{"items":[{"id":12422,"event_id":5108,"slug":"5108-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 67% delay risk for Love Field departures 6–9 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Sunday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.450330Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:37.113811Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC40NTAzMzArMDA6MDB8MTI0MjI","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":39,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12422,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12421,"event_id":4735,"slug":"4735-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 81%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"64% → 81% since the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.447353Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:37.113811Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC40NDczNTMrMDA6MDB8MTI0MjE","forecast":{"p_pct":"81%","expected_cancellations":3.9,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":12421,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12337,"event_id":5077,"slug":"5077-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 AM and 7:14 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:14:22.109753Z","time":"7:14 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"16 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:14 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:14:00Z","time":"7:14 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"16 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:14 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:14:21.337575Z","time":"7:14 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"16 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:14 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoxNDoyMi4xMDk3NTMrMDA6MDB8MTIzMzc","measurement":{"window":"6:14 AM–7:14 AM CST","n":12,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"5%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":21.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12337,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12329,"event_id":4819,"slug":"4819-dal-restriction","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA no longer lists a airport closure at Love Field","body":"The airport closure at Love Field (DAL) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:59 AM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:32 PM CST.","what_changed":"airport closure no longer listed","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:03:01.522541Z","time":"6:03 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:03 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:59:23.734000Z","time":"5:59 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:59 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:03:01.482880Z","time":"6:03 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:03 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMjowMzowMS41MjI1NDErMDA6MDB8MTIzMjk","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12329,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12296,"event_id":4761,"slug":"4761-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 74%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"61% → 74% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.291412Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4yOTE0MTIrMDA6MDB8MTIyOTY","forecast":{"p_pct":"74%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12296,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12295,"event_id":4658,"slug":"4658-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 64%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 64% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.288129Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4yODgxMjkrMDA6MDB8MTIyOTU","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":4.9,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12295,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12174,"event_id":4800,"slug":"4800-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 3 → 3","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.743040Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC43NDMwNDArMDA6MDB8MTIxNzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12174,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12173,"event_id":4658,"slug":"4658-dal-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 55% since the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.723506Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC43MjM1MDYrMDA6MDB8MTIxNzM","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":3.0,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12295,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12295,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 64%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.288129Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":12057,"event_id":4800,"slug":"4800-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 3 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:26.119947Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:58 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:58:24.345331Z","time":"3:58 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:58 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwOTo1ODoyNi4xMTk5NDcrMDA6MDB8MTIwNTc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":3.4,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T09:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12174,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12174,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday to about 3","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.743040Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"}}},{"id":11930,"event_id":4814,"slug":"4814-dal-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"33% → 30%; calm-weather level 9%","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:32.250184Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:31.773008Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwODoyNzozMi4yNTAxODQrMDA6MDB8MTE5MzA","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":4.7,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11930,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11876,"event_id":4735,"slug":"4735-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 64%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"52% → 64% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:36.071153Z","time":"1:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"1:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNi4wNzExNTMrMDA6MDB8MTE4NzY","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":12421,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12421,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 81%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.447353Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"}}},{"id":11721,"event_id":4800,"slug":"4800-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:17.425247Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:16.533924Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy40MjUyNDcrMDA6MDB8MTE3MjE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.1,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12174,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12174,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday to about 3","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.743040Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"}}},{"id":11720,"event_id":4658,"slug":"4658-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"41% → 55% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:17.419978Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:16.533924Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy40MTk5NzgrMDA6MDB8MTE3MjA","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":3.9,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12295,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12295,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 64%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.288129Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":11719,"event_id":4814,"slug":"4814-dal-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday at 33%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 33% since the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:17.413837Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:16.533924Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy40MTM4MzcrMDA6MDB8MTE3MTk","forecast":{"p_pct":"33%","expected_cancellations":5.1,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11930,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11930,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 30%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:32.250184Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"}}},{"id":11658,"event_id":4800,"slug":"4800-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 7 among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 7 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:22.366605Z","time":"9:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:21.263761Z","time":"9:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMzo1NzoyMi4zNjY2MDUrMDA6MDB8MTE2NTg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.6,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12174,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12174,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday to about 3","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.743040Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"}}},{"id":11559,"event_id":4819,"slug":"4819-dal-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA reports Love Field airport closure until 6:00 AM CST","body":"The FAA’s airport status lists a closure at Love Field (DAL) until 6:00 AM CST.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:33:26.748628Z","time":"8:33 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:33 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:29:00Z","time":"8:29 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:29 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:29 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:33:26.724345Z","time":"8:33 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:33 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMjozMzoyNi43NDg2MjgrMDA6MDB8MTE1NTk","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12329,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12329,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"FAA no longer lists a airport closure at Love Field","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:03:01.522541Z","time":"6:03 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:03 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:03 UTC"}}},{"id":11553,"event_id":4814,"slug":"4814-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:27:20.245898Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T02:27:18.769808Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 02:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMjoyNzoyMC4yNDU4OTgrMDA6MDB8MTE1NTM","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11930,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":11930,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 30%, near normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:32.250184Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"}}},{"id":11501,"event_id":4800,"slug":"4800-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:27:53.988457Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T01:27:51.224569Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMToyNzo1My45ODg0NTcrMDA6MDB8MTE1MDE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.3,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12174,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12174,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday to about 3","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.743040Z","time":"4:55 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 4:55 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"}}},{"id":11403,"event_id":4771,"slug":"4771-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 19 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (49%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:57:37.194700Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:57:36.188611Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMzo1NzozNy4xOTQ3MDArMDA6MDB8MTE0MDM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.2,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11403,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11376,"event_id":4764,"slug":"4764-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field arrivals running late: 85% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:45:18.066595Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:45:00Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:45:17.129062Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMzo0NToxOC4wNjY1OTUrMDA6MDB8MTEzNzY","measurement":{"window":"4:45 PM–5:45 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"85%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":57.3},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11376,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11355,"event_id":4761,"slug":"4761-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 61% delay risk for Love Field departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:58:14.843164Z","time":"4:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:58:13.671757Z","time":"4:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMjo1ODoxNC44NDMxNjQrMDA6MDB8MTEzNTU","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12296,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12296,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 74%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.291412Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"}}},{"id":11217,"event_id":4744,"slug":"4744-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field departures running late: 85% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:59:17.517888Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:59:00Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:59:16.580242Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1OToxNy41MTc4ODgrMDA6MDB8MTEyMTc","measurement":{"window":"1:59 PM–2:59 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"85%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":83.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11217,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11215,"event_id":4563,"slug":"4563-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 90%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"79% → 90% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:14.903551Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:11.529419Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1NzoxNC45MDM1NTErMDA6MDB8MTEyMTU","forecast":{"p_pct":"90%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11215,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11172,"event_id":4735,"slug":"4735-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Love Field departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:28:25.226076Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:28:24.006903Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDoyODoyNS4yMjYwNzYrMDA6MDB8MTExNzI","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":21.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":12421,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":12421,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 81%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.447353Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"}}},{"id":11164,"event_id":4657,"slug":"4657-dal-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 3–6 PM Saturday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 33 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 3","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:19.198484Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:12.179045Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDoyNjoxOS4xOTg0ODQrMDA6MDB8MTExNjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.9,"target":"DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11164,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDoyNjoxOS4xOTg0ODQrMDA6MDB8MTExNjQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC40NTAzMzArMDA6MDB8MTI0MjI","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 4 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 67%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 67% delay risk for Love Field departures 6–9 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Sunday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 67%Horizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 4 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 81%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 81%

\n

What changed: 64% → 81% since the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 81%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 16 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Love Field departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 AM and 7:14 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:14 AM–7:14 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 5%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Traffic restriction\n DAL\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists a airport closure at Love Field

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What changed: airport closure no longer listed

\n \n

The airport closure at Love Field (DAL) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:59 AM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:32 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 74%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 74%

\n

What changed: 61% → 74% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 74%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 64%

\n

What changed: 55% → 64% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 3 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 55%

\n

What changed: 55% → 55% since the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 3 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 30%, near normal

\n

What changed: 33% → 30%; calm-weather level 9%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 30%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 64%

\n

What changed: 52% → 64% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 55%

\n

What changed: 41% → 55% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 33%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday at 33%

\n

What changed: 44% → 33% since the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 33%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 7 among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 7 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n DAL\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports Love Field airport closure until 6:00 AM CST

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a closure at Love Field (DAL) until 6:00 AM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 10.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Love Field departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 19 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (49%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Love Field arrivals running late: 85% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 4:45 PM–5:45 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 61%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 61% delay risk for Love Field departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 61%Horizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Love Field departures running late: 85% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 1:59 PM–2:59 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 30%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 90%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 90%

\n

What changed: 79% → 90% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 90%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 17 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 52%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Love Field departures noon–3 PM Sunday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 52%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 17 h ago\n
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\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Love Field departures 3–6 PM Saturday to about 3

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What changed: about 5 → 3

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 33 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=DAL&mode=all"}