{"items":[{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9351,"event_id":4047,"slug":"4047-hou-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 82% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.523079Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC41MjMwNzkrMDA6MDB8OTM1MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"82%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":17,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9351,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9350,"event_id":4046,"slug":"4046-hou-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 83%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 83% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.519556Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC41MTk1NTYrMDA6MDB8OTM1MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"83%","expected_cancellations":1.2,"target":"HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9350,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9225,"event_id":4015,"slug":"4015-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 2:37 PM and 3:37 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 65% → 42%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:37:10.201546Z","time":"3:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:37 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:37:00Z","time":"3:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:37 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:37:00.787018Z","time":"3:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:37 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTozNzoxMC4yMDE1NDYrMDA6MDB8OTIyNQ","measurement":{"window":"2:37 PM–3:37 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"42%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":0.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9225,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9211,"event_id":4015,"slug":"4015-hou-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrival delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 2:16 PM and 3:16 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 45% → 65%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:16:29.869680Z","time":"3:16 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:16 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:16:00Z","time":"3:16 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:16 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:16:28.523826Z","time":"3:16 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:16 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMToxNjoyOS44Njk2ODArMDA6MDB8OTIxMQ","measurement":{"window":"2:16 PM–3:16 PM CST","n":17,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"65%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":26.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9225,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9225,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Hobby arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:37:10.201546Z","time":"3:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:37 UTC"}}},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9194,"event_id":4047,"slug":"4047-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 69% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.539438Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy41Mzk0MzgrMDA6MDB8OTE5NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"69%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":17,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9351,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9351,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.523079Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9193,"event_id":4046,"slug":"4046-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 69% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.536975Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy41MzY5NzUrMDA6MDB8OTE5Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"69%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9350,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9350,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 83%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.519556Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9192,"event_id":4045,"slug":"4045-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.533683Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy41MzM2ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"62%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9192,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9139,"event_id":4015,"slug":"4015-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals running late: 45% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 arrivals that landed between 1:50 PM and 2:50 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:50:06.436408Z","time":"2:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:50 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:50:00Z","time":"2:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:50 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:50:04.661634Z","time":"2:50 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:50 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1MDowNi40MzY0MDgrMDA6MDB8OTEzOQ","measurement":{"window":"1:50 PM–2:50 PM CST","n":20,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"45%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9225,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9225,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Hobby arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:37:10.201546Z","time":"3:37 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:37 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:37 UTC"}}},{"id":9104,"event_id":4002,"slug":"4002-hou-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Hobby: 11 of 24 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 26 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:44 PM and 3:14 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 24. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 5 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:44:28.448122Z","time":"1:44 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:44 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:44:00Z","time":"1:44 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:44 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:44 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:44:26.922606Z","time":"1:44 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:44 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxOTo0NDoyOC40NDgxMjIrMDA6MDB8OTEwNA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","1:44 PM–3:14 PM CST"],["Tight turns","11 of 24"],["Share","46%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","1:44 PM–3:14 PM CST · 26 departures, aircraft known for 24"],["Tight turns","11 (46%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","5 not taken off · 6 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 2127 to MCO at 1:51 PM: aircraft N240WN, inbound WN 2778 from MCO (airborne), -28 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2417 to BHM at 1:48 PM: aircraft N8549Z, inbound WN 3434 from PHX (airborne), -4 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2082 to DEN at 2:56 PM: aircraft N8866H, inbound WN 232 from ATL (airborne), 1 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2122 to MCI at 3:04 PM: aircraft N8993Q, inbound WN 4494 from SAT (not departed), 6 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2673 to RDU at 3:04 PM: aircraft N9014W, inbound WN 2685 from OKC (not departed), 11 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9104,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8724,"event_id":3735,"slug":"3735-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departure delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 80% → 54%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:22:26.261200Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:22 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:22:00Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:22 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:22:25.721414Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:22 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNToyMjoyNi4yNjEyMDArMDA6MDB8ODcyNA","measurement":{"window":"10:22 PM–11:22 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"54%","baseline_pct":"45%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8724,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8635,"event_id":3724,"slug":"3724-hou-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 75%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"62% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:57:39.490929Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:57:38.448228Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo1NzozOS40OTA5MjkrMDA6MDB8ODYzNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"75%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8635,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8622,"event_id":3813,"slug":"3813-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:47 PM and 8:47 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:47:27.479889Z","time":"8:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:47 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:47:00Z","time":"8:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:47 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:47:26.464270Z","time":"8:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:47 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo0NzoyNy40Nzk4ODkrMDA6MDB8ODYyMg","measurement":{"window":"7:47 PM–8:47 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"57%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8622,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8493,"event_id":3724,"slug":"3724-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 62%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"73% → 62% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:46.029768Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0Ni4wMjk3NjgrMDA6MDB8ODQ5Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"62%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8635,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8635,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 75%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:57:39.490929Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:57 UTC"}}},{"id":8477,"event_id":3735,"slug":"3735-hou-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departure delays worsen: 80% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 3:22 PM and 4:22 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 69% → 80%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:22:48.951601Z","time":"4:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:22 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:22:00Z","time":"4:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:22 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:22:48.130631Z","time":"4:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:22 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjoyMjo0OC45NTE2MDErMDA6MDB8ODQ3Nw","measurement":{"window":"3:22 PM–4:22 PM CST","n":15,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"80%","baseline_pct":"35%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":36.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8724,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8724,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Hobby departure delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:22:26.261200Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:22 UTC"}}},{"id":8471,"event_id":3735,"slug":"3735-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departures running late: 69% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 3:02 PM and 4:02 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:02:26.799546Z","time":"4:02 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:02 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:02 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:02:00Z","time":"4:02 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:02 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:02 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:02:26.082567Z","time":"4:02 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 4:02 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:02 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjowMjoyNi43OTk1NDYrMDA6MDB8ODQ3MQ","measurement":{"window":"3:02 PM–4:02 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"69%","baseline_pct":"35%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":27.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8724,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8724,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Hobby departure delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:22:26.261200Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:22 UTC"}}},{"id":8460,"event_id":3724,"slug":"3724-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 73% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.796871Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43OTY4NzErMDA6MDB8ODQ2MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"73%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8635,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8635,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 75%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:57:39.490929Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:57 UTC"}}},{"id":8459,"event_id":3723,"slug":"3723-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 73% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.792759Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43OTI3NTkrMDA6MDB8ODQ1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"73%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8459,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8384,"event_id":3684,"slug":"3684-hou-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Hobby: 9 of 25 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:46 PM and 3:16 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 25. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:47:01.453760Z","time":"1:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:47 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:46:00Z","time":"1:46 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:46 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:46:59.440694Z","time":"1:46 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"29 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:46 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxOTo0NzowMS40NTM3NjArMDA6MDB8ODM4NA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","1:46 PM–3:16 PM CST"],["Tight turns","9 of 25"],["Share","36%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","1:46 PM–3:16 PM CST · 27 departures, aircraft known for 25"],["Tight turns","9 (36%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 5 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 2122 to MCI at 3:05 PM: aircraft N8556Z, inbound WN 1948 from FLL (airborne), -6 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2673 to RDU at 3:05 PM: aircraft N8566Z, inbound WN 2685 from OKC (not departed), 4 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2417 to BHM at 1:49 PM: aircraft N1810U, inbound WN 1015 from BWI (landed), 5 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2060 to BNA at 2:48 PM: aircraft N8842L, inbound WN 4494 from SAT (not departed), 16 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2133 to MDW at 2:18 PM: aircraft N903WN, inbound WN 2769 from LBB (airborne), 16 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8384,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8128,"event_id":3555,"slug":"3555-hou-taxi-in","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"Hobby arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 36% took 14+ min after landing","body":"Of 11 aircraft that landed at Hobby (HOU) between 7:54 PM and 8:54 PM CST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4.4 minutes; the median was 9.6 minutes. Usually 2% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T03:09:08.111376Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 03:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:54:00Z","time":"8:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T03:09:06.641887Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 03:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMzowOTowOC4xMTEzNzYrMDA6MDB8ODEyOA","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","7:54 PM–8:54 PM CST"],["Sample","11 arrivals"],["Slow","36%"],["Usually","2%"]],"rows":[["Landings","7:54 PM–8:54 PM CST · 11 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","4 (36%) took 14+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","2% usually · typical taxi-in 4.4 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","9.6 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8128,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8123,"event_id":3552,"slug":"3552-hou-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 7:26 PM and 8:26 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 46% at worst → 24% now","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:26:11.370882Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:26:00Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:26:10.366716Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMjoyNjoxMS4zNzA4ODIrMDA6MDB8ODEyMw","measurement":{"window":"7:26 PM–8:26 PM CST","n":17,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8123,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8118,"event_id":3552,"slug":"3552-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 6:12 PM and 7:12 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T01:12:37.335535Z","time":"7:12 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:12 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 01:12 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T01:12:00Z","time":"7:12 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:12 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 01:12 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T01:12:36.515783Z","time":"7:12 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:12 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 01:12 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMToxMjozNy4zMzU1MzUrMDA6MDB8ODExOA","measurement":{"window":"6:12 PM–7:12 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":7.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8123,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8123,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Hobby arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:26:11.370882Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:26 UTC"}}},{"id":8108,"event_id":3547,"slug":"3547-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departures running late: 71% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 2:41 PM and 3:41 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T21:41:06.114925Z","time":"3:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 3:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 21:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T21:41:00Z","time":"3:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 3:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 21:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T21:41:04.539266Z","time":"3:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 3:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 21:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQyMTo0MTowNi4xMTQ5MjUrMDA6MDB8ODEwOA","measurement":{"window":"2:41 PM–3:41 PM CST","n":17,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"35%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":19.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8108,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQyMTo0MTowNi4xMTQ5MjUrMDA6MDB8ODEwOA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW · LATE\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%

\n ▲ 69% → 82% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 83%

\n ▲ 69% → 83% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n ARR\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Hobby arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 65% → 42%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n HOU\n ARR\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Hobby arrival delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 45% → 65%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model forecasts 69% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n 69% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 69% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n 69% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n 62% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n ARR\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Hobby arrivals running late: 45% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 45% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n INBOUND\n NEW\n \n

Hobby: 11 of 24 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 11 of 24\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby departure delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 80% → 54%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 75%

\n ▲ 62% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 57% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 62%

\n ▼ 73% → 62% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby departure delays worsen: 80% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 69% → 80%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby departures running late: 69% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 69% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 73% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n 73% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 73% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n 73% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n INBOUND\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby: 9 of 25 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 9 of 25\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n ARR\n TAXI-IN\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 36% took 14+ min after landing

\n Sample 11 arrivals\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n HOU\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

\n late share 46% at worst → 24% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 46% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby departures running late: 71% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 71% late\n
\n \n
"],"filters":"airport=HOU&mode=all&view=terminal"}