{"items":[{"id":8696,"event_id":3745,"slug":"3745-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 64% → 46%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.977443Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:00Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:33:30.356312Z","time":"11:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDozMzozMC45Nzc0NDMrMDA6MDB8ODY5Ng","measurement":{"window":"10:33 PM–11:33 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":12.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8696,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8616,"event_id":3646,"slug":"3646-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 8:37 PM and 9:37 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:37.753358Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T01:27:36.436003Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43NTMzNTgrMDA6MDB8ODU2Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"68%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"FLL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":15,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8566,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8457,"event_id":3645,"slug":"3645-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.752653Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43NTI2NTMrMDA6MDB8ODQ1Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":75,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":8457,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8362,"event_id":3628,"slug":"3628-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:45.562006Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:44.534616Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1NTo0NS41NjIwMDYrMDA6MDB8ODM2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":56,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8362,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8353,"event_id":3647,"slug":"3647-fll-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 65% at worst → 24% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:53:41.835158Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:53:00Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:53:40.851105Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1Mzo0MS44MzUxNTgrMDA6MDB8ODM1Mw","measurement":{"window":"12:53 PM–1:53 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8353,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8316,"event_id":3644,"slug":"3644-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:56:59.152529Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:56:58.053811Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNTo1Njo1OS4xNTI1MjkrMDA6MDB8ODMxNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8316,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8194,"event_id":3575,"slug":"3575-fll-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 6:29 PM and 7:29 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 75% at worst → 18% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:29:37.634463Z","time":"7:29 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:29 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:29:00Z","time":"7:29 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:29 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:29 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:29:36.765799Z","time":"7:29 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:29 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMDoyOTozNy42MzQ0NjMrMDA6MDB8ODE5NA","measurement":{"window":"6:29 PM–7:29 PM EST","n":22,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"18%","baseline_pct":"40%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8194,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8039,"event_id":3521,"slug":"3521-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 52% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:15 PM and 12:15 AM EST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:15:19.604711Z","time":"12:15 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:15 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:15:00Z","time":"12:15 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:15 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:15:18.841874Z","time":"12:15 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:15 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNToxNToxOS42MDQ3MTErMDA6MDB8ODAzOQ","measurement":{"window":"11:15 PM–12:15 AM EST","n":21,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"52%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":21.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8039,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7829,"event_id":3421,"slug":"3421-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:56 PM and 12:56 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 53% → 77%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T05:56:06.894169Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T05:56:00Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 05:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T05:56:06.243909Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNTo1NjowNi44OTQxNjkrMDA6MDB8NzgyOQ","measurement":{"window":"11:56 PM–12:56 AM EST","n":13,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"77%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":54.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7829,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7679,"event_id":3339,"slug":"3339-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departures running late: 55% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 29 departures that took off between 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 46%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 46%; calm-weather level 43%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:58:00.777167Z","time":"5:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:57:58.588475Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMjo1ODowMC43NzcxNjcrMDA6MDB8NzYyNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7626,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7619,"event_id":3301,"slug":"3301-fll-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 4:01 PM and 5:01 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 67% at worst → 23% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:01:23.433402Z","time":"5:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:01 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:01:00Z","time":"5:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:01 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:01:21.854964Z","time":"5:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:01 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMjowMToyMy40MzM0MDIrMDA6MDB8NzYxOQ","measurement":{"window":"4:01 PM–5:01 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"23%","baseline_pct":"40%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7619,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7575,"event_id":3293,"slug":"3293-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 60% → 68%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:18:15.109249Z","time":"12:18 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:18 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:18:00Z","time":"12:18 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:18 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:18 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:18:14.604614Z","time":"12:18 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:18 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNToxODoxNS4xMDkyNDkrMDA6MDB8NzQ1NA","measurement":{"window":"11:18 PM–12:18 AM EST","n":19,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"68%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":36.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":7454,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7351,"event_id":3117,"slug":"3117-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"72% → 71% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:27:39.802938Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:27:38.742510Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMToyNzozOS44MDI5MzgrMDA6MDB8NzM1MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"71%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"FLL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":7351,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7260,"event_id":3098,"slug":"3098-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 60% at worst → 17% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:17:39.773594Z","time":"4:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:17 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:17:00Z","time":"4:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:17:39.129220Z","time":"4:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:17 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMToxNzozOS43NzM1OTQrMDA6MDB8NzE5MQ","measurement":{"window":"3:17 PM–4:17 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"17%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-7.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7191,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7190,"event_id":3065,"slug":"3065-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 60% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 61% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T18:56:42.820686Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 18:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T18:56:39.817794Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 18:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxODo1Njo0Mi44MjA2ODYrMDA6MDB8NzA5NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7094,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6565,"event_id":2852,"slug":"2852-fll-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Thursday to 25%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 25%; calm-weather level 24%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T06:57:03.554836Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T06:57:03.061914Z","time":"1:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 1:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQwNjo1NzowMy41NTQ4MzYrMDA6MDB8NjU2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"25%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":82,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6565,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6560,"event_id":2849,"slug":"2849-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:25 PM and 11:25 PM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T04:25:02.161975Z","time":"11:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 11:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 04:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T04:25:00Z","time":"11:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 11:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 04:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T04:25:01.272629Z","time":"11:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 11:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 04:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQwNDoyNTowMi4xNjE5NzUrMDA6MDB8NjU2MA","measurement":{"window":"10:25 PM–11:25 PM EST","n":14,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"57%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6560,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6450,"event_id":2793,"slug":"2793-fll-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 departures that took off between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 69% at worst → 24% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T16:00:18.044775Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 16:00 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T16:00:16.318813Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 16:00 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQxNjowMDoxOC4wNDQ3NzUrMDA6MDB8NjQ1MA","measurement":{"window":"10:00 AM–11:00 AM EST","n":21,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":6450,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6435,"event_id":2787,"slug":"2787-fll-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 41%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 41%; calm-weather level 35%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T14:56:57.316952Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 9:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T14:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 9:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T14:56:54.089884Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 9:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQxNDo1Njo1Ny4zMTY5NTIrMDA6MDB8NjQzNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":59,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-04T14:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 9:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":6435,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6434,"event_id":2780,"slug":"2780-fll-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 37%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"39% → 37%; calm-weather level 31%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-04T14:56:57.313739Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 9:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-04T14:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 9:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-04T14:56:54.089884Z","time":"9:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 9:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQxNDo1Njo1Ny4zMTM3MzkrMDA6MDB8NjQzNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"37%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":61,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-04T14:00:00Z","time":"9:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 4","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 4, 9:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-04 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":6434,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNFQxNDo1Njo1Ny4zMTM3MzkrMDA6MDB8NjQzNA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDozMzozMC45Nzc0NDMrMDA6MDB8ODY5Ng","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 64% → 46%

\n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:33 PM–11:33 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 78% → 45%

\n \n

Of 20 departures that took off between 8:37 PM and 9:37 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:37 PM–9:37 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 45%Typical 52%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 68%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 68%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 67%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

\n

What changed: 67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 67%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%

\n

What changed: 57% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 56%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 65% at worst → 24% now

\n \n

Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 12:53 PM–1:53 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 33 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 75% at worst → 18% now

\n \n

Of 22 departures that took off between 6:29 PM and 7:29 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 6:29 PM–7:29 PM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 18%Typical 40%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 52% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:15 PM and 12:15 AM EST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:15 PM–12:15 AM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 52%Typical 27%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 53% → 77%

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Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:56 PM and 12:56 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 11:56 PM–12:56 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 77%Typical 27%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Fort Lauderdale departures running late: 55% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 29 departures that took off between 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 12:30 PM–1:30 PM ESTSample 29 flightsLate 55%Typical 33%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 46%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 46%, near normal

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What changed: 57% → 46%; calm-weather level 43%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 46%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 67% at worst → 23% now

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Of 13 departures that took off between 4:01 PM and 5:01 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 4:01 PM–5:01 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 23%Typical 40%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 5 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Saturday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 49%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 68% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 60% → 68%

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Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:18 PM and 12:18 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 11:18 PM–12:18 AM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 68%Typical 27%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 71%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%

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What changed: 72% → 71% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 71%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 66%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 66%

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What changed: 71% → 66% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 66%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 17% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 60% at worst → 17% now

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Of 12 arrivals that landed between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 3:17 PM–4:17 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 17%Typical 27%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 60% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 79% → 60%

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Of 15 departures that took off between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 3:17 PM–4:17 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 60%Typical 37%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 61%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%

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What changed: 50% → 61% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 61%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 5\n 8 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 25%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Thursday to 25%, near normal

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What changed: 40% → 25%; calm-weather level 24%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 25%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 4\n 8 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n FLL\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:25 PM and 11:25 PM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 10:25 PM–11:25 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 27%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 4\n 8 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 69% at worst → 24% now

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Of 21 departures that took off between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 10:00 AM–11:00 AM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 24%Typical 21%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 4\n 8 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 41%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 41%, near normal

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What changed: 49% → 41%; calm-weather level 35%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n \n EST, Nov 4\n 8 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 37%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n FLL\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 37%, near normal

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What changed: 39% → 37%; calm-weather level 31%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 37%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View FLL\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=FLL"}