{"items":[{"id":10660,"event_id":4395,"slug":"4395-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:35.797077Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:56:34.697523Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS43OTcwNzcrMDA6MDB8MTA2NjA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":67,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10660,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10483,"event_id":4422,"slug":"4422-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 81 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 8 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:07.472228Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:26:05.802777Z","time":"9:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 9:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDoyNjowNy40NzIyMjgrMDA6MDB8MTA0ODM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.4,"target":"EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":81,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10483,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10346,"event_id":4532,"slug":"4532-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:09.932256Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS45MzIyNTYrMDA6MDB8MTAzNDY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.8,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":91,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10346,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10101,"event_id":4262,"slug":"4262-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 11 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 92 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 11 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.889721Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC44ODk3MjErMDA6MDB8MTAxMDE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.3,"target":"EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":92,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10101,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10100,"event_id":4178,"slug":"4178-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 13 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 13 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.858029Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC44NTgwMjkrMDA6MDB8MTAxMDA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.7,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10100,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9543,"event_id":4035,"slug":"4035-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 34 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (73%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 16 → 25 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.506775Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC41MDY3NzUrMDA6MDB8OTU0Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":24.8,"target":"EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9543,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9298,"event_id":3911,"slug":"3911-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 61 among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 61 of the 113 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (54%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 15 → 61 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.142985Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4xNDI5ODUrMDA6MDB8OTI5OA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":61.1,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":113,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9298,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8976,"event_id":3787,"slug":"3787-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 6 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:39.887436Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:38.542413Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS44ODc0MzYrMDA6MDB8ODk3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.7,"target":"EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":89,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8976,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8975,"event_id":3864,"slug":"3864-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 73 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:39.884213Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:57:38.542413Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTo1NzozOS44ODQyMTMrMDA6MDB8ODk3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.8,"target":"EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":73,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":8975,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8893,"event_id":3808,"slug":"3808-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 100 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.337132Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4zMzcxMzIrMDA6MDB8ODg5Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.1,"target":"EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":100,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":8893,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":9,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8838,"event_id":3786,"slug":"3786-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:57:45.327664Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:57:44.821486Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMDo1Nzo0NS4zMjc2NjQrMDA6MDB8ODgzOA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.5,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8838,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8559,"event_id":3757,"slug":"3757-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 46 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.704399Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43MDQzOTkrMDA6MDB8ODU1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.4,"target":"EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":46,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8559,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8452,"event_id":3719,"slug":"3719-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 116 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.685380Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi42ODUzODArMDA6MDB8ODQ1Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.1,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":116,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8452,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8300,"event_id":3601,"slug":"3601-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 114 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 3","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T14:27:02.945315Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T14:27:01.380700Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNDoyNzowMi45NDUzMTUrMDA6MDB8ODMwMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":114,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8300,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8276,"event_id":3580,"slug":"3580-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Thursday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 87 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 4 → 2","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:57:31.978233Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:57:31.564465Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxMDo1NzozMS45NzgyMzMrMDA6MDB8ODI3Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":1.7,"target":"EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":87,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8276,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8247,"event_id":3611,"slug":"3611-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures noon–3 PM Thursday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Thursday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 2","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T07:27:39.095322Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 07:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T07:27:38.458478Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 07:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwNzoyNzozOS4wOTUzMjIrMDA6MDB8ODI0Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8247,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7532,"event_id":3270,"slug":"3270-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 93 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 3","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:57:19.014382Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:57:16.358453Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxMTo1NzoxOS4wMTQzODIrMDA6MDB8NzUzMg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":93,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7532,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7381,"event_id":3217,"slug":"3217-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T02:26:54.095132Z","time":"9:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T02:26:53.008707Z","time":"9:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 02:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMjoyNjo1NC4wOTUxMzIrMDA6MDB8NzM4MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.5,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-07 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7381,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7210,"event_id":3171,"slug":"3171-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 112 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:39.641736Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:56:37.678010Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMTo1NjozOS42NDE3MzYrMDA6MDB8NzIxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.6,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":112,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7210,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6926,"event_id":2975,"slug":"2975-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 109 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 3","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:27:43.309123Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:27:42.491374Z","time":"9:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNDoyNzo0My4zMDkxMjMrMDA6MDB8NjkyNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.6,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":109,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T13:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6926,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6867,"event_id":2961,"slug":"2961-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 96 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 2","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T10:56:46.286931Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T10:56:44.037817Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxMDo1Njo0Ni4yODY5MzErMDA6MDB8Njg2Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":96,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6867,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6599,"event_id":2859,"slug":"2859-ewr-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 2","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 2","airports":["EWR"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T13:25:57.426840Z","time":"8:25 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:25 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 13:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T13:25:55.871472Z","time":"8:25 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:25 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 13:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxMzoyNTo1Ny40MjY4NDArMDA6MDB8NjU5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6599,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNTo1NjozNS43OTcwNzcrMDA6MDB8MTA2NjA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 13 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 8 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 81 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 11 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 11 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 92 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 13 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 13 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 16 → 25 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 34 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (73%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~25 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 61 among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 15 → 61 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 61 of the 113 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (54%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~61 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 6 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 24 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 73 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 26 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 100 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (9)\n 8 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 29 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 38 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 46 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 42 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 116 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 4 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 114 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Thursday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 4 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 87 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures noon–3 PM Thursday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 5 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Thursday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Saturday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 5 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 93 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 6 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 112 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 7 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 109 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 6 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 96 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 9 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n EWR\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 2

\n

What changed: about 7 → 2

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View EWR\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=EWR"}