{"items":[{"id":147,"event_id":39,"slug":"39-dca-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 65 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 3 → 2","airports":["DCA"],"metros":["WAS"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-17T15:57:40.379566Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 17","ago":"27 days ago","full":"Sat Oct 17, 11:57 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-17 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-17T15:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 17","ago":"27 days ago","full":"Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-17 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-17T15:57:38.925923Z","time":"11:57 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 17","ago":"27 days ago","full":"Sat Oct 17, 11:57 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-17 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xN1QxNTo1Nzo0MC4zNzk1NjYrMDA6MDB8MTQ3","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-17T15:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 17","ago":"27 days ago","full":"Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-17 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":147,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xN1QxNTo1Nzo0MC4zNzk1NjYrMDA6MDB8MTQ3","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-info\" data-id=\"147\" data-event=\"39\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0xN1QxNTo1Nzo0MC4zNzk1NjYrMDA6MDB8MTQ3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-147\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-17T15:57:40.379566Z\" title=\"2026-10-17 15:57 UTC · Sat Oct 17, 11:57 AM EDT\">11:57 AM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EDT, Oct 17</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-17T15:57:40.379566Z\">27 days ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Informational</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      <span class=\"wi-kind\">Resolution</span>\n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Cancellation</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/DCA\">DCA</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-147\"><a href=\"/wire/events/39-dca-cancellation-risk#u-147\">Model lowers expected cancellations among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 2</a></h3>\n    <p class=\"wi-changed\"><b>What changed:</b> about 3 → 2</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 65 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Expected <b>~2 cancellations</b></span><span>Horizon <b>0.0 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/39-dca-cancellation-risk#u-147\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (3)</a>\n      <a class=\"wi-more\" href=\"/wire/events/39-dca-cancellation-risk\">2 earlier matching updates</a>\n      <a href=\"/airport/DCA\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View DCA</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"39\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/39-dca-cancellation-risk\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=DCA"}