{"items":[{"id":8822,"event_id":3889,"slug":"3889-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Fort Lauderdale typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 65% at worst → 24% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:53:41.835158Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:53:00Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:53:40.851105Z","time":"1:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1Mzo0MS44MzUxNTgrMDA6MDB8ODM1Mw","measurement":{"window":"12:53 PM–1:53 PM EST","n":17,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8353,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8316,"event_id":3644,"slug":"3644-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:56:59.152529Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:56:58.053811Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNTo1Njo1OS4xNTI1MjkrMDA6MDB8ODMxNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8316,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8194,"event_id":3575,"slug":"3575-fll-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 6:29 PM and 7:29 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 75% at worst → 18% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:29:37.634463Z","time":"7:29 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:29 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:29:00Z","time":"7:29 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:29 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:29 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:29:36.765799Z","time":"7:29 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:29 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMDoyOTozNy42MzQ0NjMrMDA6MDB8ODE5NA","measurement":{"window":"6:29 PM–7:29 PM EST","n":22,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"18%","baseline_pct":"40%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8194,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8039,"event_id":3521,"slug":"3521-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 52% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:15 PM and 12:15 AM EST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:15:19.604711Z","time":"12:15 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:15 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:15 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:15:00Z","time":"12:15 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:15 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:15 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T05:15:18.841874Z","time":"12:15 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 12:15 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 05:15 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNToxNToxOS42MDQ3MTErMDA6MDB8ODAzOQ","measurement":{"window":"11:15 PM–12:15 AM EST","n":21,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"52%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":21.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8039,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7829,"event_id":3421,"slug":"3421-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:56 PM and 12:56 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 53% → 77%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T05:56:06.894169Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T05:56:00Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 05:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T05:56:06.243909Z","time":"12:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 12:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNTo1NjowNi44OTQxNjkrMDA6MDB8NzgyOQ","measurement":{"window":"11:56 PM–12:56 AM EST","n":13,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"77%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":54.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7829,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7765,"event_id":3370,"slug":"3370-fll-aircraft-turns","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Fort Lauderdale aircraft turns back near normal: 3 of 28 departures in the next 90 min are tight","body":"Of the 31 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale (FLL) between 8:27 PM and 9:57 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 3 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into FLL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.","what_changed":"tight share 35% at worst → 11% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:27:57.058455Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:27:00Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T01:27:53.973199Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMToyNzo1Ny4wNTg0NTUrMDA6MDB8Nzc2NQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","8:27 PM–9:57 PM EST"],["Tight turns","3 of 28"],["Share","11%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","8:27 PM–9:57 PM EST · 31 departures, aircraft known for 28"],["Tight turns","3 (11%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","0 not taken off · 1 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 1936 to BNA at 9:46 PM: aircraft N1802U, inbound WN 846 from BWI (airborne), 18 min to turn"],["Tightest","PD 506 to YYZ at 8:36 PM: aircraft CGKXH, inbound PD 505 from YYZ (landed), 21 min to turn"],["Tightest","G4 254 to AVL at 8:50 PM: aircraft N207NV, inbound G4 1871 from AVL (landed), 32 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7765,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7679,"event_id":3339,"slug":"3339-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departures running late: 55% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 29 departures that took off between 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T18:31:00.952328Z","time":"1:31 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:31 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 18:31 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T18:30:00Z","time":"1:30 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:30 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 18:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T18:30:59.804718Z","time":"1:30 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:30 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 18:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQxODozMTowMC45NTIzMjgrMDA6MDB8NzY3OQ","measurement":{"window":"12:30 PM–1:30 PM EST","n":29,"late_n":16,"share_pct":"55%","baseline_pct":"33%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":17.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7679,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7626,"event_id":3294,"slug":"3294-fll-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 46%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 46%; calm-weather level 43%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:58:00.777167Z","time":"5:58 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:58 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:57:58.588475Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMjo1ODowMC43NzcxNjcrMDA6MDB8NzYyNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":65,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7626,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7619,"event_id":3301,"slug":"3301-fll-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 4:01 PM and 5:01 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 67% at worst → 23% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:01:23.433402Z","time":"5:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:01 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:01:00Z","time":"5:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:01 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T22:01:21.854964Z","time":"5:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 5:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 22:01 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMjowMToyMy40MzM0MDIrMDA6MDB8NzYxOQ","measurement":{"window":"4:01 PM–5:01 PM EST","n":13,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"23%","baseline_pct":"40%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7619,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7575,"event_id":3293,"slug":"3293-fll-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T15:56:12.881219Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 15:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 15:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T15:56:11.538134Z","time":"10:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 15:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNTo1NjoxMi44ODEyMTkrMDA6MDB8NzU3NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":53,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T15:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 10:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 15:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7575,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7454,"event_id":3169,"slug":"3169-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 68% late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:18 PM and 12:18 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 60% → 68%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:18:15.109249Z","time":"12:18 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:18 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:18:00Z","time":"12:18 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:18 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:18 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:18:14.604614Z","time":"12:18 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:18 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNToxODoxNS4xMDkyNDkrMDA6MDB8NzQ1NA","measurement":{"window":"11:18 PM–12:18 AM EST","n":19,"late_n":13,"share_pct":"68%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":36.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":7454,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7351,"event_id":3117,"slug":"3117-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"72% → 71% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:27:39.802938Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T01:27:38.742510Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMToyNzozOS44MDI5MzgrMDA6MDB8NzM1MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"71%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"FLL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":7351,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7289,"event_id":3192,"slug":"3192-fll-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Fort Lauderdale: 9 of 29 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 39 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale (FLL) between 6:32 PM and 8:02 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 29. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into FLL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:33:00.249425Z","time":"6:33 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:33 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:32:00Z","time":"6:32 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:32 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:32 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T23:32:59.058372Z","time":"6:32 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:32 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 23:32 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMzozMzowMC4yNDk0MjUrMDA6MDB8NzI4OQ","measure":{"chips":[["Next","6:32 PM–8:02 PM EST"],["Tight turns","9 of 29"],["Share","31%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","6:32 PM–8:02 PM EST · 39 departures, aircraft known for 29"],["Tight turns","9 (31%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","B6 2626 to RDU at 7:25 PM: aircraft N657JB, inbound B6 1450 from STI (not departed), -38 min to turn"],["Tightest","B6 2702 to JFK at 6:36 PM: aircraft N2102J, inbound B6 2760 from SXM (airborne), -14 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1928 to HOU at 7:45 PM: aircraft N488WN, inbound WN 1928 from TPA (not departed), -8 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 1762 to BWI at 6:53 PM: aircraft N8667D, inbound WN 4546 from HOU (airborne), 3 min to turn"],["Tightest","B6 1196 to PVD at 6:35 PM: aircraft N648JB, inbound B6 1540 from CLO (landed), 12 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7289,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7260,"event_id":3098,"slug":"3098-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 66%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"71% → 66% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.815625Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44MTU2MjUrMDA6MDB8NzI2MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":90,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":7260,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7191,"event_id":3088,"slug":"3088-fll-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 17% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 60% at worst → 17% now","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:17:39.773594Z","time":"4:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:17 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:17:00Z","time":"4:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:17:39.129220Z","time":"4:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:17 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMToxNzozOS43NzM1OTQrMDA6MDB8NzE5MQ","measurement":{"window":"3:17 PM–4:17 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"17%","baseline_pct":"27%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-7.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7191,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7190,"event_id":3065,"slug":"3065-fll-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 60% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 79% → 60%","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:17:39.764381Z","time":"4:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:17 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:17:00Z","time":"4:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T21:17:39.129220Z","time":"4:17 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 21:17 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMToxNzozOS43NjQzODErMDA6MDB8NzE5MA","measurement":{"window":"3:17 PM–4:17 PM EST","n":15,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"60%","baseline_pct":"37%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":24.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7190,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7094,"event_id":3075,"slug":"3075-fll-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 61% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["FLL"],"metros":["SFL"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T18:56:42.820686Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 18:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T18:56:39.817794Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 18:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxODo1Njo0Mi44MjA2ODYrMDA6MDB8NzA5NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":0.6,"target":"FLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":63,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7094,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxODo1Njo0Mi44MjA2ODYrMDA6MDB8NzA5NA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wOTc3MDErMDA6MDB8ODgyMg","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8822\" data-event=\"3889\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wOTc3MDErMDA6MDB8ODgyMg\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"new\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8822\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3889-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8822\" data-expand=\"8822\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T09:58:54.097701Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST · 2026-11-13 09:58 UTC\">04:58</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">NEW</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8822\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3889-fll-delays#u-8822\" title=\"Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday\">Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">45% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8822\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8822\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3889-fll-delays#u-8822\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3889\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3889-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8821\" data-event=\"3888\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wNTQwNTErMDA6MDB8ODgyMQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"new\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8821\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3888-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8821\" data-expand=\"8821\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T09:58:54.054051Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST · 2026-11-13 09:58 UTC\">04:58</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">NEW</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8821\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3888-fll-delays#u-8821\" title=\"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday\">Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">44% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8821\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8821\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3888-fll-delays#u-8821\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3888\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3888-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8820\" data-event=\"3887\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwOTo1ODo1NC4wMDc2MTIrMDA6MDB8ODgyMA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"new\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8820\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3887-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8820\" data-expand=\"8820\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T09:58:54.007612Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 13, 4:58 AM EST · 2026-11-13 09:58 UTC\">04:58</time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">NEW</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8820\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3887-fll-delays#u-8820\" title=\"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday\">Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">40% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8820\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8820\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3887-fll-delays#u-8820\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3887\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3887-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8696\" data-event=\"3745\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDozMzozMC45Nzc0NDMrMDA6MDB8ODY5Ng\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"developing\" data-n=\"5\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8696\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3745-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8696\" data-expand=\"8696\" title=\"Show all 5 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">5</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 5 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T04:33:30.977443Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 11:33 PM EST · 2026-11-13 04:33 UTC\">23:33<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-developing\" title=\"The event's current status\">DEVELOPING</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8696\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3745-fll-delays#u-8696\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal\">Fort Lauderdale arrival delays ease: 46% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 64% → 46%\">▼ late share 64% → 46%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8696\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8696\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">5 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3745-fll-delays#u-8696\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3745\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3745-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8616\" data-event=\"3646\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjozNzoxNi4yNzAwMzMrMDA6MDB8ODYxNg\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"7\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8616\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3646-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8616\" data-expand=\"8616\" title=\"Show all 7 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">7</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 7 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T02:37:16.270033Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 9:37 PM EST · 2026-11-13 02:37 UTC\">21:37<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8616\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3646-fll-delays#u-8616\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal\">Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 45% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 78% → 45%\">▼ late share 78% → 45%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8616\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8616\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 20 departures that took off between 8:37 PM and 9:37 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">7 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3646-fll-delays#u-8616\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3646\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3646-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8566\" data-event=\"3789\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMToyNzozNy43NTMzNTgrMDA6MDB8ODU2Ng\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8566\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3789-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8566\" data-expand=\"8566\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-13T01:27:37.753358Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 8:27 PM EST · 2026-11-13 01:27 UTC\">20:27<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8566\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3789-fll-delays#u-8566\" title=\"Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday\">Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">68% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8566\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8566\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3789-fll-delays#u-8566\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3789\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3789-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8457\" data-event=\"3645\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43NTI2NTMrMDA6MDB8ODQ1Nw\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"5\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8457\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3645-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8457\" data-expand=\"8457\" title=\"Show all 5 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">5</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 5 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-12T21:56:16.752653Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 4:56 PM EST · 2026-11-12 21:56 UTC\">16:56<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8457\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3645-fll-delays#u-8457\" title=\"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%\">Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\">▲ 67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8457\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8457\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">5 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3645-fll-delays#u-8457\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3645\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3645-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8362\" data-event=\"3628\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1NTo0NS41NjIwMDYrMDA6MDB8ODM2Mg\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8362\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3628-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8362\" data-expand=\"8362\" title=\"Show all 3 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">3</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 3 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-12T18:55:45.562006Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST · 2026-11-12 18:55 UTC\">13:55<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8362\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3628-fll-delays#u-8362\" title=\"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%\">Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"57% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\">▼ 57% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8362\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8362\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3628-fll-delays#u-8362\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3628\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3628-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"8353\" data-event=\"3647\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1Mzo0MS44MzUxNTgrMDA6MDB8ODM1Mw\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8353\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3647-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8353\" data-expand=\"8353\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-12T18:53:41.835158Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 1:53 PM EST · 2026-11-12 18:53 UTC\">13:53<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8353\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3647-fll-delays#u-8353\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour\">Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 65% at worst → 24% now\">late share 65% at worst → 24% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8353\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8353\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3647-fll-delays#u-8353\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3647\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3647-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8316\" data-event=\"3644\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNTo1Njo1OS4xNTI1MjkrMDA6MDB8ODMxNg\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8316\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3644-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8316\" data-expand=\"8316\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-12T15:56:59.152529Z\" title=\"Thu Nov 12, 10:56 AM EST · 2026-11-12 15:56 UTC\">10:56<small>Nov 12</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8316\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3644-fll-delays#u-8316\" title=\"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Thursday\">Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Thursday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">43% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8316\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8316\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3644-fll-delays#u-8316\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3644\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3644-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"8194\" data-event=\"3575\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMDoyOTozNy42MzQ0NjMrMDA6MDB8ODE5NA\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8194\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3575-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8194\" data-expand=\"8194\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-12T00:29:37.634463Z\" title=\"Wed Nov 11, 7:29 PM EST · 2026-11-12 00:29 UTC\">19:29<small>Nov 11</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8194\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3575-fll-delays#u-8194\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour\">Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 18% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 75% at worst → 18% now\">late share 75% at worst → 18% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8194\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8194\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 22 departures that took off between 6:29 PM and 7:29 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3575-fll-delays#u-8194\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3575\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3575-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"8039\" data-event=\"3521\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwNToxNToxOS42MDQ3MTErMDA6MDB8ODAzOQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-8039\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3521-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-8039\" data-expand=\"8039\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-10T05:15:19.604711Z\" title=\"Tue Nov 10, 12:15 AM EST · 2026-11-10 05:15 UTC\">00:15<small>Nov 10</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-8039\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3521-fll-delays#u-8039\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 52% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour\">Fort Lauderdale arrivals running late: 52% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">52% late</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-8039\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"8039\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:15 PM and 12:15 AM EST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3521-fll-delays#u-8039\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3521\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3521-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-major\" data-id=\"7829\" data-event=\"3421\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwNTo1NjowNi44OTQxNjkrMDA6MDB8NzgyOQ\" data-sev=\"major\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7829\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3421-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7829\" data-expand=\"7829\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T05:56:06.894169Z\" title=\"Mon Nov 9, 12:56 AM EST · 2026-11-09 05:56 UTC\">00:56<small>Nov 9</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major wt-sev\" title=\"Major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Major</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7829\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3421-fll-delays#u-7829\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour\">Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 53% → 77%\">▲ late share 53% → 77%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7829\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7829\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:56 PM and 12:56 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3421-fll-delays#u-7829\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3421\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3421-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"7765\" data-event=\"3370\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMToyNzo1Ny4wNTg0NTUrMDA6MDB8Nzc2NQ\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7765\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3370-fll-aircraft-turns\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7765\" data-expand=\"7765\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-09T01:27:57.058455Z\" title=\"Sun Nov 8, 8:27 PM EST · 2026-11-09 01:27 UTC\">20:27<small>Nov 8</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Inbound aircraft\">INBOUND</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7765\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3370-fll-aircraft-turns#u-7765\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale aircraft turns back near normal: 3 of 28 departures in the next 90 min are tight\">Fort Lauderdale aircraft turns back near normal: 3 of 28 departures in the next 90 min are tight</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"tight share 35% at worst → 11% now\">tight share 35% at worst → 11% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7765\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7765\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of the 31 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale (FLL) between 8:27 PM and 9:57 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 3 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into FLL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3370-fll-aircraft-turns#u-7765\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3370\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3370-fll-aircraft-turns\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7679\" data-event=\"3339\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQxODozMTowMC45NTIzMjgrMDA6MDB8NzY3OQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7679\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3339-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7679\" data-expand=\"7679\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-08T18:31:00.952328Z\" title=\"Sun Nov 8, 1:31 PM EST · 2026-11-08 18:31 UTC\">13:31<small>Nov 8</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7679\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3339-fll-delays#u-7679\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale departures running late: 55% left 15+ min late in the last hour\">Fort Lauderdale departures running late: 55% left 15+ min late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">55% late</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7679\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7679\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 29 departures that took off between 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3339-fll-delays#u-7679\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3339\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3339-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"7626\" data-event=\"3294\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMjo1ODowMC43NzcxNjcrMDA6MDB8NzYyNg\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7626\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3294-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7626\" data-expand=\"7626\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-07T22:58:00.777167Z\" title=\"Sat Nov 7, 5:58 PM EST · 2026-11-07 22:58 UTC\">17:58<small>Nov 7</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7626\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3294-fll-delays#u-7626\" title=\"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 46%, near normal\">Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 46%, near normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"57% → 46%; calm-weather level 43%\">57% → 46%; calm-weather level 43%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7626\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7626\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3294-fll-delays#u-7626\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3294\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3294-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"7619\" data-event=\"3301\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QyMjowMToyMy40MzM0MDIrMDA6MDB8NzYxOQ\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7619\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3301-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7619\" data-expand=\"7619\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-07T22:01:23.433402Z\" title=\"Sat Nov 7, 5:01 PM EST · 2026-11-07 22:01 UTC\">17:01<small>Nov 7</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7619\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3301-fll-delays#u-7619\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour\">Fort Lauderdale departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 67% at worst → 23% now\">late share 67% at worst → 23% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7619\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7619\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 13 departures that took off between 4:01 PM and 5:01 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3301-fll-delays#u-7619\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3301\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3301-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7575\" data-event=\"3293\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNTo1NjoxMi44ODEyMTkrMDA6MDB8NzU3NQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7575\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3293-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7575\" data-expand=\"7575\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-07T15:56:12.881219Z\" title=\"Sat Nov 7, 10:56 AM EST · 2026-11-07 15:56 UTC\">10:56<small>Nov 7</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7575\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3293-fll-delays#u-7575\" title=\"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Saturday\">Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Saturday</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">49% risk</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7575\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7575\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3293-fll-delays#u-7575\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3293\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3293-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-major\" data-id=\"7454\" data-event=\"3169\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNToxODoxNS4xMDkyNDkrMDA6MDB8NzQ1NA\" data-sev=\"major\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"6\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7454\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3169-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7454\" data-expand=\"7454\" title=\"Show all 6 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">6</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 6 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-07T05:18:15.109249Z\" title=\"Sat Nov 7, 12:18 AM EST · 2026-11-07 05:18 UTC\">00:18<small>Nov 7</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-major wt-sev\" title=\"Major\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Major</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7454\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3169-fll-delays#u-7454\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 68% late in the last hour\">Fort Lauderdale arrival delays worsen: 68% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 60% → 68%\">▲ late share 60% → 68%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7454\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7454\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:18 PM and 12:18 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">6 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3169-fll-delays#u-7454\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3169\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3169-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7351\" data-event=\"3117\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMToyNzozOS44MDI5MzgrMDA6MDB8NzM1MQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"5\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7351\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3117-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7351\" data-expand=\"7351\" title=\"Show all 5 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">5</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 5 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-07T01:27:39.802938Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 6, 8:27 PM EST · 2026-11-07 01:27 UTC\">20:27<small>Nov 6</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7351\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3117-fll-delays#u-7351\" title=\"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%\">Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"72% → 71% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\">▼ 72% → 71% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7351\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7351\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">5 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3117-fll-delays#u-7351\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3117\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3117-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7289\" data-event=\"3192\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMzozMzowMC4yNDk0MjUrMDA6MDB8NzI4OQ\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"1\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7289\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3192-fll-aircraft-turns\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7289\" data-expand=\"7289\" title=\"Show details\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show details</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-06T23:33:00.249425Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 6, 6:33 PM EST · 2026-11-06 23:33 UTC\">18:33<small>Nov 6</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Inbound aircraft\">INBOUND</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7289\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3192-fll-aircraft-turns#u-7289\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale: 9 of 29 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn\">Fort Lauderdale: 9 of 29 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"\">Tight turns 9 of 29</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7289\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7289\"></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of the 39 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale (FLL) between 6:32 PM and 8:02 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 29. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into FLL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3192-fll-aircraft-turns#u-7289\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3192\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3192-fll-aircraft-turns\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7260\" data-event=\"3098\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44MTU2MjUrMDA6MDB8NzI2MA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"5\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7260\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3098-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7260\" data-expand=\"7260\" title=\"Show all 5 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">5</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 5 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-06T22:56:00.815625Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 6, 5:56 PM EST · 2026-11-06 22:56 UTC\">17:56<small>Nov 6</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7260\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3098-fll-delays#u-7260\" title=\"Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 66%\">Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 66%</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"71% → 66% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)\">▼ 71% → 66% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7260\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7260\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">5 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3098-fll-delays#u-7260\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3098\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3098-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-info\" data-id=\"7191\" data-event=\"3088\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMToxNzozOS43NzM1OTQrMDA6MDB8NzE5MQ\" data-sev=\"info\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7191\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3088-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7191\" data-expand=\"7191\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-06T21:17:39.773594Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST · 2026-11-06 21:17 UTC\">16:17<small>Nov 6</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-info wt-sev\" title=\"Informational\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Informational</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"arrivals\">ARR</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7191\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3088-fll-delays#u-7191\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 17% late in the last hour\">Fort Lauderdale arrivals back near normal: 17% late in the last hour</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 60% at worst → 17% now\">late share 60% at worst → 17% now</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7191\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7191\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 12 arrivals that landed between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3088-fll-delays#u-7191\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3088\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3088-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7190\" data-event=\"3065\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMToxNzozOS43NjQzODErMDA6MDB8NzE5MA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"3\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7190\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3065-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7190\" data-expand=\"7190\" title=\"Show all 3 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">3</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 3 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-06T21:17:39.764381Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 6, 4:17 PM EST · 2026-11-06 21:17 UTC\">16:17<small>Nov 6</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-observed\" title=\"Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">O</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Observed</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7190\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3065-fll-delays#u-7190\" title=\"Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 60% late in the last hour, still above normal\">Fort Lauderdale departure delays ease: 60% late in the last hour, still above normal</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"late share 79% → 60%\">▼ late share 79% → 60%</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7190\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7190\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Of 15 departures that took off between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3065-fll-delays#u-7190\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3065\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3065-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<article class=\"wi wt sev-significant\" data-id=\"7094\" data-event=\"3075\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxODo1Njo0Mi44MjA2ODYrMDA6MDB8NzA5NA\" data-sev=\"significant\" data-life=\"resolved\" data-n=\"2\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-7094\">\n  <div class=\"wt-row\">\n    <span class=\"wt-x\"><a class=\"wt-plus\" href=\"/wire/events/3075-fll-delays\" role=\"button\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"wt-more-7094\" data-expand=\"7094\" title=\"Show all 2 updates on this event\"><span class=\"wt-box\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+</span><span class=\"wt-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">2</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Show all 2 updates</span></a></span>\n    <span class=\"wt-meta\">\n      <time class=\"wt-t\" datetime=\"2026-11-06T18:56:42.820686Z\" title=\"Fri Nov 6, 1:56 PM EST · 2026-11-06 18:56 UTC\">13:56<small>Nov 6</small></time>\n      <span class=\"wt-ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Forecast: Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">F</span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Forecast</span></span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant wt-sev\" title=\"Significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span><span class=\"visually-hidden\">Significant</span></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-apt\"><a href=\"/airport/FLL\">FLL</a></span>\n      <span class=\"wt-dir\" title=\"departures\">DEP</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-type\" title=\"Delay\">DELAY</span>\n      <span class=\"wt-st wt-st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">RESOLVED</span>\n    </span>\n    <h3 class=\"wt-hl\" id=\"wi-h-7094\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3075-fll-delays#u-7094\" title=\"Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%\">Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%</a></h3>\n    <span class=\"wt-chg\" title=\"50% → 61% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)\">▲ 50% → 61% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wt-more\" id=\"wt-more-7094\" hidden>\n    \n    <div class=\"wt-hist-slot\" data-slot=\"7094\"><p class=\"wt-loading\">Loading earlier updates…</p></div>\n    <p class=\"wt-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    <div class=\"wt-acts\">\n      <span class=\"wt-src\">2 updates · Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3075-fll-delays#u-7094\" data-act=\"open\">Open event ›</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3075\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3075-fll-delays\">Copy link</button>\n      <a href=\"/airport/FLL\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View FLL</a>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>"],"filters":"airport=FLL&view=terminal"}