{"items":[{"id":8724,"event_id":3735,"slug":"3735-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departure delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 80% → 54%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:22:26.261200Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:22 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:22:00Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:22 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:22:25.721414Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:22 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:22 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNToyMjoyNi4yNjEyMDArMDA6MDB8ODcyNA","measurement":{"window":"10:22 PM–11:22 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"54%","baseline_pct":"45%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8724,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8635,"event_id":3724,"slug":"3724-hou-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 75%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"62% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:57:39.490929Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:57:38.448228Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo1NzozOS40OTA5MjkrMDA6MDB8ODYzNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"75%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8635,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8622,"event_id":3813,"slug":"3813-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:47 PM and 8:47 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:47:27.479889Z","time":"8:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:47 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:47:00Z","time":"8:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:47 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T02:47:26.464270Z","time":"8:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 02:47 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwMjo0NzoyNy40Nzk4ODkrMDA6MDB8ODYyMg","measurement":{"window":"7:47 PM–8:47 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"57%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":18.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8622,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8459,"event_id":3723,"slug":"3723-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 73% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:16.792759Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:56:15.236030Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMTo1NjoxNi43OTI3NTkrMDA6MDB8ODQ1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"73%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T21:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8459,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8384,"event_id":3684,"slug":"3684-hou-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Hobby: 9 of 25 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:46 PM and 3:16 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 25. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:47:01.453760Z","time":"1:47 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:47 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:47 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:46:00Z","time":"1:46 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:46 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:46 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:46:59.440694Z","time":"1:46 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:46 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:46 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxOTo0NzowMS40NTM3NjArMDA6MDB8ODM4NA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","1:46 PM–3:16 PM CST"],["Tight turns","9 of 25"],["Share","36%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","1:46 PM–3:16 PM CST · 27 departures, aircraft known for 25"],["Tight turns","9 (36%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 5 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 2122 to MCI at 3:05 PM: aircraft N8556Z, inbound WN 1948 from FLL (airborne), -6 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2673 to RDU at 3:05 PM: aircraft N8566Z, inbound WN 2685 from OKC (not departed), 4 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2417 to BHM at 1:49 PM: aircraft N1810U, inbound WN 1015 from BWI (landed), 5 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2060 to BNA at 2:48 PM: aircraft N8842L, inbound WN 4494 from SAT (not departed), 16 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2133 to MDW at 2:18 PM: aircraft N903WN, inbound WN 2769 from LBB (airborne), 16 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8384,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8128,"event_id":3555,"slug":"3555-hou-taxi-in","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"Hobby arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 36% took 14+ min after landing","body":"Of 11 aircraft that landed at Hobby (HOU) between 7:54 PM and 8:54 PM CST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4.4 minutes; the median was 9.6 minutes. Usually 2% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T03:09:08.111376Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 03:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:54:00Z","time":"8:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T03:09:06.641887Z","time":"9:09 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 9:09 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 03:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMzowOTowOC4xMTEzNzYrMDA6MDB8ODEyOA","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","7:54 PM–8:54 PM CST"],["Sample","11 arrivals"],["Slow","36%"],["Usually","2%"]],"rows":[["Landings","7:54 PM–8:54 PM CST · 11 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","4 (36%) took 14+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","2% usually · typical taxi-in 4.4 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","9.6 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8128,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8123,"event_id":3552,"slug":"3552-hou-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 arrivals that landed between 7:26 PM and 8:26 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 46% at worst → 24% now","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:26:11.370882Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:26:00Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T02:26:10.366716Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 8:26 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 02:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQwMjoyNjoxMS4zNzA4ODIrMDA6MDB8ODEyMw","measurement":{"window":"7:26 PM–8:26 PM CST","n":17,"late_n":4,"share_pct":"24%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8123,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8108,"event_id":3547,"slug":"3547-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departures running late: 71% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 2:41 PM and 3:41 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T21:41:06.114925Z","time":"3:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 3:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 21:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T21:41:00Z","time":"3:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 3:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 21:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T21:41:04.539266Z","time":"3:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 3:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 21:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQyMTo0MTowNi4xMTQ5MjUrMDA6MDB8ODEwOA","measurement":{"window":"2:41 PM–3:41 PM CST","n":17,"late_n":12,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"35%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":19.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8108,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8083,"event_id":3536,"slug":"3536-hou-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 32%; calm-weather level 26%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T11:27:18.207274Z","time":"5:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 5:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 11:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T11:27:15.925864Z","time":"5:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 5:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 11:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxMToyNzoxOC4yMDcyNzQrMDA6MDB8ODA4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"HOU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-10 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-10T10:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 4:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8083,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8015,"event_id":3491,"slug":"3491-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departure delays ease: 53% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 85% → 53%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:30:06.629736Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:30:00Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T03:30:04.721051Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 03:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQwMzozMDowNi42Mjk3MzYrMDA6MDB8ODAxNQ","measurement":{"window":"8:30 PM–9:30 PM CST","n":15,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"53%","baseline_pct":"39%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8015,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7979,"event_id":3461,"slug":"3461-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"69% → 60% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:57:36.283014Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:57:34.051604Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMzo1NzozNi4yODMwMTQrMDA6MDB8Nzk3OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":16,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7979,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7967,"event_id":3460,"slug":"3460-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Monday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"64% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:56:30.136796Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:56:28.329194Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMjo1NjozMC4xMzY3OTYrMDA6MDB8Nzk2Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7967,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7926,"event_id":3479,"slug":"3479-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:07.081063Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T20:28:02.998232Z","time":"2:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 2:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 20:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMDoyODowNy4wODEwNjMrMDA6MDB8NzkyNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"53%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7926,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7914,"event_id":3470,"slug":"3470-hou-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Hobby: 8 of 22 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 24 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:54 PM and 3:24 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:54:54.131946Z","time":"1:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:54:00Z","time":"1:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T19:54:51.149550Z","time":"1:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 1:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxOTo1NDo1NC4xMzE5NDYrMDA6MDB8NzkxNA","measure":{"chips":[["Next","1:54 PM–3:24 PM CST"],["Tight turns","8 of 22"],["Share","36%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","1:54 PM–3:24 PM CST · 24 departures, aircraft known for 22"],["Tight turns","8 (36%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 5 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","MQ 3949 to DFW at 2:09 PM: aircraft N235NN, inbound MQ 3949 from DFW (airborne), -29 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2082 to DEN at 2:57 PM: aircraft N8813Q, inbound WN 232 from ATL (airborne), 6 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2060 to BNA at 2:47 PM: aircraft N8672F, inbound WN 4494 from SAT (not departed), 12 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2577 to STL at 2:51 PM: aircraft N8942L, inbound WN 3160 from MSY (airborne), 18 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 3167 to SAN at 3:18 PM: aircraft N8852Q, inbound WN 3883 from SJC (airborne), 22 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7914,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7862,"event_id":3430,"slug":"3430-hou-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 36%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Monday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 36%; calm-weather level 29%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T13:29:19.080977Z","time":"7:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 13:29 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T13:29:10.293491Z","time":"7:29 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 7:29 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 13:29 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxMzoyOToxOS4wODA5NzcrMDA6MDB8Nzg2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"36%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"HOU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":25,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T12:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7862,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7794,"event_id":3407,"slug":"3407-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals running late: 64% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:30:05.330946Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:30:00Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T03:30:03.025327Z","time":"9:30 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 9:30 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 03:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQwMzozMDowNS4zMzA5NDYrMDA6MDB8Nzc5NA","measurement":{"window":"8:30 PM–9:30 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":9,"share_pct":"64%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7794,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7725,"event_id":3361,"slug":"3361-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 61%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"73% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:56:11.196373Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:56:09.289120Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMjo1NjoxMS4xOTYzNzMrMDA6MDB8NzcyNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":0.1,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":18,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7725,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7724,"event_id":3360,"slug":"3360-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 65%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Sunday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"73% → 65% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:56:11.191131Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:56:09.289120Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMjo1NjoxMS4xOTExMzErMDA6MDB8NzcyNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"65%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-08T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7724,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7711,"event_id":3359,"slug":"3359-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departures running late: 79% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 2:54 PM and 3:54 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T21:54:06.732925Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 3:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 21:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T21:54:00Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 3:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 21:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T21:54:05.658307Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 3:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 21:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMTo1NDowNi43MzI5MjUrMDA6MDB8NzcxMQ","measurement":{"window":"2:54 PM–3:54 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"79%","baseline_pct":"35%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":31.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7711,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7694,"event_id":3352,"slug":"3352-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 59% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T20:27:03.021929Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 2:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 20:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T20:27:00.765506Z","time":"2:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 2:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 20:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQyMDoyNzowMy4wMjE5MjkrMDA6MDB8NzY5NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"59%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-08T19:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7694,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7687,"event_id":3346,"slug":"3346-hou-aircraft-turns","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"inbound_risk","type_label":"Inbound aircraft","headline":"Hobby: 11 of 25 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn","body":"Of the 26 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:45 PM and 3:15 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 25. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T19:45:38.029423Z","time":"1:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 19:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T19:45:00Z","time":"1:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 19:45 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T19:45:34.947654Z","time":"1:45 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 1:45 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 19:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"inbound_aircraft inbound-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQxOTo0NTozOC4wMjk0MjMrMDA6MDB8NzY4Nw","measure":{"chips":[["Next","1:45 PM–3:15 PM CST"],["Tight turns","11 of 25"],["Share","44%"]],"rows":[["Departures scheduled","1:45 PM–3:15 PM CST · 26 departures, aircraft known for 25"],["Tight turns","11 (44%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure"],["Inbound not yet in","2 not taken off · 8 in the air"],["Method","SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)"],["Tightest","WN 2127 to MCO at 1:53 PM: aircraft N293WN, inbound WN 2778 from MCO (airborne), -12 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 4600 to MSY at 3:08 PM: aircraft N8749Q, inbound WN 1304 from CRP (not departed), -4 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2060 to BNA at 2:47 PM: aircraft N8562Z, inbound WN 4494 from SAT (not departed), -2 min to turn"],["Tightest","DL 8841 to LAX at 2:01 PM: aircraft N664DN, inbound DL 8955 from PHX (airborne), 3 min to turn"],["Tightest","WN 2673 to RDU at 3:04 PM: aircraft N8840Q, inbound WN 2685 from OKC (airborne), 14 min to turn"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7687,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_inbound"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7435,"event_id":3234,"slug":"3234-hou-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby arrivals running late: 58% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 9:27 PM and 10:27 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T04:27:16.929999Z","time":"10:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 04:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T04:27:00Z","time":"10:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 04:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T04:27:16.084375Z","time":"10:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 10:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 04:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNDoyNzoxNi45Mjk5OTkrMDA6MDB8NzQzNQ","measurement":{"window":"9:27 PM–10:27 PM CST","n":12,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":34.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7435,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7406,"event_id":3178,"slug":"3178-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Hobby departure delays ease: 38% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 8:17 PM and 9:17 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 81% → 38%","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:17:57.248787Z","time":"9:17 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:17 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:17 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:17:00Z","time":"9:17 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:17 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:17 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:17:56.431761Z","time":"9:17 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 9:17 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:17 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMzoxNzo1Ny4yNDg3ODcrMDA6MDB8NzQwNg","measurement":{"window":"8:17 PM–9:17 PM CST","n":13,"late_n":5,"share_pct":"38%","baseline_pct":"38%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":5.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7406,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7266,"event_id":3148,"slug":"3148-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 67%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"79% → 67% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.849844Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"4:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44NDk4NDQrMDA6MDB8NzI2Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"67%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7266,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7265,"event_id":3147,"slug":"3147-hou-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 72%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"79% → 72% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["HOU"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.846951Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"4:55 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:55 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44NDY5NTErMDA6MDB8NzI2NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"72%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":7265,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC44NDY5NTErMDA6MDB8NzI2NQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNToyMjoyNi4yNjEyMDArMDA6MDB8ODcyNA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby departure delays ease: 54% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 80% → 54%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 75%

\n ▲ 62% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 57% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 73% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n 73% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n INBOUND\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby: 9 of 25 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 9 of 25\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n ARR\n TAXI-IN\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 36% took 14+ min after landing

\n Sample 11 arrivals\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n HOU\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby arrivals back near normal: 24% late in the last hour

\n late share 46% at worst → 24% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby departures running late: 71% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 71% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal

\n 50% → 32%; calm-weather level 26%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby departure delays ease: 53% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 85% → 53%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 60%

\n ▼ 69% → 60% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 61%

\n ▼ 64% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Monday

\n 53% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n INBOUND\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby: 8 of 22 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 8 of 22\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Informational\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 36%, near normal

\n 45% → 36%; calm-weather level 29%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n HOU\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby arrivals running late: 64% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 64% late\n
\n \n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 61%

\n ▼ 73% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 65%

\n ▼ 73% → 65% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby departures running late: 79% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 79% late\n
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\n
\n +Show details\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 59% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n 59% risk\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n INBOUND\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby: 11 of 25 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

\n Tight turns 11 of 25\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +Show details\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby arrivals running late: 58% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 58% late\n
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","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +2Show all 2 updates\n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Hobby departure delays ease: 38% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n ▼ late share 81% → 38%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 67%

\n ▼ 79% → 67% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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\n +3Show all 3 updates\n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n HOU\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 72%

\n ▼ 79% → 72% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
"],"filters":"airport=HOU&view=terminal"}