{"items":[{"id":8697,"event_id":3769,"slug":"3769-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 71% → 42%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:31.010463Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:00Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.356312Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDozMzozMS4wMTA0NjMrMDA6MDB8ODY5Nw","measurement":{"window":"10:33 PM–11:33 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"42%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8697,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8682,"event_id":3639,"slug":"3639-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departure delays ease: 60% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 10:02 PM and 11:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 72% → 60%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:02:53.351131Z","time":"11:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:02:00Z","time":"11:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:02:52.399853Z","time":"11:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDowMjo1My4zNTExMzErMDA6MDB8ODY4Mg","measurement":{"window":"10:02 PM–11:02 PM EST","n":20,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"60%","baseline_pct":"52%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":20.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8682,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8636,"event_id":3740,"slug":"3740-bwi-aircraft-turns","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Fewer tight aircraft turns at BWI: 10 of 22 departures in the next 90 min, still high","body":"Of the 22 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 9:59 PM and 11:29 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":"tight share 54% → 45%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:59:41.899063Z","time":"9:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:59:00Z","time":"9:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:59:40.740337Z","time":"9:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo1OTo0MS44OTkwNjMrMDA6MDB8ODYzNg","measure":{"chips":[["Next","9:59 PM–11:29 PM EST"],["Tight turns","10 of 22"],["Share","45%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","9:59 PM–11:29 PM EST · 22 departures, aircraft known for 22"],["Tight turns","10 (45%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 7 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 3044 to RDU at 10:26 PM: aircraft N8789Q, inbound WN 1957 from BOS (airborne), -28 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1101 to ORF at 10:32 PM: aircraft N8826Q, inbound WN 3667 from SAN (airborne), -20 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4036 to DTW at 10:16 PM: aircraft N8570W, inbound WN 1599 from MSY (airborne), -18 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4310 to BUF at 10:29 PM: aircraft N8991S, inbound WN 4102 from SRQ (airborne), -17 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1171 to STL at 10:44 PM: aircraft N8932Q, inbound WN 2066 from HOU (airborne), -2 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8636,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8567,"event_id":3695,"slug":"3695-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 78%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"78% → 78% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.759224Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43NTkyMjQrMDA6MDB8ODU2Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"78%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8567,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8406,"event_id":3694,"slug":"3694-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 67% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.510070Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS41MTAwNzArMDA6MDB8ODQwNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8406,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8222,"event_id":3594,"slug":"3594-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 8:09 PM and 9:09 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 60% at worst → 17% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:09:51.596942Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:09 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:09:00Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:09 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:09 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T02:09:50.517476Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 9:09 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 02:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMjowOTo1MS41OTY5NDIrMDA6MDB8ODIyMg","measurement":{"window":"8:09 PM–9:09 PM EST","n":24,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"17%","baseline_pct":"41%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8222,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8193,"event_id":3585,"slug":"3585-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 6:13 PM and 7:13 PM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 67% at worst → 21% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:13:10.739451Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:13 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:13:00Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:13 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:13 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:13:09.980832Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:13 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMDoxMzoxMC43Mzk0NTErMDA6MDB8ODE5Mw","measurement":{"window":"6:13 PM–7:13 PM EST","n":24,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"21%","baseline_pct":"35%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":9.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8193,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8122,"event_id":3549,"slug":"3549-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 4% late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 8:03 PM and 9:03 PM EST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 77% at worst → 4% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:03:44.842596Z","time":"9:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:03:00Z","time":"9:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:03 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:03:44.367962Z","time":"9:03 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:03 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMjowMzo0NC44NDI1OTYrMDA6MDB8ODEyMg","measurement":{"window":"8:03 PM–9:03 PM EST","n":24,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"4%","baseline_pct":"41%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8122,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8034,"event_id":3511,"slug":"3511-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:46 PM and 11:46 PM EST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 75% at worst → 0% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:46:33.721368Z","time":"11:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:46 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:46:00Z","time":"11:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T04:46:33.076430Z","time":"11:46 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 11:46 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 04:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNDo0NjozMy43MjEzNjgrMDA6MDB8ODAzNA","measurement":{"window":"10:46 PM–11:46 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-10.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8034,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7994,"event_id":3440,"slug":"3440-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 14% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 7:50 PM and 8:50 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 69% at worst → 14% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:50:54.003465Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:50:00Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:50:51.242182Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMTo1MDo1NC4wMDM0NjUrMDA6MDB8Nzk5NA","measurement":{"window":"7:50 PM–8:50 PM EST","n":22,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"14%","baseline_pct":"41%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7994,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7990,"event_id":3488,"slug":"3488-bwi-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"59% → 52%; calm-weather level 49%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:27:30.671929Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T01:27:29.177630Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMToyNzozMC42NzE5MjkrMDA6MDB8Nzk5MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7990,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7915,"event_id":3471,"slug":"3471-bwi-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"BWI: 8 of 17 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 19 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 2:56 PM and 4:26 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:56:57.536051Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:56:00Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:56:55.355624Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxOTo1Njo1Ny41MzYwNTErMDA6MDB8NzkxNQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","2:56 PM–4:26 PM EST"],["Tight turns","8 of 17"],["Share","47%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","2:56 PM–4:26 PM EST · 19 departures, aircraft known for 17"],["Tight turns","8 (47%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 4374 to SAN at 3:46 PM: aircraft N9008, inbound WN 670 from MYR (airborne), 13 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 237 to RDU at 4:01 PM: aircraft N438WN, inbound WN 237 from PWM (airborne), 18 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3017 to ATL at 4:15 PM: aircraft N8719Q, inbound WN 849 from FLL (airborne), 18 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 697 to ALB at 3:42 PM: aircraft N901WN, inbound WN 697 from RDU (airborne), 22 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1131 to PWM at 3:01 PM: aircraft N8816Q, inbound WN 4686 from IND (landed), 24 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7915,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7793,"event_id":3406,"slug":"3406-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrivals running late: 48% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 9:30 PM and 10:30 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:30:05.071727Z","time":"10:30 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:30 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:30:00Z","time":"10:30 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:30 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:30:03.025327Z","time":"10:30 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 10:30 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMzozMDowNS4wNzE3MjcrMDA6MDB8Nzc5Mw","measurement":{"window":"9:30 PM–10:30 PM EST","n":21,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"48%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7793,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7763,"event_id":3390,"slug":"3390-bwi-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 72% delay risk for BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:27:56.222124Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:27:53.973199Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMToyNzo1Ni4yMjIxMjQrMDA6MDB8Nzc2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"72%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7763,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7761,"event_id":3336,"slug":"3336-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departure delays ease: 40% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 75% → 40%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:25:51.305033Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:25:00Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:25:49.505579Z","time":"8:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMToyNTo1MS4zMDUwMzMrMDA6MDB8Nzc2MQ","measurement":{"window":"7:25 PM–8:25 PM EST","n":20,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"40%","baseline_pct":"38%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7761,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7714,"event_id":3362,"slug":"3362-bwi-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"BWI: 8 of 23 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 31 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 5:00 PM and 6:30 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 23. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:19.793529Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:16.822714Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMjowMDoxOS43OTM1MjkrMDA6MDB8NzcxNA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","5:00 PM–6:30 PM EST"],["Tight turns","8 of 23"],["Share","35%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","5:00 PM–6:30 PM EST · 31 departures, aircraft known for 23"],["Tight turns","8 (35%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 7 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 4722 to BUF at 6:13 PM: aircraft N253WN, inbound WN 203 from ATL (airborne), -13 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4567 to RSW at 5:53 PM: aircraft N276WN, inbound WN 822 from PUJ (airborne), 3 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 658 to HOU at 5:48 PM: aircraft N7835A, inbound WN 3970 from SAV (airborne), 10 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1459 to RDU at 5:56 PM: aircraft N286WN, inbound WN 461 from RDU (airborne), 14 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2834 to PVD at 6:13 PM: aircraft N220WN, inbound WN 1492 from CHS (airborne), 15 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7714,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7578,"event_id":3289,"slug":"3289-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departures back near normal: 8% late in the last hour","body":"Of 26 departures that took off between 10:41 AM and 11:41 AM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 43% at worst → 8% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:41:05.694996Z","time":"11:41 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:41 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:41:00Z","time":"11:41 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:41 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T16:41:05.282804Z","time":"11:41 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 11:41 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 16:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNjo0MTowNS42OTQ5OTYrMDA6MDB8NzU3OA","measurement":{"window":"10:41 AM–11:41 AM EST","n":26,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"8%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7578,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7521,"event_id":3245,"slug":"3245-bwi-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 23%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 23% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 23%; calm-weather level 25%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:59:42.975597Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:59:36.897287Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMDo1OTo0Mi45NzU1OTcrMDA6MDB8NzUyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"23%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"BWI departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":90,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7521,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7415,"event_id":3206,"slug":"3206-bwi-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrival delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 58% → 71%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:40:21.968179Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:40:00Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:40:21.261371Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMzo0MDoyMS45NjgxNzkrMDA6MDB8NzQxNQ","measurement":{"window":"9:40 PM–10:40 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7415,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7296,"event_id":3040,"slug":"3040-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI departure delays ease: 61% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 5:49 PM and 6:49 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 67% → 61%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:49:23.935760Z","time":"6:49 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:49 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:49 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:49:00Z","time":"6:49 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:49 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:49 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:49:21.553040Z","time":"6:49 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:49 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:49 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMzo0OToyMy45MzU3NjArMDA6MDB8NzI5Ng","measurement":{"window":"5:49 PM–6:49 PM EST","n":23,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"61%","baseline_pct":"35%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7296,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7284,"event_id":3134,"slug":"3134-bwi-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"BWI arrivals back near normal: 18% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 5:16 PM and 6:16 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 53% at worst → 18% now","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:16:29.145144Z","time":"6:16 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:16 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:16:00Z","time":"6:16 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:16 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:16:28.661003Z","time":"6:16 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:16 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMzoxNjoyOS4xNDUxNDQrMDA6MDB8NzI4NA","measurement":{"window":"5:16 PM–6:16 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"18%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7284,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7212,"event_id":3140,"slug":"3140-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 79%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 56%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"82% → 79% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:39.662826Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:37.678010Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS42NjI4MjYrMDA6MDB8NzIxMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"79%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7212,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7211,"event_id":3030,"slug":"3030-bwi-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"80% → 78% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:39.658073Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:37.678010Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS42NTgwNzMrMDA6MDB8NzIxMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"78%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"BWI departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":88,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7211,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7017,"event_id":3057,"slug":"3057-bwi-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 61%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"73% → 61%; calm-weather level 54%","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.924897Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS45MjQ4OTcrMDA6MDB8NzAxNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"BWI departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7017,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6972,"event_id":3018,"slug":"3018-bwi-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 66% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["BWI"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:56:50.195073Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:56:48.842615Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNTo1Njo1MC4xOTUwNzMrMDA6MDB8Njk3Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"BWI departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6972,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNTo1Njo1MC4xOTUwNzMrMDA6MDB8Njk3Mg","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDozMzozMS4wMTA0NjMrMDA6MDB8ODY5Nw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n BWI\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 71% → 42%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +5Show all 5 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI departure delays ease: 60% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 72% → 60%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n INBOUND\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fewer tight aircraft turns at BWI: 10 of 22 departures in the next 90 min, still high

\n ▼ tight share 54% → 45%\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +5Show all 5 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 78%

\n ▼ 78% → 78% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 67% delay risk for BWI departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n 67% risk\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI departures back near normal: 17% late in the last hour

\n late share 60% at worst → 17% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI departures back near normal: 21% late in the last hour

\n late share 67% at worst → 21% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI departures back near normal: 4% late in the last hour

\n late share 77% at worst → 4% now\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n BWI\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

\n late share 75% at worst → 0% now\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI departures back near normal: 14% late in the last hour

\n late share 69% at worst → 14% now\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%, near normal

\n 59% → 52%; calm-weather level 49%\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n INBOUND\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI: 8 of 17 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 8 of 17\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n BWI\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI arrivals running late: 48% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 48% late\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 72% delay risk for BWI departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

\n 72% risk\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI departure delays ease: 40% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 75% → 40%\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n INBOUND\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI: 8 of 23 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 8 of 23\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI departures back near normal: 8% late in the last hour

\n late share 43% at worst → 8% now\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 23%, near normal

\n 41% → 23%; calm-weather level 25%\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n BWI\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI arrival delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 58% → 71%\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI departure delays ease: 61% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 67% → 61%\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n BWI\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

BWI arrivals back near normal: 18% late in the last hour

\n late share 53% at worst → 18% now\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 79%

\n ▼ 82% → 79% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +4Show all 4 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%

\n ▼ 80% → 78% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers BWI departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 61%, near normal

\n 73% → 61%; calm-weather level 54%\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n BWI\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises BWI departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 66%

\n ▲ 58% → 66% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
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"],"filters":"airport=BWI&view=terminal"}