{"items":[{"id":9681,"event_id":4276,"slug":"4276-bwi-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among BWI departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.574659Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC41NzQ2NTkrMDA6MDB8OTU0OA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.3,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9548,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9330,"event_id":4105,"slug":"4105-bwi-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.371690Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4zNzE2OTArMDA6MDB8OTMzMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.9,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":57,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9330,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4yNzkwNzcrMDA6MDB8OTY4MQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 46 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among BWI departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 5 cancellations among BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among BWI departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=BWI"}