{"items":[{"id":8697,"event_id":3769,"slug":"3769-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 71% → 42%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:31.010463Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:00Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.356312Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDozMzozMS4wMTA0NjMrMDA6MDB8ODY5Nw","measurement":{"window":"10:33 PM–11:33 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"42%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8697,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8682,"event_id":3639,"slug":"3639-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departure delays ease: 60% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 10:02 PM and 11:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 72% → 60%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:02:53.351131Z","time":"11:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:02:00Z","time":"11:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:02:52.399853Z","time":"11:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDowMjo1My4zNTExMzErMDA6MDB8ODY4Mg","measurement":{"window":"10:02 PM–11:02 PM EST","n":20,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"60%","baseline_pct":"52%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":20.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8682,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8567,"event_id":3695,"slug":"3695-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 78%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"78% → 78% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.759224Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43NTkyMjQrMDA6MDB8ODU2Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"78%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8567,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8406,"event_id":3694,"slug":"3694-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 67% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.510070Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS41MTAwNzArMDA6MDB8ODQwNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8406,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8222,"event_id":3594,"slug":"3594-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 8:09 PM and 9:09 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 60% at worst → 17% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:09:51.596942Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:09 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:09:00Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:09 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:09 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:09:50.517476Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:09 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMjowOTo1MS41OTY5NDIrMDA6MDB8ODIyMg","measurement":{"window":"8:09 PM–9:09 PM EST","n":24,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"17%","baseline_pct":"41%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8222,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8193,"event_id":3585,"slug":"3585-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 6:13 PM and 7:13 PM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 67% at worst → 21% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:13:10.739451Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:13 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:13:00Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:13 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:13 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:13:09.980832Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:13 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMDoxMzoxMC43Mzk0NTErMDA6MDB8ODE5Mw","measurement":{"window":"6:13 PM–7:13 PM EST","n":24,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"21%","baseline_pct":"35%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":9.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8193,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8122,"event_id":3549,"slug":"3549-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 4% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 8:03 PM and 9:03 PM EST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 77% at worst → 4% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:03:44.842596Z","time":"9:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:03:00Z","time":"9:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:03 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:03:44.367962Z","time":"9:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMjowMzo0NC44NDI1OTYrMDA6MDB8ODEyMg","measurement":{"window":"8:03 PM–9:03 PM EST","n":24,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"4%","baseline_pct":"41%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8122,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8034,"event_id":3511,"slug":"3511-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:46 PM and 11:46 PM EST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 75% at worst → 0% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:46:33.721368Z","time":"11:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:46 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:46:00Z","time":"11:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:46:33.076430Z","time":"11:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNDo0NjozMy43MjEzNjgrMDA6MDB8ODAzNA","measurement":{"window":"10:46 PM–11:46 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-10.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8034,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7994,"event_id":3440,"slug":"3440-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 14% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 7:50 PM and 8:50 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 69% at worst → 14% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:50:54.003465Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:50:00Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:50:51.242182Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMTo1MDo1NC4wMDM0NjUrMDA6MDB8Nzk5NA","measurement":{"window":"7:50 PM–8:50 PM EST","n":22,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"14%","baseline_pct":"41%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7994,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7990,"event_id":3488,"slug":"3488-bwi-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"59% → 52%; calm-weather level 49%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:27:30.671929Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:27:29.177630Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMToyNzozMC42NzE5MjkrMDA6MDB8Nzk5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7990,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7793,"event_id":3406,"slug":"3406-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrivals running late: 48% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 9:30 PM and 10:30 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:30:05.071727Z","time":"10:30 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:30 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:30:00Z","time":"10:30 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:30 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:30:03.025327Z","time":"10:30 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:30 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMzozMDowNS4wNzE3MjcrMDA6MDB8Nzc5Mw","measurement":{"window":"9:30 PM–10:30 PM EST","n":21,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"48%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7793,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7763,"event_id":3390,"slug":"3390-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 72% delay risk for BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:27:56.222124Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:27:53.973199Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMToyNzo1Ni4yMjIxMjQrMDA6MDB8Nzc2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"72%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7763,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7761,"event_id":3336,"slug":"3336-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departure delays ease: 40% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 75% → 40%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:25:51.305033Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:25:00Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:25:49.505579Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMToyNTo1MS4zMDUwMzMrMDA6MDB8Nzc2MQ","measurement":{"window":"7:25 PM–8:25 PM EST","n":20,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"40%","baseline_pct":"38%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7761,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7578,"event_id":3289,"slug":"3289-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 8% late in the last hour","body":"Of 26 departures that took off between 10:41 AM and 11:41 AM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 43% at worst → 8% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:41:05.694996Z","time":"11:41 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:41 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:41:00Z","time":"11:41 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:41 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:41:05.282804Z","time":"11:41 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:41 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNjo0MTowNS42OTQ5OTYrMDA6MDB8NzU3OA","measurement":{"window":"10:41 AM–11:41 AM EST","n":26,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"8%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7578,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7521,"event_id":3245,"slug":"3245-bwi-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 23%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 23% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 23%; calm-weather level 25%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:59:42.975597Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:59:36.897287Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMDo1OTo0Mi45NzU1OTcrMDA6MDB8NzUyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"23%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":90,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7521,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7415,"event_id":3206,"slug":"3206-bwi-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrival delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 58% → 71%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:40:21.968179Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:40:00Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:40:21.261371Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMzo0MDoyMS45NjgxNzkrMDA6MDB8NzQxNQ","measurement":{"window":"9:40 PM–10:40 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7415,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7296,"event_id":3040,"slug":"3040-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departure delays ease: 61% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 5:49 PM and 6:49 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 67% → 61%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:49:23.935760Z","time":"6:49 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:49 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:49 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:49:00Z","time":"6:49 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:49 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:49 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:49:21.553040Z","time":"6:49 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:49 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:49 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMzo0OToyMy45MzU3NjArMDA6MDB8NzI5Ng","measurement":{"window":"5:49 PM–6:49 PM EST","n":23,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"61%","baseline_pct":"35%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7296,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7284,"event_id":3134,"slug":"3134-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrivals back near normal: 18% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 5:16 PM and 6:16 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 53% at worst → 18% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:16:29.145144Z","time":"6:16 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:16 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:16:00Z","time":"6:16 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:16 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:16:28.661003Z","time":"6:16 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:16 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMzoxNjoyOS4xNDUxNDQrMDA6MDB8NzI4NA","measurement":{"window":"5:16 PM–6:16 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"18%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7284,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7212,"event_id":3140,"slug":"3140-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 79%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 56%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"82% → 79% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:39.662826Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:37.678010Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS42NjI4MjYrMDA6MDB8NzIxMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"79%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7212,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7211,"event_id":3030,"slug":"3030-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"80% → 78% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:39.658073Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:37.678010Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS42NTgwNzMrMDA6MDB8NzIxMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"78%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":88,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7211,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7017,"event_id":3057,"slug":"3057-bwi-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 61%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"73% → 61%; calm-weather level 54%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.924897Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS45MjQ4OTcrMDA6MDB8NzAxNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7017,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6972,"event_id":3018,"slug":"3018-bwi-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 66% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:56:50.195073Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:56:48.842615Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNTo1Njo1MC4xOTUwNzMrMDA6MDB8Njk3Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"BWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6972,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6917,"event_id":3020,"slug":"3020-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 13% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 8:05 AM and 9:05 AM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 53% at worst → 13% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:05:08.961249Z","time":"9:05 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:05 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:05 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:05:00Z","time":"9:05 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:05 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:05 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:05:08.498914Z","time":"9:05 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:05 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:05 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNDowNTowOC45NjEyNDkrMDA6MDB8NjkxNw","measurement":{"window":"8:05 AM–9:05 AM EST","n":15,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"13%","baseline_pct":"10%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6917,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6880,"event_id":3017,"slug":"3017-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for BWI departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:56:13.932984Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:56:13.255613Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxMTo1NjoxMy45MzI5ODQrMDA6MDB8Njg4MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":88,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6880,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6869,"event_id":2999,"slug":"2999-bwi-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 40%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 40%; calm-weather level 35%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T10:56:46.346967Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T10:56:44.037817Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxMDo1Njo0Ni4zNDY5NjcrMDA6MDB8Njg2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"BWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6869,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxMDo1Njo0Ni4zNDY5NjcrMDA6MDB8Njg2OQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDozMzozMS4wMTA0NjMrMDA6MDB8ODY5Nw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

BWI arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 71% → 42%

\n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:33 PM–11:33 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

BWI departure delays ease: 60% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 72% → 60%

\n \n

Of 20 departures that took off between 10:02 PM and 11:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:02 PM–11:02 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 60%Typical 52%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 78%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 78%

\n

What changed: 78% → 78% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 78%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 67%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 67% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 67%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 32 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

BWI departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 60% at worst → 17% now

\n \n

Of 24 departures that took off between 8:09 PM and 9:09 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 8:09 PM–9:09 PM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 17%Typical 41%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 34 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

BWI departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 67% at worst → 21% now

\n \n

Of 24 departures that took off between 6:13 PM and 7:13 PM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 6:13 PM–7:13 PM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 21%Typical 35%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 10\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

BWI departures back near normal: 4% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 77% at worst → 4% now

\n \n

Of 24 departures that took off between 8:03 PM and 9:03 PM EST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 8:03 PM–9:03 PM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 4%Typical 41%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BWI\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

BWI arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 75% at worst → 0% now

\n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:46 PM and 11:46 PM EST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 10:46 PM–11:46 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 0%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

BWI departures back near normal: 14% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 69% at worst → 14% now

\n \n

Of 22 departures that took off between 7:50 PM and 8:50 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 7:50 PM–8:50 PM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 14%Typical 41%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 52%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%, near normal

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What changed: 59% → 52%; calm-weather level 49%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 52%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n arrivals\n \n \n
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BWI arrivals running late: 48% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 21 arrivals that landed between 9:30 PM and 10:30 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 9:30 PM–10:30 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 48%Typical 19%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 72%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 72% delay risk for BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 72%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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BWI departure delays ease: 40% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 75% → 40%

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Of 20 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 7:25 PM–8:25 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 40%Typical 38%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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BWI departures back near normal: 8% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 43% at worst → 8% now

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Of 26 departures that took off between 10:41 AM and 11:41 AM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 10:41 AM–11:41 AM ESTSample 26 flightsLate 8%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 23%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 23%, near normal

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What changed: 41% → 23%; calm-weather level 25%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 23% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 23%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n arrivals\n \n \n
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BWI arrival delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 58% → 71%

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Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 9:40 PM–10:40 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 71%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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BWI departure delays ease: 61% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 67% → 61%

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Of 23 departures that took off between 5:49 PM and 6:49 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 5:49 PM–6:49 PM ESTSample 23 flightsLate 61%Typical 35%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BWI\n arrivals\n \n \n
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BWI arrivals back near normal: 18% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 53% at worst → 18% now

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Of 17 arrivals that landed between 5:16 PM and 6:16 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 5:16 PM–6:16 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 18%Typical 19%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 79%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 79%

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What changed: 82% → 79% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 56%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 79%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 78%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%

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What changed: 80% → 78% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 78%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 61%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 61%, near normal

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What changed: 73% → 61%; calm-weather level 54%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 61%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 66%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 66%

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What changed: 58% → 66% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 66%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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BWI departures back near normal: 13% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 53% at worst → 13% now

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Of 15 departures that took off between 8:05 AM and 9:05 AM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 8:05 AM–9:05 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 13%Typical 10%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 42% delay risk for BWI departures 9 AM–noon Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 42%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View BWI\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 40%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n BWI\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 40%, near normal

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What changed: 50% → 40%; calm-weather level 35%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 40%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View BWI\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=BWI"}