{"items":[{"id":12337,"event_id":5077,"slug":"5077-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 AM and 7:14 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:14:22.109753Z","time":"7:14 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:14 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:14:00Z","time":"7:14 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:14 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:14:21.337575Z","time":"7:14 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 min ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:14 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoxNDoyMi4xMDk3NTMrMDA6MDB8MTIzMzc","measurement":{"window":"6:14 AM–7:14 AM CST","n":12,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"5%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":21.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12337,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12296,"event_id":4761,"slug":"4761-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 74%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"61% → 74% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.291412Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4yOTE0MTIrMDA6MDB8MTIyOTY","forecast":{"p_pct":"74%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12296,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12295,"event_id":4658,"slug":"4658-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 64%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 64% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.288129Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4yODgxMjkrMDA6MDB8MTIyOTU","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":4.9,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12295,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11930,"event_id":4814,"slug":"4814-dal-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"33% → 30%; calm-weather level 9%","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:32.250184Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T08:27:31.773008Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwODoyNzozMi4yNTAxODQrMDA6MDB8MTE5MzA","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":4.7,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11930,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11876,"event_id":4735,"slug":"4735-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 64%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"52% → 64% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:36.071153Z","time":"1:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"1:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNi4wNzExNTMrMDA6MDB8MTE4NzY","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11876,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11376,"event_id":4764,"slug":"4764-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field arrivals running late: 85% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:45:18.066595Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:45:00Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T23:45:17.129062Z","time":"5:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 23:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMzo0NToxOC4wNjY1OTUrMDA6MDB8MTEzNzY","measurement":{"window":"4:45 PM–5:45 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"85%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":57.3},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11376,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11217,"event_id":4744,"slug":"4744-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field departures running late: 85% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:59:17.517888Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:59:00Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:59:16.580242Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1OToxNy41MTc4ODgrMDA6MDB8MTEyMTc","measurement":{"window":"1:59 PM–2:59 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"85%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":83.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11217,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11215,"event_id":4563,"slug":"4563-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 90%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"79% → 90% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:14.903551Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:57:11.529419Z","time":"2:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDo1NzoxNC45MDM1NTErMDA6MDB8MTEyMTU","forecast":{"p_pct":"90%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":19,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":11215,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11047,"event_id":4492,"slug":"4492-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 89%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"78% → 89% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:52.403740Z","time":"12:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"12:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1Mi40MDM3NDArMDA6MDB8MTEwNDc","forecast":{"p_pct":"89%","expected_cancellations":5.5,"target":"DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":11047,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10833,"event_id":4353,"slug":"4353-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 75%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"63% → 75% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.414160Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC40MTQxNjArMDA6MDB8MTA4MzM","forecast":{"p_pct":"75%","expected_cancellations":6.3,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":40,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10833,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10412,"event_id":4562,"slug":"4562-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.321556Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"7:26 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4zMjE1NTYrMDA6MDB8MTA0MTI","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":2.8,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10412,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10155,"event_id":4303,"slug":"4303-dal-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 89%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"76% → 89% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.803858Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy44MDM4NTgrMDA6MDB8OTYxMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"89%","expected_cancellations":5.6,"target":"DAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9611,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9503,"event_id":3992,"slug":"3992-dal-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 81%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"92% → 81% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.670888Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS42NzA4ODgrMDA6MDB8OTUwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"81%","expected_cancellations":5.9,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9503,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9134,"event_id":3922,"slug":"3922-dal-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field departure delays worsen: 73% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 1:33 PM and 2:33 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 46% → 73%","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:33:40.780934Z","time":"2:33 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:33 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:33:00Z","time":"2:33 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:33 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:33:39.867755Z","time":"2:33 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:33 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDozMzo0MC43ODA5MzQrMDA6MDB8OTEzNA","measurement":{"window":"1:33 PM–2:33 PM CST","n":15,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"73%","baseline_pct":"30%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9134,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8983,"event_id":3919,"slug":"3919-dal-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 48%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 48%; calm-weather level 43%","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:39.965590Z","time":"9:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:38.542413Z","time":"9:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS45NjU1OTArMDA6MDB8ODk4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8983,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8634,"event_id":3760,"slug":"3760-dal-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 67%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 61%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"72% → 67%; calm-weather level 61%","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:57:39.462416Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:57:38.448228Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo1NzozOS40NjI0MTYrMDA6MDB8ODYzNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"DAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":25,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8634,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8594,"event_id":3650,"slug":"3650-dal-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field departure delays ease: 58% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 7:20 PM and 8:20 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 48% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 83% → 58%","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:20:54.236686Z","time":"8:20 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:20 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:20 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:20:00Z","time":"8:20 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:20 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:20 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:20:52.474901Z","time":"8:20 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:20 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:20 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjoyMDo1NC4yMzY2ODYrMDA6MDB8ODU5NA","measurement":{"window":"7:20 PM–8:20 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"48%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":20.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8594,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8167,"event_id":3573,"slug":"3573-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field departures running late: 69% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 2:31 PM and 3:31 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 28%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 22%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 22%; calm-weather level 15%","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T10:06:08.820591Z","time":"4:06 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 4:06 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 10:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T09:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 3:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T10:05:59.273360Z","time":"4:05 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 4:05 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 10:05 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxMDowNjowOC44MjA1OTErMDA6MDB8ODA3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"22%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"DAL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-10 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.9,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":39,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T09:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 3:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8076,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8008,"event_id":3459,"slug":"3459-dal-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 65%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"77% → 65% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:57:04.020899Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:57:02.116614Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMjo1NzowNC4wMjA4OTkrMDA6MDB8ODAwOA","forecast":{"p_pct":"65%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"DAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8008,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7922,"event_id":3475,"slug":"3475-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Love Field departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 1:28 PM and 2:28 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:06.201794Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:00Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:02.998232Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDoyODowNi4yMDE3OTQrMDA6MDB8NzkyMg","measurement":{"window":"1:28 PM–2:28 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"33%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":20.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7922,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7895,"event_id":3458,"slug":"3458-dal-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T18:56:30.426425Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 18:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T18:56:26.811256Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 18:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxODo1NjozMC40MjY0MjUrMDA6MDB8Nzg5NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"DAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":38,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T18:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7895,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7854,"event_id":3431,"slug":"3431-dal-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 31%; calm-weather level 28%","airports":["DAL"],"metros":["DALLAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T11:27:59.823036Z","time":"5:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 11:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T11:27:58.965876Z","time":"5:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 11:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxMToyNzo1OS44MjMwMzYrMDA6MDB8Nzg1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7854,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxMToyNzo1OS44MjMwMzYrMDA6MDB8Nzg1NA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoxNDoyMi4xMDk3NTMrMDA6MDB8MTIzMzc","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 6 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Love Field departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 AM and 7:14 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:14 AM–7:14 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 5%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 74%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 74%

\n

What changed: 61% → 74% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 74%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 64%

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What changed: 55% → 64% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 30%, near normal

\n

What changed: 33% → 30%; calm-weather level 9%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 30%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 15\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 64%

\n

What changed: 52% → 64% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Love Field arrivals running late: 85% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 4:45 PM–5:45 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Love Field departures running late: 85% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 1:59 PM–2:59 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 30%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 16 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 90%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 90%

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What changed: 79% → 90% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 90%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 18 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 89%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 89%

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What changed: 78% → 89% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 89%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 20 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 75%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 75%

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What changed: 63% → 75% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 75%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 23 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 46%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 26 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 30%, near normal

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What changed: 40% → 30%; calm-weather level 15%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 30%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 34 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 89%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 89%

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What changed: 76% → 89% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 89%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 37 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 81%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 81%

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What changed: 92% → 81% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 81%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 40 h ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Love Field departure delays worsen: 73% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 46% → 73%

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Of 15 departures that took off between 1:33 PM and 2:33 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 1:33 PM–2:33 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 73%Typical 30%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 45 h ago\n
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\n Forecast 48%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 48%, near normal

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What changed: 48% → 48%; calm-weather level 43%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 48%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 67%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 67%, near normal

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What changed: 72% → 67%; calm-weather level 61%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 61%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 67%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Love Field departure delays ease: 58% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 83% → 58%

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Of 12 departures that took off between 7:20 PM and 8:20 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 48% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 7:20 PM–8:20 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 48%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 11\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Love Field departures running late: 69% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 departures that took off between 2:31 PM and 3:31 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 2:31 PM–3:31 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 69%Typical 35%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 28%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 28%, near normal

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What changed: 35% → 28%; calm-weather level 27%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 28%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 22%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Tuesday to 22%, near normal

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What changed: 48% → 22%; calm-weather level 15%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 22%Horizon 4.9 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 65%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 65%

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What changed: 77% → 65% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 65%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Love Field departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 departures that took off between 1:28 PM and 2:28 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 1:28 PM–2:28 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 62%Typical 33%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Love Field departures 6–9 PM Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Monday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 57%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DAL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 31%, near normal

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What changed: 43% → 31%; calm-weather level 28%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 31%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DAL\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=DAL"}