{"id":9860,"event_id":4299,"slug":"4299-bwi-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 50 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.613797Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS42MTM3OTcrMDA6MDB8OTg2MA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.5,"target":"BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":50,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9860,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9859,"event_id":4276,"slug":"4276-bwi-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among BWI departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 60 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.610063Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS42MTAwNjMrMDA6MDB8OTg1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.1,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":60,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9859,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9858,"event_id":4275,"slug":"4275-bwi-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.607430Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS42MDc0MzArMDA6MDB8OTg1OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":3.5,"target":"BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":50,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9858,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9739,"event_id":4299,"slug":"4299-bwi-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 50 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.669966Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi42Njk5NjYrMDA6MDB8OTczOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.0,"target":"BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":50,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9860,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9860,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.613797Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9738,"event_id":4275,"slug":"4275-bwi-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 54%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 54% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.667280Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi42NjcyODArMDA6MDB8OTczOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"54%","expected_cancellations":5.0,"target":"BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":50,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9858,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9858,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.607430Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9689,"event_id":4283,"slug":"4283-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrivals running late: 100% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:24 PM and 11:24 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:24:47.793843Z","time":"11:24 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:24 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:24 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:24:00Z","time":"11:24 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:24 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:24 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:24:46.848432Z","time":"11:24 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:24 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:24 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDoyNDo0Ny43OTM4NDMrMDA6MDB8OTY4OQ","measurement":{"window":"10:24 PM–11:24 PM EST","n":15,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":258.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9689,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9681,"event_id":4276,"slug":"4276-bwi-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among BWI departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:17.279077Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4yNzkwNzcrMDA6MDB8OTY4MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.1,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":59,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9859,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9859,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among BWI departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.610063Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"36 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9680,"event_id":4275,"slug":"4275-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 55% delay risk for BWI departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from BWI midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:17.273430Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"10:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4yNzM0MzArMDA6MDB8OTY3OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"BWI departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":17,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9679,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9548,"event_id":4181,"slug":"4181-bwi-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.574659Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC41NzQ2NTkrMDA6MDB8OTU0OA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.3,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9548,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9330,"event_id":4105,"slug":"4105-bwi-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.371690Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zNzE2OTArMDA6MDB8OTMzMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.9,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9330,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9329,"event_id":4039,"slug":"4039-bwi-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 91%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 91% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"65% → 91% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.368652Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zNjg2NTIrMDA6MDB8OTMyOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"91%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9329,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9328,"event_id":4038,"slug":"4038-bwi-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 89%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"63% → 89% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.364865Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zNjQ4NjUrMDA6MDB8OTMyOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"89%","expected_cancellations":6.9,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9328,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9185,"event_id":4039,"slug":"4039-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 65% delay risk for BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.462092Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy40NjIwOTIrMDA6MDB8OTE4NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"65%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9329,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9329,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 91%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.368652Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9184,"event_id":4038,"slug":"4038-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 63% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.447261Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy40NDcyNjErMDA6MDB8OTE4NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"63%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9328,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9328,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 89%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.364865Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9107,"event_id":4003,"slug":"4003-bwi-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"BWI: 8 of 17 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 20 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 2:56 PM and 4:26 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:56:43.022843Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:56:00Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:56:41.214910Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxOTo1Njo0My4wMjI4NDMrMDA6MDB8OTEwNw","measure":{"chips":[["Next","2:56 PM–4:26 PM EST"],["Tight turns","8 of 17"],["Share","47%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","2:56 PM–4:26 PM EST · 20 departures, aircraft known for 17"],["Tight turns","8 (47%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 7 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","B6 2595 to FLL at 4:00 PM: aircraft N524JB, inbound B6 2094 from FLL (airborne), -43 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1305 to ORF at 4:15 PM: aircraft N8817L, inbound WN 3461 from JAX (airborne), 15 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1087 to MKE at 4:06 PM: aircraft N913WN, inbound WN 1665 from MDW (airborne), 19 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1040 to JAX at 4:12 PM: aircraft N292WN, inbound WN 2138 from ATL (airborne), 22 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3017 to ATL at 4:14 PM: aircraft N8822Q, inbound WN 849 from FLL (airborne), 28 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9107,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9022,"event_id":3969,"slug":"3969-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 departures that took off between 11:09 AM and 12:09 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:09:07.414810Z","time":"12:09 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:09 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:09:00Z","time":"12:09 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:09 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:09 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:09:06.782854Z","time":"12:09 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:09 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzowOTowNy40MTQ4MTArMDA6MDB8OTAyMg","measurement":{"window":"11:09 AM–12:09 PM EST","n":18,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9022,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9010,"event_id":3944,"slug":"3944-bwi-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 51%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"59% → 51%; calm-weather level 44%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:56:50.372784Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:56:47.532580Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNjo1Njo1MC4zNzI3ODQrMDA6MDB8OTAxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9010,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8988,"event_id":3921,"slug":"3921-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 20% late in the last hour","body":"Of 25 departures that took off between 10:24 AM and 11:24 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 69% at worst → 20% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:24:11.257797Z","time":"11:24 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:24 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:24 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:24:00Z","time":"11:24 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:24 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:24 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:24:10.705865Z","time":"11:24 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:24 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:24 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNjoyNDoxMS4yNTc3OTcrMDA6MDB8ODk4OA","measurement":{"window":"10:24 AM–11:24 AM EST","n":25,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"20%","baseline_pct":"16%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8988,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8980,"event_id":3944,"slug":"3944-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 59% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:39.940317Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:38.542413Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS45NDAzMTcrMDA6MDB8ODk4MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9010,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9010,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 51%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:56:50.372784Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8953,"event_id":3921,"slug":"3921-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departure delays ease: 40% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 9:16 AM and 10:16 AM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 61% → 40%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:16:51.253084Z","time":"10:16 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:16 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:16:00Z","time":"10:16 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:16 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:16:50.399806Z","time":"10:16 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:16 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNToxNjo1MS4yNTMwODQrMDA6MDB8ODk1Mw","measurement":{"window":"9:16 AM–10:16 AM EST","n":15,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"40%","baseline_pct":"17%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":8.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8988,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8988,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 20% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:24:11.257797Z","time":"11:24 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:24 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:24 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNToxNjo1MS4yNTMwODQrMDA6MDB8ODk1Mw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS42MTM3OTcrMDA6MDB8OTg2MA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 36 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 50 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 36 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among BWI departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 60 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 36 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal

\n

What changed: 54% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 31%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n \n Cancellation\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 5 cancellations among BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 50 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 54%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 54%

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What changed: 40% → 54% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 54%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 3 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n arrivals\n \n \n
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BWI arrivals running late: 100% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:24 PM and 11:24 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 10:24 PM–11:24 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 100%Typical 19%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 3 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n \n Cancellation\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 6 cancellations among BWI departures 6–9 AM Saturday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 3 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 40%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 40% delay risk for BWI departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 40%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 3 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 55%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 55% delay risk for BWI departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from BWI midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 55%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 5 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 6 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 5 cancellations among BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 7 cancellations among BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 91%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 91%

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What changed: 65% → 91% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 91% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 91%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 89%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 89%

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What changed: 63% → 89% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 89%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
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\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 65%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 65% delay risk for BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 65%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 63%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 63% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 63%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 11 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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BWI: 8 of 17 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

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Of the 20 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 2:56 PM and 4:26 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

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Next 2:56 PM–4:26 PM ESTTight turns 8 of 17Share 47%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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BWI departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 18 departures that took off between 11:09 AM and 12:09 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 11:09 AM–12:09 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 50%Typical 19%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 51%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 51%, near normal

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What changed: 59% → 51%; calm-weather level 44%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 51%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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BWI departures back near normal: 20% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 69% at worst → 20% now

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Of 25 departures that took off between 10:24 AM and 11:24 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 10:24 AM–11:24 AM ESTSample 25 flightsLate 20%Typical 16%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 59%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 59% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 59%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 16 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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BWI departure delays ease: 40% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 61% → 40%

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Of 15 departures that took off between 9:16 AM and 10:16 AM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 9:16 AM–10:16 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 40%Typical 17%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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