{"items":[{"id":10964,"event_id":4688,"slug":"4688-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"National departures running late: 60% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 12:06 PM and 1:06 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:06:31.238004Z","time":"1:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:06:00Z","time":"1:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:06:30.321077Z","time":"1:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODowNjozMS4yMzgwMDQrMDA6MDB8MTA5NjQ","measurement":{"window":"12:06 PM–1:06 PM EST","n":15,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"60%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":29.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10964,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10918,"event_id":4474,"slug":"4474-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.650793Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42NTA3OTMrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.7,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10918,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10917,"event_id":4401,"slug":"4401-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 14 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.648304Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:10.580888Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42NDgzMDQrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.6,"target":"DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10917,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10808,"event_id":4474,"slug":"4474-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.240669Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4yNDA2NjkrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.8,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10918,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10918,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.650793Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10807,"event_id":4542,"slug":"4542-dca-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"48% → 57% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.235763Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4yMzU3NjMrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDc","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":8.8,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10807,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10806,"event_id":4473,"slug":"4473-dca-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 56% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.228597Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4yMjg1OTcrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDY","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":13.4,"target":"DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10806,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10685,"event_id":4474,"slug":"4474-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 22 → 7 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:36.189588Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi4xODk1ODgrMDA6MDB8MTA2ODU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.1,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10918,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10918,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.650793Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10684,"event_id":4401,"slug":"4401-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 11 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 30 → 11 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:36.170851Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi4xNzA4NTErMDA6MDB8MTA2ODQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.3,"target":"DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10917,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10917,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.648304Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10683,"event_id":4322,"slug":"4322-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 31 → 12 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:36.151963Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi4xNTE5NjMrMDA6MDB8MTA2ODM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.2,"target":"DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10683,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10506,"event_id":4474,"slug":"4474-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 22 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 18 → 22 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:07.831214Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:05.802777Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowNy44MzEyMTQrMDA6MDB8MTA1MDY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":22.2,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10918,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10918,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.650793Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10505,"event_id":4435,"slug":"4435-dca-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 56% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:07.791106Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:05.802777Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowNy43OTExMDYrMDA6MDB8MTA1MDU","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":30.1,"target":"DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10505,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10375,"event_id":4474,"slug":"4474-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 18 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.076441Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wNzY0NDErMDA6MDB8MTAzNzU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":18.3,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10918,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10918,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.650793Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10374,"event_id":4267,"slug":"4267-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 63 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 24 → 27 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.072895Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wNzI4OTUrMDA6MDB8MTAzNzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":27.2,"target":"DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":10374,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10373,"event_id":4542,"slug":"4542-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.069459Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wNjk0NTkrMDA6MDB8MTAzNzM","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":18.3,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":48,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10807,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10807,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 57%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.235763Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10372,"event_id":4541,"slug":"4541-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from National 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.065911Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wNjU5MTErMDA6MDB8MTAzNzI","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":27.2,"target":"DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10372,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10224,"event_id":4474,"slug":"4474-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 47 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.323694Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4zMjM2OTQrMDA6MDB8MTAyMjQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.0,"target":"DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":47,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10918,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10918,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.650793Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10223,"event_id":4267,"slug":"4267-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 26 → 24 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.320859Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4zMjA4NTkrMDA6MDB8MTAyMjM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":24.0,"target":"DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":10374,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10374,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.072895Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"}}},{"id":10222,"event_id":4473,"slug":"4473-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for National departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.317256Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4zMTcyNTYrMDA6MDB8MTAyMjI","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":29.3,"target":"DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10806,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10806,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 56%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.228597Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10129,"event_id":4401,"slug":"4401-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 19 → 30 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.362752Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4zNjI3NTIrMDA6MDB8MTAxMjk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":30.2,"target":"DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10917,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10917,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.648304Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10128,"event_id":4322,"slug":"4322-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 31 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 31 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (45%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 33 → 31 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.359501Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4zNTk1MDErMDA6MDB8MTAxMjg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":30.8,"target":"DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10683,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10683,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:36.151963Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10127,"event_id":4267,"slug":"4267-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 26 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 28 → 26 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.356710Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4zNTY3MTArMDA6MDB8MTAxMjc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":26.3,"target":"DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":10374,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10374,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.072895Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"}}},{"id":10126,"event_id":4435,"slug":"4435-dca-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:05.351662Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4zNTE2NjIrMDA6MDB8MTAxMjY","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":30.2,"target":"DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10505,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10505,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 56%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:07.791106Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"}}},{"id":10030,"event_id":4401,"slug":"4401-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 19 cancellations among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.913210Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45MTMyMTArMDA6MDB8MTAwMzA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":19.0,"target":"DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10917,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10917,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T17:56:11.648304Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10029,"event_id":4322,"slug":"4322-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 33 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (49%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 33 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.909802Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45MDk4MDIrMDA6MDB8MTAwMjk","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":33.0,"target":"DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10683,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10683,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:36.151963Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"}}},{"id":10028,"event_id":4267,"slug":"4267-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 28 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.906446Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45MDY0NDYrMDA6MDB8MTAwMjg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":28.4,"target":"DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":64,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":10374,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10374,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.072895Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45MDY0NDYrMDA6MDB8MTAwMjg","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODowNjozMS4yMzgwMDQrMDA6MDB8MTA5NjQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10964\" data-event=\"4688\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODowNjozMS4yMzgwMDQrMDA6MDB8MTA5NjQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10964\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T18:06:31.238004Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 18:06 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 1:06 PM EST\">1:06 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T18:06:31.238004Z\">23 min ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-observed\" title=\"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-eye\"/></svg>Observed</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">New</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10964\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4688-dca-delays#u-10964\">National departures running late: 60% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Of 15 departures that took off between 12:06 PM and 1:06 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Window <b>12:06 PM–1:06 PM EST</b></span><span>Sample <b>15 flights</b></span><span>Late <b>60%</b></span><span>Typical <b>24%</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4688-dca-delays#u-10964\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4688\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4688-dca-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10918\" data-event=\"4474\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42NTA3OTMrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10918\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.650793Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST\">12:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.650793Z\">33 min ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10918\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10918\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 9 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~11 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10918\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (6)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4474\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10917\" data-event=\"4401\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNzo1NjoxMS42NDgzMDQrMDA6MDB8MTA5MTc\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10917\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.648304Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 17:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 12:56 PM EST\">12:56 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T17:56:11.648304Z\">33 min ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10917\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10917\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 11 → 14 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~14 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>2.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10917\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4401\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10808\" data-event=\"4474\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4yNDA2NjkrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10808\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.240669Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST\">11:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.240669Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10808\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10808\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~9 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10808\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (6)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4474\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10807\" data-event=\"4542\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4yMzU3NjMrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDc\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10807\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.235763Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST\">11:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.235763Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 57%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10807\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4542-dca-delays#u-10807\">Updated model puts National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 57%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 48% → 57% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>57%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4542-dca-delays#u-10807\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4542\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4542-dca-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10806\" data-event=\"4473\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4yMjg1OTcrMDA6MDB8MTA4MDY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10806\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.228597Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST\">11:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T16:56:28.228597Z\">1 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 56%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10806\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4473-dca-delays#u-10806\">Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 56%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 49% → 56% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>56%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4473-dca-delays#u-10806\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4473\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4473-dca-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10685\" data-event=\"4474\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi4xODk1ODgrMDA6MDB8MTA2ODU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10685\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T15:56:36.189588Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST\">10:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T15:56:36.189588Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10685\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10685\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 22 → 7 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~7 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>7.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10685\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (6)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4474\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10684\" data-event=\"4401\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi4xNzA4NTErMDA6MDB8MTA2ODQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10684\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T15:56:36.170851Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST\">10:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T15:56:36.170851Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10684\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10684\">Updated model now expects about 11 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 30 → 11 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~11 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>4.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10684\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4401\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10683\" data-event=\"4322\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNi4xNTE5NjMrMDA6MDB8MTA2ODM\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10683\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T15:56:36.151963Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST\">10:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T15:56:36.151963Z\">2 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10683\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4322-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10683\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 31 → 12 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~12 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>1.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4322-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10683\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4322\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4322-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10506\" data-event=\"4474\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowNy44MzEyMTQrMDA6MDB8MTA1MDY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10506\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T14:26:07.831214Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST\">9:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T14:26:07.831214Z\">4 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10506\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10506\">Updated model now expects about 22 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 18 → 22 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~22 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>8.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10506\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (6)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4474\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10505\" data-event=\"4435\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowNy43OTExMDYrMDA6MDB8MTA1MDU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10505\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T14:26:07.791106Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST\">9:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T14:26:07.791106Z\">4 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 56%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10505\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4435-dca-delays#u-10505\">Updated model puts National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 56%</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> 42% → 56% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>56%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4435-dca-delays#u-10505\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4435\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4435-dca-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10375\" data-event=\"4474\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wNzY0NDErMDA6MDB8MTAzNzU\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10375\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.076441Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST\">8:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.076441Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10375\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10375\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 6 → 18 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~18 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10375\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (6)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4474\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10374\" data-event=\"4267\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wNzI4OTUrMDA6MDB8MTAzNzQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10374\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.072895Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST\">8:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.072895Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10374\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10374\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 24 → 27 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 63 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~27 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10374\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (9)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4267\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10373\" data-event=\"4542\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wNjk0NTkrMDA6MDB8MTAzNzM\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10373\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.069459Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST\">8:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.069459Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 48%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10373\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4542-dca-delays#u-10373\">Model forecasts 48% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>48%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4542-dca-delays#u-10373\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4542\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4542-dca-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10372\" data-event=\"4541\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4wNjU5MTErMDA6MDB8MTAzNzI\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10372\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.065911Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST\">8:26 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T13:26:10.065911Z\">5 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 42%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10372\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4541-dca-delays#u-10372\">Model forecasts 42% delay risk for National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from National 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>42%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.6 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4541-dca-delays#u-10372\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4541\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4541-dca-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10224\" data-event=\"4474\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4zMjM2OTQrMDA6MDB8MTAyMjQ\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10224\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T11:57:34.323694Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST\">6:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T11:57:34.323694Z\">6 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10224\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10224\">Model expects about 6 cancellations among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 47 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~6 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>11.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10224\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (6)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4474\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4474-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10223\" data-event=\"4267\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4zMjA4NTkrMDA6MDB8MTAyMjM\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10223\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T11:57:34.320859Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST\">6:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T11:57:34.320859Z\">6 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10223\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10223\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 26 → 24 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~24 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>2.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10223\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (9)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4267\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10222\" data-event=\"4473\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4zMTcyNTYrMDA6MDB8MTAyMjI\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10222\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T11:57:34.317256Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM EST\">6:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T11:57:34.317256Z\">6 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 49%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10222\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4473-dca-delays#u-10222\">Model forecasts 49% delay risk for National departures noon–3 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>49%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4473-dca-delays#u-10222\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4473\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4473-dca-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10129\" data-event=\"4401\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4zNjI3NTIrMDA6MDB8MTAxMjk\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10129\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T10:56:05.362752Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST\">5:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T10:56:05.362752Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10129\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10129\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 19 → 30 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~30 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10129\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4401\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10128\" data-event=\"4322\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4zNTk1MDErMDA6MDB8MTAxMjg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10128\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T10:56:05.359501Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST\">5:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T10:56:05.359501Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10128\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4322-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10128\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 31 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 33 → 31 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 31 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (45%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~31 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>6.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4322-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10128\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4322\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4322-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10127\" data-event=\"4267\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4zNTY3MTArMDA6MDB8MTAxMjc\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10127\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T10:56:05.356710Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST\">5:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T10:56:05.356710Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">De-escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10127\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10127\">Model lowers expected cancellations to about 26 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 28 → 26 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~26 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>3.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10127\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (9)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4267\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"10126\" data-event=\"4435\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNS4zNTE2NjIrMDA6MDB8MTAxMjY\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10126\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T10:56:05.351662Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST\">5:56 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T10:56:05.351662Z\">7 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 42%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10126\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4435-dca-delays#u-10126\">Model forecasts 42% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>42%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>9.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4435-dca-delays#u-10126\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (2)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4435\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4435-dca-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10030\" data-event=\"4401\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45MTMyMTArMDA6MDB8MTAwMzA\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10030\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T09:58:30.913210Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST\">4:58 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T09:58:30.913210Z\">8 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">Developing</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10030\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10030\">Model expects about 19 cancellations among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~19 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>10.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10030\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (4)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4401\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4401-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10029\" data-event=\"4322\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45MDk4MDIrMDA6MDB8MTAwMjk\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10029\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T09:58:30.909802Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST\">4:58 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T09:58:30.909802Z\">8 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10029\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4322-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10029\">Updated model now expects about 33 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 5 → 33 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (49%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~33 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>7.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span><span><b>Model changed</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4322-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10029\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (5)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4322\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4322-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n","\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-major\" data-id=\"10028\" data-event=\"4267\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC45MDY0NDYrMDA6MDB8MTAwMjg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-10028\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-11-14T09:58:30.906446Z\" title=\"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC · Sat Nov 14, 4:58 AM EST\">4:58 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EST, Nov 14</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-11-14T09:58:30.906446Z\">8 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Major</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Escalation</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-10028\"><a href=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10028\">Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 4 → 28 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~28 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>4.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk#u-10028\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (9)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"4267\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/4267-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n"],"filters":"airport=DCA&mode=all"}