{"items":[{"id":30,"event_id":12,"slug":"12-ewr-ground-stop","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA extends Newark ground stop to 8:30 PM EDT","body":"The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for Newark (EWR), citing “STAFFING”. Flights to EWR are held at their departure airports until 8:30 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.","what_changed":"end 8:15 PM EDT → 8:30 PM EDT; reason now “STAFFING”","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:36:05.043276Z","time":"7:36 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:36 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:36 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T22:52:00Z","time":"6:52 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"47 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 6:52 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 22:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:36:05.019737Z","time":"7:36 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:36 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:36 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzozNjowNS4wNDMyNzYrMDA6MDB8MzA","lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":30,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":29,"event_id":7,"slug":"7-ewr-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 63%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 63% since the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:26:03.161755Z","time":"7:26 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:26 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T22:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 6:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:26:03.032358Z","time":"7:26 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:26 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoyNjowMy4xNjE3NTUrMDA6MDB8Mjk","forecast":{"p_pct":"63%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T22:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 6:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":29,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":28,"event_id":14,"slug":"14-ewr-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. 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The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":"range 46–60 → 61–75 min","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:26:03.079782Z","time":"7:26 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:26 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:24:44.535000Z","time":"7:24 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"15 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:24 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:24 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:26:03.032358Z","time":"7:26 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:26 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoyNjowMy4wNzk3ODIrMDA6MDB8Mjg","lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":28,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":15,"event_id":11,"slug":"11-ewr-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Newark","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:11 PM EDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:09 PM EDT.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:13:25.758819Z","time":"5:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:11:04.022000Z","time":"5:11 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:11 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:11 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:13:25.709047Z","time":"5:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMToxMzoyNS43NTg4MTkrMDA6MDB8MTU","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":15,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8,"event_id":8,"slug":"8-ewr-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA reports ground delay program for Newark arrivals, average delay 72 min","body":"The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to Newark (EWR), citing “other”; it gives an average delay of 72 min and a maximum of 137 min. Departures to EWR are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.","what_changed":null,"airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T20:03:10.275068Z","time":"4:03 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 4:03 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 20:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T21:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 5:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T20:03:10.234826Z","time":"4:03 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 4:03 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 20:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMDowMzoxMC4yNzUwNjgrMDA6MDB8OA","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6,"event_id":6,"slug":"6-ewr-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Ground stop\n EWR\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA extends Newark ground stop to 8:30 PM EDT

\n

What changed: end 8:15 PM EDT → 8:30 PM EDT; reason now “STAFFING”

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for Newark (EWR), citing “STAFFING”. Flights to EWR are held at their departure airports until 8:30 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 13 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 63%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 63%

\n

What changed: 54% → 63% since the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 63%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 13 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA now reports departure delays of 61–75 min at Newark

\n

What changed: range 46–60 → 61–75 min

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 61–75 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Newark

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:11 PM EDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:09 PM EDT.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n EWR\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports ground delay program for Newark arrivals, average delay 72 min

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to Newark (EWR), citing “other”; it gives an average delay of 72 min and a maximum of 137 min. Departures to EWR are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
"],"filters":"airport=EWR"}