{"items":[{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9158,"event_id":2768,"slug":"2768-fll-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Fort Lauderdale","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Fort Lauderdale (FLL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:52 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 9:08 PM EST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.868248Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:53.519000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNS44NjgyNDgrMDA6MDB8OTE1OA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9158,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9045,"event_id":3913,"slug":"3913-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 64%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 64% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.612601Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:14.641613Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo1NjoxNS42MTI2MDErMDA6MDB8OTA0NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":76,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9045,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9044,"event_id":3889,"slug":"3889-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 59% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.608563Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:14.641613Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNzo1NjoxNS42MDg1NjMrMDA6MDB8OTA0NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":2.0,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9044,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8989,"event_id":3950,"slug":"3950-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departures running late: 46% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 24 departures that took off between 10:26 AM and 11:26 AM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:26:13.320638Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:26:00Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:26:12.633663Z","time":"11:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNjoyNjoxMy4zMjA2MzgrMDA6MDB8ODk4OQ","measurement":{"window":"10:26 AM–11:26 AM EST","n":24,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8989,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8902,"event_id":3913,"slug":"3913-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.397187Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4zOTcxODcrMDA6MDB8ODkwMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"53%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":76,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9045,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9045,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 64%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.612601Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8822,"event_id":3889,"slug":"3889-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.097701Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wOTc3MDErMDA6MDB8ODgyMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"45%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":55,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9044,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9044,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 59%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T17:56:15.608563Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 17:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8821,"event_id":3888,"slug":"3888-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.054051Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wNTQwNTErMDA6MDB8ODgyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":1.6,"target":"FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8821,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8820,"event_id":3887,"slug":"3887-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:54.007612Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:58:50.141420Z","time":"4:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wMDc2MTIrMDA6MDB8ODgyMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":73,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8820,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8696,"event_id":3745,"slug":"3745-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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Fort Lauderdale typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). 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Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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Fort Lauderdale typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). 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Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). 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\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Fort Lauderdale

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 64%

\n ▲ 53% → 64% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 59%

\n ▲ 45% → 59% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Fort Lauderdale departures running late: 46% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 46% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n 53% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 45% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n 40% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n FLL\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 64% → 46%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n FLL\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 64% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 54% → 64%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n FLL\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 78% → 54%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 78% → 45%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n FLL\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 78% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 56% → 78%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays worsen: 78% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 67% → 78%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n 68% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n FLL\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 56% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 56% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

\n ▲ 67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 67% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 67% → 67%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

\n ▲ 64% → 67% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 64%

\n ▼ 64% → 64% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%

\n ▼ 57% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n FLL\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

\n late share 65% at worst → 24% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n FLL\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays worsen: 67% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 59% → 67%\n
\n \n
"],"filters":"airport=FLL&mode=all&view=terminal"}