{"items":[{"id":12329,"event_id":4819,"slug":"4819-dal-restriction","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA no longer lists a airport closure at Love Field","body":"The airport closure at Love Field (DAL) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:59 AM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:32 PM CST.","what_changed":"airport closure no longer listed","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:03:01.522541Z","time":"6:03 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:03 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:59:23.734000Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:59 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:03:01.482880Z","time":"6:03 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:03 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMjowMzowMS41MjI1NDErMDA6MDB8MTIzMjk","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12329,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12296,"event_id":4761,"slug":"4761-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 74%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"61% → 74% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.291412Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"29 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"29 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4yOTE0MTIrMDA6MDB8MTIyOTY","forecast":{"p_pct":"74%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12296,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12295,"event_id":4658,"slug":"4658-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 64%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 64% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.288129Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"29 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"29 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4yODgxMjkrMDA6MDB8MTIyOTU","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":4.9,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12295,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12174,"event_id":4800,"slug":"4800-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 3 → 3","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.743040Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC43NDMwNDArMDA6MDB8MTIxNzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12174,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11930,"event_id":4814,"slug":"4814-dal-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"33% → 30%; calm-weather level 9%","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:32.250184Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:31.773008Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwODoyNzozMi4yNTAxODQrMDA6MDB8MTE5MzA","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":4.7,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11930,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11876,"event_id":4735,"slug":"4735-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 64%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"52% → 64% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:36.071153Z","time":"1:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"1:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNi4wNzExNTMrMDA6MDB8MTE4NzY","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11876,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11403,"event_id":4771,"slug":"4771-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 19 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (49%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:57:37.194700Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:57:36.188611Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMzo1NzozNy4xOTQ3MDArMDA6MDB8MTE0MDM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.2,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11403,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11376,"event_id":4764,"slug":"4764-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field arrivals running late: 85% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:45:18.066595Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:45:00Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:45:17.129062Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMzo0NToxOC4wNjY1OTUrMDA6MDB8MTEzNzY","measurement":{"window":"4:45 PM–5:45 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"85%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":57.3},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11376,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11217,"event_id":4744,"slug":"4744-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field departures running late: 85% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:59:17.517888Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:59:00Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:59:16.580242Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1OToxNy41MTc4ODgrMDA6MDB8MTEyMTc","measurement":{"window":"1:59 PM–2:59 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"85%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":83.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11217,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11215,"event_id":4563,"slug":"4563-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 90%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"79% → 90% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:14.903551Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:11.529419Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1NzoxNC45MDM1NTErMDA6MDB8MTEyMTU","forecast":{"p_pct":"90%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11215,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11164,"event_id":4657,"slug":"4657-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 3–6 PM Saturday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 33 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 3","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:19.198484Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:12.179045Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDoyNjoxOS4xOTg0ODQrMDA6MDB8MTExNjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.9,"target":"DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11164,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11047,"event_id":4492,"slug":"4492-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 89%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"78% → 89% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:52.403740Z","time":"12:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"12:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1Mi40MDM3NDArMDA6MDB8MTEwNDc","forecast":{"p_pct":"89%","expected_cancellations":5.5,"target":"DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":11047,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10961,"event_id":4685,"slug":"4685-dal-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Love Field: 8 of 17 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 21 departures scheduled from Love Field (DAL) between 12:00 PM and 1:30 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DAL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:20.609920Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:19.088113Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODowMDoyMC42MDk5MjArMDA6MDB8MTA5NjE","measure":{"chips":[["Next","12:00 PM–1:30 PM CST"],["Tight turns","8 of 17"],["Share","47%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","12:00 PM–1:30 PM CST · 21 departures, aircraft known for 17"],["Tight turns","8 (47%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 3146 to MSY at 12:46 PM: aircraft N944WN, inbound WN 1379 from PNS (not departed), -58 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 18 to ABQ at 12:31 PM: aircraft N478WN, inbound WN 18 from HOU (not departed), -49 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 25 to HOU at 12:42 PM: aircraft N7723E, inbound WN 8525 from ECP (airborne), -36 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2565 to MDW at 12:26 PM: aircraft N1811U, inbound WN 268 from BWI (airborne), -5 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3823 to SLC at 1:00 PM: aircraft N9017L, inbound WN 1686 from MCO (airborne), -3 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10961,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10836,"event_id":4656,"slug":"4656-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Love Field departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.426412Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC40MjY0MTIrMDA6MDB8MTA4MzY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.3,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10836,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10833,"event_id":4353,"slug":"4353-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 75%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"63% → 75% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.414160Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC40MTQxNjArMDA6MDB8MTA4MzM","forecast":{"p_pct":"75%","expected_cancellations":6.3,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10833,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10524,"event_id":4495,"slug":"4495-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 3 → 3","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:08.425180Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:05.802777Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowOC40MjUxODArMDA6MDB8MTA1MjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.9,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10524,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10418,"event_id":4496,"slug":"4496-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 3–6 PM Saturday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 33 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 3","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.364406Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4zNjQ0MDYrMDA6MDB8MTA0MTg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.0,"target":"DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10418,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10416,"event_id":4494,"slug":"4494-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 36 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 15 → 3","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.343849Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4zNDM4NDkrMDA6MDB8MTA0MTY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10416,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10412,"event_id":4562,"slug":"4562-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.321556Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4zMjE1NTYrMDA6MDB8MTA0MTI","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10412,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10259,"event_id":4493,"slug":"4493-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.642375Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC42NDIzNzUrMDA6MDB8MTAyNTk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.3,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10259,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10158,"event_id":4354,"slug":"4354-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 17 → 2","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.652505Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS42NTI1MDUrMDA6MDB8MTAxNTg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10158,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10157,"event_id":4305,"slug":"4305-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 36 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 16 → 2","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.650208Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS42NTAyMDgrMDA6MDB8MTAxNTc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10157,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10156,"event_id":4304,"slug":"4304-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Saturday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 30%; calm-weather level 15%","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.644817Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"4:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS42NDQ4MTcrMDA6MDB8MTAxNTU","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10155,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9612,"event_id":4222,"slug":"4222-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 23 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Traffic restriction\n DAL\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists a airport closure at Love Field

\n

What changed: airport closure no longer listed

\n \n

The airport closure at Love Field (DAL) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:59 AM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:32 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 29 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 74%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 74%

\n

What changed: 61% → 74% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 74%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 29 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 64%

\n

What changed: 55% → 64% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 3 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 30%, near normal

\n

What changed: 33% → 30%; calm-weather level 9%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 30%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 64%

\n

What changed: 52% → 64% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 12 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 9 cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 PM Saturday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 19 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (49%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 12 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Love Field arrivals running late: 85% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 4:45 PM–5:45 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Love Field departures running late: 85% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 1:59 PM–2:59 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 30%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 15 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 90%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 90%

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What changed: 79% → 90% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 90%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 16 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 3–6 PM Saturday to about 3

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What changed: about 5 → 3

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 33 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 17 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 89%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 89%

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What changed: 78% → 89% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 89%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Love Field: 8 of 17 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

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Of the 21 departures scheduled from Love Field (DAL) between 12:00 PM and 1:30 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DAL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

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Next 12:00 PM–1:30 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 17Share 47%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 6 cancellations among Love Field departures noon–3 PM Saturday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 75%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 75%

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What changed: 63% → 75% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 75%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 22 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 3

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What changed: about 3 → 3

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 23 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 3–6 PM Saturday to about 3

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What changed: about 14 → 3

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 33 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 23 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 3

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What changed: about 15 → 3

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 36 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 23 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 46%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 24 h ago\n
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Model expects about 8 cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Saturday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 2

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What changed: about 17 → 2

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 2

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What changed: about 16 → 2

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 36 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Saturday to about 2

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What changed: about 13 → 2

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

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What changed: 40% → 30%; calm-weather level 15%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 30%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 33 h ago\n
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Model expects about 6 cancellations among Love Field departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 28 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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