{"items":[{"id":8724,"event_id":3735,"slug":"3735-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departure delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 75%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:47:27.479889Z","time":"8:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:47 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:47:00Z","time":"8:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:47 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:47:26.464270Z","time":"8:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:47 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo0NzoyNy40Nzk4ODkrMDA6MDB8ODYyMg","measurement":{"window":"7:47 PM–8:47 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"57%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8622,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8459,"event_id":3723,"slug":"3723-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 73% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.792759Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43OTI3NTkrMDA6MDB8ODQ1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"73%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8459,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8123,"event_id":3552,"slug":"3552-hou-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 7:26 PM and 8:26 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 46% at worst → 24% now","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:26:11.370882Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:26:00Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:26:10.366716Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMjoyNjoxMS4zNzA4ODIrMDA6MDB8ODEyMw","measurement":{"window":"7:26 PM–8:26 PM CST","n":17,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8123,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8108,"event_id":3547,"slug":"3547-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departures running late: 71% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 2:41 PM and 3:41 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 32%; calm-weather level 26%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T11:27:18.207274Z","time":"5:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 5:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 11:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T11:27:15.925864Z","time":"5:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 5:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 11:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxMToyNzoxOC4yMDcyNzQrMDA6MDB8ODA4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"HOU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-10 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8083,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8015,"event_id":3491,"slug":"3491-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departure delays ease: 53% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 60% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:57:36.283014Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:57:34.051604Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMzo1NzozNi4yODMwMTQrMDA6MDB8Nzk3OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7979,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7967,"event_id":3460,"slug":"3460-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Monday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:07.081063Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:02.998232Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDoyODowNy4wODEwNjMrMDA6MDB8NzkyNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"53%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7926,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7862,"event_id":3430,"slug":"3430-hou-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 36%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Monday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 36%; calm-weather level 29%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T13:29:19.080977Z","time":"7:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 13:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T13:29:10.293491Z","time":"7:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 13:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxMzoyOToxOS4wODA5NzcrMDA6MDB8Nzg2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"36%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"HOU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":25,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7862,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7794,"event_id":3407,"slug":"3407-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals running late: 64% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). 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Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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Hobby typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 67%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"79% → 67% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.849844Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"4:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44NDk4NDQrMDA6MDB8NzI2Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7266,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7265,"event_id":3147,"slug":"3147-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 72%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"79% → 72% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.846951Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"4:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44NDY5NTErMDA6MDB8NzI2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"72%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7265,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7147,"event_id":3146,"slug":"3146-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 66% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:26:35.866549Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T20:26:32.829176Z","time":"2:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 2:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMDoyNjozNS44NjY1NDkrMDA6MDB8NzE0Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"66%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"HOU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":50,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7147,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6755,"event_id":2921,"slug":"2921-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 59%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 59% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T02:57:43.513158Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T02:57:41.572716Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwMjo1Nzo0My41MTMxNTgrMDA6MDB8Njc1NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6755,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6734,"event_id":2908,"slug":"2908-hou-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals back near normal: 21% late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:24 PM and 8:24 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 47% at worst → 21% now","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T02:24:51.250561Z","time":"8:24 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:24 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 02:24 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T02:24:00Z","time":"8:24 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:24 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 02:24 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T02:24:50.383509Z","time":"8:24 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 8:24 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 02:24 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwMjoyNDo1MS4yNTA1NjErMDA6MDB8NjczNA","measurement":{"window":"7:24 PM–8:24 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"21%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6734,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6667,"event_id":2913,"slug":"2913-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 2:56 PM and 3:56 PM CST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T21:56:41.381574Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T21:56:00Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 21:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T21:56:39.931341Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQyMTo1Njo0MS4zODE1NzQrMDA6MDB8NjY2Nw","measurement":{"window":"2:56 PM–3:56 PM CST","n":16,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"62%","baseline_pct":"35%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":24.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6667,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQyMTo1Njo0MS4zODE1NzQrMDA6MDB8NjY2Nw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNToyMjoyNi4yNjEyMDArMDA6MDB8ODcyNA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Hobby departure delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 80% → 54%

\n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:22 PM–11:22 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 45%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View HOU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 75%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 75%

\n

What changed: 62% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 75%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View HOU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n HOU\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Hobby arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:47 PM and 8:47 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:47 PM–8:47 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View HOU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 12\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 73%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 73% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 73%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View HOU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n HOU\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Hobby arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 46% at worst → 24% now

\n \n

Of 17 arrivals that landed between 7:26 PM and 8:26 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

\n \n

Window 7:26 PM–8:26 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View HOU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Hobby departures running late: 71% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 17 departures that took off between 2:41 PM and 3:41 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 2:41 PM–3:41 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 71%Typical 35%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View HOU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 10\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal

\n

What changed: 50% → 32%; calm-weather level 26%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 32%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View HOU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Hobby departure delays ease: 53% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 85% → 53%

\n \n

Of 15 departures that took off between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:30 PM–9:30 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 53%Typical 39%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View HOU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 60%

\n

What changed: 69% → 60% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View HOU\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 61%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 61%

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What changed: 64% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Monday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 61%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 53%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 53%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 9\n 3 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 36%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 36%, near normal

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What changed: 45% → 36%; calm-weather level 29%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Monday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 36%Horizon 4.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n HOU\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Hobby arrivals running late: 64% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 8:30 PM–9:30 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 64%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 61%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 61%

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What changed: 73% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 61%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 65%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 65%

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What changed: 73% → 65% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Sunday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 65%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Hobby departures running late: 79% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 14 departures that took off between 2:54 PM and 3:54 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 2:54 PM–3:54 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 79%Typical 35%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 8\n 4 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 59%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 59% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Sunday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 59%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n HOU\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Hobby arrivals running late: 58% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 12 arrivals that landed between 9:27 PM and 10:27 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 9:27 PM–10:27 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Hobby departure delays ease: 38% late in the last hour, still above normal

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What changed: late share 81% → 38%

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Of 13 departures that took off between 8:17 PM and 9:17 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 8:17 PM–9:17 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 38%Typical 38%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 67%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 67%

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What changed: 79% → 67% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 67%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 72%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 72%

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What changed: 79% → 72% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 72%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 6\n 6 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 66%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 66% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 66%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Forecast 59%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 59%

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What changed: 69% → 59% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 59%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
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\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n HOU\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Hobby arrivals back near normal: 21% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 47% at worst → 21% now

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Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:24 PM and 8:24 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 7:24 PM–8:24 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 21%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n CST, Nov 5\n 7 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n HOU\n departures\n \n \n
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Hobby departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 16 departures that took off between 2:56 PM and 3:56 PM CST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 2:56 PM–3:56 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 62%Typical 35%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View HOU\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=HOU"}