{"items":[{"id":8822,"event_id":3889,"slug":"3889-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.097701Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"54 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"55 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wOTc3MDErMDA6MDB8ODgyMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":55,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8822,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8821,"event_id":3888,"slug":"3888-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.054051Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"54 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"55 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wNTQwNTErMDA6MDB8ODgyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":1.6,"target":"FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8821,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8820,"event_id":3887,"slug":"3887-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.007612Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"54 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"55 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wMDc2MTIrMDA6MDB8ODgyMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":73,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8820,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8696,"event_id":3745,"slug":"3745-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 64% → 46%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.977443Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:00Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.356312Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDozMzozMC45Nzc0NDMrMDA6MDB8ODY5Ng","measurement":{"window":"10:33 PM–11:33 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":12.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8696,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8685,"event_id":3745,"slug":"3745-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 64% late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:13 PM and 11:13 PM EST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 54% → 64%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:13:08.520384Z","time":"11:13 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:13 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:13:00Z","time":"11:13 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:13 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:13 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:13:07.943651Z","time":"11:13 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:13 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDoxMzowOC41MjAzODQrMDA6MDB8ODY4NQ","measurement":{"window":"10:13 PM–11:13 PM EST","n":14,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"64%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":30.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8696,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8696,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.977443Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"}}},{"id":8654,"event_id":3745,"slug":"3745-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 78% → 54%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:40:28.969427Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:40:00Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T03:40:28.275006Z","time":"10:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 03:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMzo0MDoyOC45Njk0MjcrMDA6MDB8ODY1NA","measurement":{"window":"9:40 PM–10:40 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"54%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":30.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8696,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8696,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.977443Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"}}},{"id":8616,"event_id":3646,"slug":"3646-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 8:37 PM and 9:37 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 78% → 45%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:37:16.270033Z","time":"9:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:37 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:37:00Z","time":"9:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:37 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:37:15.548005Z","time":"9:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:37 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjozNzoxNi4yNzAwMzMrMDA6MDB8ODYxNg","measurement":{"window":"8:37 PM–9:37 PM EST","n":20,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"45%","baseline_pct":"52%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":9.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8616,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8582,"event_id":3745,"slug":"3745-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 78% late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 arrivals that landed between 7:40 PM and 8:40 PM EST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 56% → 78%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:40:03.725968Z","time":"8:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:40 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:40:00Z","time":"8:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:40 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:40:02.885598Z","time":"8:40 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:40 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:40 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMTo0MDowMy43MjU5NjgrMDA6MDB8ODU4Mg","measurement":{"window":"7:40 PM–8:40 PM EST","n":18,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"78%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":51.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8696,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8696,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.977443Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"}}},{"id":8576,"event_id":3646,"slug":"3646-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays worsen: 78% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 7:31 PM and 8:31 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 67% → 78%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:31:47.501965Z","time":"8:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:31:00Z","time":"8:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:31:46.846622Z","time":"8:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMTozMTo0Ny41MDE5NjUrMDA6MDB8ODU3Ng","measurement":{"window":"7:31 PM–8:31 PM EST","n":23,"late_n":18,"share_pct":"78%","baseline_pct":"41%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":44.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8616,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8616,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:37:16.270033Z","time":"9:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:37 UTC"}}},{"id":8566,"event_id":3789,"slug":"3789-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.753358Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43NTMzNTgrMDA6MDB8ODU2Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"68%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"FLL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8566,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8496,"event_id":3745,"slug":"3745-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 56% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 arrivals that landed between 5:06 PM and 6:06 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:06:02.117139Z","time":"6:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:06 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:06:00Z","time":"6:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:06 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:06:01.409292Z","time":"6:06 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:06 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:06 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzowNjowMi4xMTcxMzkrMDA6MDB8ODQ5Ng","measurement":{"window":"5:06 PM–6:06 PM EST","n":18,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"56%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":21.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8696,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8696,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.977443Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"}}},{"id":8457,"event_id":3645,"slug":"3645-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.752653Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43NTI2NTMrMDA6MDB8ODQ1Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":75,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8457,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8440,"event_id":3646,"slug":"3646-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 67% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 21 departures that took off between 3:39 PM and 4:39 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 67% → 67%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:39:52.925907Z","time":"4:39 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:39 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:39 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:39:00Z","time":"4:39 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:39 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:39 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:39:52.307369Z","time":"4:39 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:39 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:39 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTozOTo1Mi45MjU5MDcrMDA6MDB8ODQ0MA","measurement":{"window":"3:39 PM–4:39 PM EST","n":21,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"67%","baseline_pct":"40%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":44.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8616,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8616,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:37:16.270033Z","time":"9:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:37 UTC"}}},{"id":8405,"event_id":3645,"slug":"3645-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"64% → 67% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.438266Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS40MzgyNjYrMDA6MDB8ODQwNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":75,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8457,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8457,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.752653Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8363,"event_id":3645,"slug":"3645-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 64%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"64% → 64% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:45.565138Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:44.534616Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1NTo0NS41NjUxMzgrMDA6MDB8ODM2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":75,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8457,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8457,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.752653Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8362,"event_id":3628,"slug":"3628-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:45.562006Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:44.534616Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1NTo0NS41NjIwMDYrMDA6MDB8ODM2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8362,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8353,"event_id":3647,"slug":"3647-fll-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 65% at worst → 24% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:53:41.835158Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:53:00Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:53:40.851105Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1Mzo0MS44MzUxNTgrMDA6MDB8ODM1Mw","measurement":{"window":"12:53 PM–1:53 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8353,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8344,"event_id":3646,"slug":"3646-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 departures that took off between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 59% → 67%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:02:25.464285Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:02:00Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:02:24.717456Z","time":"1:02 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:02 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODowMjoyNS40NjQyODUrMDA6MDB8ODM0NA","measurement":{"window":"12:02 PM–1:02 PM EST","n":18,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"67%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":25.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8616,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8616,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:37:16.270033Z","time":"9:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:37 UTC"}}},{"id":8336,"event_id":3645,"slug":"3645-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 64%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 64% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:12.759363Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:11.284165Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNzo1NjoxMi43NTkzNjMrMDA6MDB8ODMzNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":74,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8457,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8457,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.752653Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8335,"event_id":3628,"slug":"3628-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 57%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 57% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:12.720292Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:56:11.284165Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNzo1NjoxMi43MjAyOTIrMDA6MDB8ODMzNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"57%","expected_cancellations":1.0,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8362,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8362,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:45.562006Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"}}},{"id":8326,"event_id":3646,"slug":"3646-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 59% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 11:41 AM and 12:41 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 67% → 59%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:41:37.629017Z","time":"12:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:41:00Z","time":"12:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T17:41:36.815123Z","time":"12:41 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 12:41 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 17:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNzo0MTozNy42MjkwMTcrMDA6MDB8ODMyNg","measurement":{"window":"11:41 AM–12:41 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"59%","baseline_pct":"31%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":26.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8616,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8616,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:37:16.270033Z","time":"9:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:37 UTC"}}},{"id":8322,"event_id":3647,"slug":"3647-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 58% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 31 arrivals that landed between 10:46 AM and 11:46 AM EST, 18 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T16:46:04.272036Z","time":"11:46 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:46 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 16:46 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T16:46:00Z","time":"11:46 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:46 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 16:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T16:46:03.674111Z","time":"11:46 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:46 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 16:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNjo0NjowNC4yNzIwMzYrMDA6MDB8ODMyMg","measurement":{"window":"10:46 AM–11:46 AM EST","n":31,"late_n":18,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":16.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8353,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8353,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:53:41.835158Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:53 UTC"}}},{"id":8321,"event_id":3646,"slug":"3646-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 departures that took off between 10:31 AM and 11:31 AM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 58% → 67%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T16:31:40.772349Z","time":"11:31 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:31 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 16:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T16:31:00Z","time":"11:31 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:31 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 16:31 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T16:31:40.146488Z","time":"11:31 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:31 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 16:31 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNjozMTo0MC43NzIzNDkrMDA6MDB8ODMyMQ","measurement":{"window":"10:31 AM–11:31 AM EST","n":18,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"67%","baseline_pct":"24%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":28.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8616,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8616,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:37:16.270033Z","time":"9:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:37 UTC"}}},{"id":8318,"event_id":3646,"slug":"3646-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 10:11 AM and 11:11 AM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T16:11:16.287382Z","time":"11:11 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:11 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 16:11 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T16:11:00Z","time":"11:11 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:11 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 16:11 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T16:11:15.456284Z","time":"11:11 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:11 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 16:11 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNjoxMToxNi4yODczODIrMDA6MDB8ODMxOA","measurement":{"window":"10:11 AM–11:11 AM EST","n":19,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":23.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8616,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8616,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:37:16.270033Z","time":"9:37 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 9:37 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:37 UTC"}}},{"id":8317,"event_id":3645,"slug":"3645-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:56:59.158582Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:56:58.053811Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNTo1Njo1OS4xNTg1ODIrMDA6MDB8ODMxNw","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":1.8,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":74,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8457,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8457,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.752653Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNTo1Njo1OS4xNTg1ODIrMDA6MDB8ODMxNw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wOTc3MDErMDA6MDB8ODgyMg","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 54 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 45%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 45%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 54 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 54 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 40%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 40%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 64% → 46%

\n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:33 PM–11:33 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 64% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 54% → 64%

\n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:13 PM and 11:13 PM EST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:13 PM–11:13 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 64%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 78% → 54%

\n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 9:40 PM–10:40 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 78% → 45%

\n \n

Of 20 departures that took off between 8:37 PM and 9:37 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:37 PM–9:37 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 45%Typical 52%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 78% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 56% → 78%

\n \n

Of 18 arrivals that landed between 7:40 PM and 8:40 PM EST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:40 PM–8:40 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 78%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays worsen: 78% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 67% → 78%

\n \n

Of 23 departures that took off between 7:31 PM and 8:31 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:31 PM–8:31 PM ESTSample 23 flightsLate 78%Typical 41%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 68%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 68%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 56% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 18 arrivals that landed between 5:06 PM and 6:06 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 5:06 PM–6:06 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 56%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 67%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

\n

What changed: 67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 67%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 67% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 67% → 67%

\n \n

Of 21 departures that took off between 3:39 PM and 4:39 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 3:39 PM–4:39 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 67%Typical 40%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 67%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

\n

What changed: 64% → 67% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 67%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 64%

\n

What changed: 64% → 64% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%

\n

What changed: 57% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 56%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 65% at worst → 24% now

\n \n

Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 12:53 PM–1:53 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 59% → 67%

\n \n

Of 18 departures that took off between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 12:02 PM–1:02 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 67%Typical 31%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 64%

\n

What changed: 55% → 64% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 57%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 57%

\n

What changed: 43% → 57% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 57%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 59% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 67% → 59%

\n \n

Of 17 departures that took off between 11:41 AM and 12:41 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:41 AM–12:41 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 59%Typical 31%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 58% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 31 arrivals that landed between 10:46 AM and 11:46 AM EST, 18 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:46 AM–11:46 AM ESTSample 31 flightsLate 58%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 58% → 67%

\n \n

Of 18 departures that took off between 10:31 AM and 11:31 AM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:31 AM–11:31 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 67%Typical 24%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 19 departures that took off between 10:11 AM and 11:11 AM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:11 AM–11:11 AM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 58%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 18 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=FLL&mode=all"}