{"items":[{"id":8626,"event_id":3814,"slug":"3814-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"National arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 28 arrivals that landed between 8:55 PM and 9:55 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:55:36.659982Z","time":"9:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:55:00Z","time":"9:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:55:35.978946Z","time":"9:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo1NTozNi42NTk5ODIrMDA6MDB8ODYyNg","measurement":{"window":"8:55 PM–9:55 PM EST","n":28,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"54%","baseline_pct":"28%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":19.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8626,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8523,"event_id":3761,"slug":"3761-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"National departures running late: 67% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 departures that took off between 6:05 PM and 7:05 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:05:43.992043Z","time":"7:05 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:05 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:05 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:05:00Z","time":"7:05 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:05 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:05 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:05:43.574715Z","time":"7:05 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:05 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:05 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMDowNTo0My45OTIwNDMrMDA6MDB8ODUyMw","measurement":{"window":"6:05 PM–7:05 PM EST","n":21,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"67%","baseline_pct":"40%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":33.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8523,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8514,"event_id":3736,"slug":"3736-dca-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"National arrivals back near normal: 14% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 54% at worst → 14% now","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:53:11.680073Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:53:00Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:53:11.246848Z","time":"6:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzo1MzoxMS42ODAwNzMrMDA6MDB8ODUxNA","measurement":{"window":"5:53 PM–6:53 PM EST","n":21,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"14%","baseline_pct":"28%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8514,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8461,"event_id":3725,"slug":"3725-dca-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"National: 9 of 24 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 44 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 4:56 PM and 6:26 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 24. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:17.261434Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:00Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNy4yNjE0MzQrMDA6MDB8ODQ2MQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","4:56 PM–6:26 PM EST"],["Tight turns","9 of 24"],["Share","38%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","4:56 PM–6:26 PM EST · 44 departures, aircraft known for 24"],["Tight turns","9 (38%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 4 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","YX 4500 to IND at 5:03 PM: aircraft N420YX, inbound YX 4441 from BDL (airborne), -12 min to turn"],["Tightest","YX 4689 to ATL at 5:36 PM: aircraft N103HQ, inbound YX 4399 from CMH (airborne), 4 min to turn"],["Tightest","OH 5236 to HPN at 5:00 PM: aircraft N545PB, inbound OH 5215 from IAH (landed), 5 min to turn"],["Tightest","OH 5204 to CHS at 5:21 PM: aircraft N540EG, inbound OH 5208 from GSP (airborne), 6 min to turn"],["Tightest","AA 668 to LAX at 5:09 PM: aircraft N318SF, inbound AA 789 from PHX (landed), 20 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8461,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8424,"event_id":3708,"slug":"3708-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for National departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:56:48.032354Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:56:46.376340Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDo1Njo0OC4wMzIzNTQrMDA6MDB8ODQyNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"DCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8424,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8402,"event_id":3691,"slug":"3691-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.198432Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS4xOTg0MzIrMDA6MDB8ODQwMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":1.4,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":78,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8402,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8301,"event_id":3627,"slug":"3627-dca-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"47% → 32%; calm-weather level 28%","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T14:27:02.954939Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T14:27:01.380700Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNDoyNzowMi45NTQ5MzkrMDA6MDB8ODMwMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":78,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8301,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8160,"event_id":3567,"slug":"3567-dca-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"National departures back near normal: 14% late in the last hour","body":"Of 28 departures that took off between 1:28 PM and 2:28 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 73% at worst → 14% now","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T19:28:47.559818Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:28 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 19:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T19:28:00Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:28 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 19:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T19:28:46.919995Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"39 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 2:28 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 19:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQxOToyODo0Ny41NTk4MTgrMDA6MDB8ODE2MA","measurement":{"window":"1:28 PM–2:28 PM EST","n":28,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"14%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8160,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8018,"event_id":3515,"slug":"3515-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"National arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 28 arrivals that landed between 9:36 PM and 10:36 PM EST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:36:16.768008Z","time":"10:36 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:36 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:36 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:36:00Z","time":"10:36 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:36 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:36 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:36:15.960239Z","time":"10:36 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 10:36 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:36 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMzozNjoxNi43NjgwMDgrMDA6MDB8ODAxOA","measurement":{"window":"9:36 PM–10:36 PM EST","n":28,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"28%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8018,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7616,"event_id":3277,"slug":"3277-dca-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 41%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 41%; calm-weather level 34%","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T21:57:14.993690Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T21:57:12.353505Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMTo1NzoxNC45OTM2OTArMDA6MDB8NzYxNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":74,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7616,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7610,"event_id":3297,"slug":"3297-dca-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"National departures back near normal: 25% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 2:44 PM and 3:44 PM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 60% at worst → 25% now","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T20:44:54.838394Z","time":"3:44 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 3:44 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 20:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T20:44:00Z","time":"3:44 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 3:44 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 20:44 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T20:44:53.825269Z","time":"3:44 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 3:44 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 20:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMDo0NDo1NC44MzgzOTQrMDA6MDB8NzYxMA","measurement":{"window":"2:44 PM–3:44 PM EST","n":20,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"25%","baseline_pct":"34%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7610,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7552,"event_id":3282,"slug":"3282-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:26:27.585779Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:26:21.070046Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNDoyNjoyNy41ODU3NzkrMDA6MDB8NzU1Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":2.4,"target":"DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":99,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7552,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7551,"event_id":3281,"slug":"3281-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for National departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:26:27.574172Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:26:21.070046Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNDoyNjoyNy41NzQxNzIrMDA6MDB8NzU1MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":105,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7551,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7430,"event_id":3129,"slug":"3129-dca-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"National arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 27 arrivals that landed between 10:10 PM and 11:10 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 65% → 56%","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T04:10:59.842394Z","time":"11:10 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:10 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 04:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T04:10:00Z","time":"11:10 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:10 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 04:10 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T04:10:59.391941Z","time":"11:10 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:10 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 04:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNDoxMDo1OS44NDIzOTQrMDA6MDB8NzQzMA","measurement":{"window":"10:10 PM–11:10 PM EST","n":27,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"28%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":7430,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7373,"event_id":3064,"slug":"3064-dca-taxi-in","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"National arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 0% took 13+ min","body":"Of 27 aircraft that landed at National (DCA) between 7:59 PM and 8:59 PM EST and have reached the ramp, 0 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.4 minutes; the median was 3.8 minutes. Usually 4% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.","what_changed":"slow share 46% at worst → 0% now","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T02:14:41.055915Z","time":"9:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 02:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:59:00Z","time":"8:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T02:14:39.353741Z","time":"9:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 02:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMjoxNDo0MS4wNTU5MTUrMDA6MDB8NzM3Mw","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","7:59 PM–8:59 PM EST"],["Sample","27 arrivals"],["Slow","0%"],["Usually","4%"]],"rows":[["Landings","7:59 PM–8:59 PM EST · 27 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","0 (0%) took 13+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","4% usually · typical taxi-in 3.4 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","3.8 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7373,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7304,"event_id":3054,"slug":"3054-dca-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers National departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"73% → 60% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:57:35.868297Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:57:34.900734Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMzo1NzozNS44NjgyOTcrMDA6MDB8NzMwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"DCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7304,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7035,"event_id":3021,"slug":"3021-dca-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"National departure delays worsen: 95% late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 11:12 AM and 12:12 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 57% → 95%","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T17:12:27.201331Z","time":"12:12 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 12:12 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 17:12 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T17:12:00Z","time":"12:12 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 12:12 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 17:12 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T17:12:26.559823Z","time":"12:12 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 12:12 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 17:12 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNzoxMjoyNy4yMDEzMzErMDA6MDB8NzAzNQ","measurement":{"window":"11:12 AM–12:12 PM EST","n":19,"late_n":18,"share_pct":"95%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":65.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":7035,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7005,"event_id":3027,"slug":"3027-dca-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 70%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 70% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.828717Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS44Mjg3MTcrMDA6MDB8NzAwNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"70%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":117,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7005,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7004,"event_id":3008,"slug":"3008-dca-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 70%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 135 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 70% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.812882Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS44MTI4ODIrMDA6MDB8NzAwNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"70%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":135,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7004,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6962,"event_id":2990,"slug":"2990-dca-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 69%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 69% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:56:50.097028Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:56:48.842615Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNTo1Njo1MC4wOTcwMjgrMDA6MDB8Njk2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"69%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":123,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":6962,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6954,"event_id":3048,"slug":"3048-dca-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"National: 9 of 26 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 40 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 10:36 AM and 12:06 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 26. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:36:27.515014Z","time":"10:36 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:36 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:36 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:36:00Z","time":"10:36 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:36 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:36 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T15:36:25.309740Z","time":"10:36 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:36 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 15:36 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNTozNjoyNy41MTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8Njk1NA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","10:36 AM–12:06 PM EST"],["Tight turns","9 of 26"],["Share","35%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","10:36 AM–12:06 PM EST · 40 departures, aircraft known for 26"],["Tight turns","9 (35%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","AA 3264 to MSY at 11:27 AM: aircraft N755US, inbound AA 1012 from ORD (not departed), -42 min to turn"],["Tightest","YX 5811 to LGA at 10:56 AM: aircraft N882RW, inbound YX 5742 from LGA (airborne), -25 min to turn"],["Tightest","YX 4429 to HSV at 11:13 AM: aircraft N125HQ, inbound YX 4538 from LGA (not departed), -20 min to turn"],["Tightest","MQ 3462 to CID at 10:39 AM: aircraft N237NN, inbound MQ 4043 from MSP (airborne), -12 min to turn"],["Tightest","G7 4446 to EWR at 11:01 AM: aircraft N579GJ, inbound G7 4444 from EWR (airborne), 8 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6954,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6647,"event_id":2898,"slug":"2898-dca-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"National: 9 of 28 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 42 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 2:27 PM and 3:57 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T19:27:59.015219Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 2:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 19:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T19:27:00Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 2:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 19:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T19:27:57.566882Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 2:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 19:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxOToyNzo1OS4wMTUyMTkrMDA6MDB8NjY0Nw","measure":{"chips":[["Next","2:27 PM–3:57 PM EST"],["Tight turns","9 of 28"],["Share","32%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","2:27 PM–3:57 PM EST · 42 departures, aircraft known for 28"],["Tight turns","9 (32%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 7 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 3345 to TPA at 2:47 PM: aircraft N227WN, inbound WN 3483 from CMH (airborne), -1 min to turn"],["Tightest","G7 4560 to EWR at 3:11 PM: aircraft N545GJ, inbound G7 4499 from EWR (airborne), 11 min to turn"],["Tightest","OH 5546 to ROC at 2:43 PM: aircraft N719PS, inbound OH 5127 from MSP (airborne), 12 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1185 to MDW at 2:38 PM: aircraft N435WN, inbound WN 2112 from MDW (landed), 13 min to turn"],["Tightest","MQ 4053 to RSW at 3:03 PM: aircraft N328DS, inbound MQ 3991 from CLE (airborne), 20 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6647,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6639,"event_id":2893,"slug":"2893-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T18:57:24.645185Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 1:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T18:57:23.730368Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 1:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxODo1NzoyNC42NDUxODUrMDA6MDB8NjYzOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":134,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6639,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6616,"event_id":2879,"slug":"2879-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T14:55:43.978575Z","time":"9:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 14:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T14:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T14:55:42.800160Z","time":"9:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 14:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxNDo1NTo0My45Nzg1NzUrMDA6MDB8NjYxNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":116,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T14:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 9:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6616,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6554,"event_id":2846,"slug":"2846-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for National departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T03:56:34.628470Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 10:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T03:56:33.731449Z","time":"10:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 10:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQwMzo1NjozNC42Mjg0NzArMDA6MDB8NjU1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":1.7,"target":"DCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":22.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":44,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T03:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 10:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6554,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQwMzo1NjozNC42Mjg0NzArMDA6MDB8NjU1NA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo1NTozNi42NTk5ODIrMDA6MDB8ODYyNg","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DCA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

National arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 28 arrivals that landed between 8:55 PM and 9:55 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:55 PM–9:55 PM ESTSample 28 flightsLate 54%Typical 28%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

National departures running late: 67% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 21 departures that took off between 6:05 PM and 7:05 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:05 PM–7:05 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 67%Typical 40%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n DCA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

National arrivals back near normal: 14% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 54% at worst → 14% now

\n \n

Of 21 arrivals that landed between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 5:53 PM–6:53 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 14%Typical 28%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

National: 9 of 24 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 44 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 4:56 PM and 6:26 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 24. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 4:56 PM–6:26 PM ESTTight turns 9 of 24Share 38%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for National departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 32%, near normal

\n

What changed: 47% → 32%; calm-weather level 28%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 32%Horizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 39 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

National departures back near normal: 14% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 73% at worst → 14% now

\n \n

Of 28 departures that took off between 1:28 PM and 2:28 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 1:28 PM–2:28 PM ESTSample 28 flightsLate 14%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DCA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

National arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 28 arrivals that landed between 9:36 PM and 10:36 PM EST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:36 PM–10:36 PM ESTSample 28 flightsLate 50%Typical 28%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 41%, near normal

\n

What changed: 44% → 41%; calm-weather level 34%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 41%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

National departures back near normal: 25% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 60% at worst → 25% now

\n \n

Of 20 departures that took off between 2:44 PM and 3:44 PM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 2:44 PM–3:44 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 25%Typical 34%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for National departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n DCA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

National arrival delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 65% → 56%

\n \n

Of 27 arrivals that landed between 10:10 PM and 11:10 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:10 PM–11:10 PM ESTSample 27 flightsLate 56%Typical 28%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Slow taxi-in\n DCA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

National arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 0% took 13+ min

\n

What changed: slow share 46% at worst → 0% now

\n \n

Of 27 aircraft that landed at National (DCA) between 7:59 PM and 8:59 PM EST and have reached the ramp, 0 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.4 minutes; the median was 3.8 minutes. Usually 4% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.

\n \n

Landed 7:59 PM–8:59 PM ESTSample 27 arrivalsSlow 0%Usually 4%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers National departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 60%

\n

What changed: 73% → 60% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

National departure delays worsen: 95% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 57% → 95%

\n \n

Of 19 departures that took off between 11:12 AM and 12:12 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:12 AM–12:12 PM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 95%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 70%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 70%

\n

What changed: 58% → 70% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 70%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 70%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 70%

\n

What changed: 57% → 70% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 135 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 70%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 69%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 69%

\n

What changed: 57% → 69% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 69%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

National: 9 of 26 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 40 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 10:36 AM and 12:06 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 26. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 10:36 AM–12:06 PM ESTTight turns 9 of 26Share 35%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Inbound aircraft\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

National: 9 of 28 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n \n \n

Of the 42 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 2:27 PM and 3:57 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

\n \n

Next 2:27 PM–3:57 PM ESTTight turns 9 of 28Share 32%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 4\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n DCA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 41% delay risk for National departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 41%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View DCA\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=DCA"}