{"items":[{"id":10185,"event_id":4457,"slug":"4457-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 31 cancellations among Bush departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 31 of the 83 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.126825Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xMjY4MjUrMDA6MDB8MTAxODU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":30.7,"target":"IAH departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":83,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10185,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10184,"event_id":4361,"slug":"4361-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 49 among Bush departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 49 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 49 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.123601Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xMjM2MDErMDA6MDB8MTAxODQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":49.2,"target":"IAH departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":130,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10184,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10183,"event_id":4250,"slug":"4250-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 47 among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 47 of the 120 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 47 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.121381Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xMjEzODErMDA6MDB8MTAxODM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":47.1,"target":"IAH departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":120,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10183,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10182,"event_id":4198,"slug":"4198-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 37 among Bush departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 37 of the 83 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 37 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.118530Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xMTg1MzArMDA6MDB8MTAxODI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":36.6,"target":"IAH departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":83,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10182,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10181,"event_id":4456,"slug":"4456-iah-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Bush departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from Bush 3–6 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.087339Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4wODczMzkrMDA6MDB8MTAxODE","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":30.7,"target":"IAH departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":83,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10181,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9903,"event_id":4361,"slug":"4361-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among Bush departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.470581Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"2:27 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:27 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy40NzA1ODErMDA6MDB8OTkwMw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.7,"target":"IAH departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.5,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":130,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10184,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10184,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model now expects about 49 among Bush departures noon–3 PM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.123601Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9822,"event_id":4250,"slug":"4250-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 9 among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 120 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.329689Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS4zMjk2ODkrMDA6MDB8OTgyMg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.9,"target":"IAH departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":120,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10183,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10183,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 47 among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.121381Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9821,"event_id":4198,"slug":"4198-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 7 among Bush departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 83 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 7 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.325885Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"12:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS4zMjU4ODUrMDA6MDB8OTgyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.9,"target":"IAH departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":83,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"12:00 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10182,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10182,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 37 among Bush departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.118530Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9756,"event_id":4312,"slug":"4312-iah-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Bush arrivals running late: 100% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:54 PM and 11:54 PM CST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Bush arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:54:32.875475Z","time":"11:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:54:00Z","time":"11:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:54:32.648997Z","time":"11:54 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:54 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NDozMi44NzU0NzUrMDA6MDB8OTc1Ng","measurement":{"window":"10:54 PM–11:54 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"18%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":265.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9756,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9710,"event_id":4250,"slug":"4250-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 120 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 12 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.495035Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi40OTUwMzUrMDA6MDB8OTcxMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.1,"target":"IAH departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":120,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10183,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10183,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 47 among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.121381Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9649,"event_id":4250,"slug":"4250-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 120 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:17.100464Z","time":"9:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:58:15.993642Z","time":"9:58 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:58 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1ODoxNy4xMDA0NjQrMDA6MDB8OTY0OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.4,"target":"IAH departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":11.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":120,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10183,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10183,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 47 among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.121381Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9629,"event_id":4237,"slug":"4237-iah-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Bush departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 departures that took off between 8:41 PM and 9:41 PM CST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Bush typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:58.599572Z","time":"9:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:00Z","time":"9:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:41:58.304172Z","time":"9:41 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:41 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo0MTo1OC41OTk1NzIrMDA6MDB8OTYyOQ","measurement":{"window":"8:41 PM–9:41 PM CST","n":14,"late_n":14,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":238.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9629,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9574,"event_id":4198,"slug":"4198-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Bush departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 82 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.483534Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy40ODM1MzQrMDA6MDB8OTU3NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.4,"target":"IAH departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":82,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10182,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10182,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 37 among Bush departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.118530Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9573,"event_id":4170,"slug":"4170-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Bush departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 32 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 7 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.475477Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy40NzU0NzcrMDA6MDB8OTU3Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.3,"target":"IAH departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9573,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9526,"event_id":4170,"slug":"4170-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Bush departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.286798Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yODY3OTgrMDA6MDB8OTUyNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.9,"target":"IAH departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9573,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9573,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Bush departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.475477Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9509,"event_id":4152,"slug":"4152-iah-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:05 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:56 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:07:43.963602Z","time":"6:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:07 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:05:39.448000Z","time":"6:05 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:05 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:05 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:07:43.901097Z","time":"6:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:07 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowNzo0My45NjM2MDIrMDA6MDB8OTUwOQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9509,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9474,"event_id":4135,"slug":"4135-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Bush departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 171 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 16 → 28 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.396669Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS4zOTY2NjkrMDA6MDB8OTQ3NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":28.4,"target":"IAH departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":171,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9474,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9462,"event_id":4152,"slug":"4152-iah-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA reports departure delays of 150–164 min at Bush","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 150–164 min at Bush (IAH), citing “TM Initiatives:STOP:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Decreasing”.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.753929Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:56:36.050000Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOC43NTM5MjkrMDA6MDB8OTQ2Mg","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9509,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9509,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:07:43.963602Z","time":"6:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:07 UTC"}}},{"id":9461,"event_id":4150,"slug":"4150-iah-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:49 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:32 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:53:05.955110Z","time":"5:53 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:53 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:49:33.185000Z","time":"5:49 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:49 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:49 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:53:05.932635Z","time":"5:53 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:53 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1MzowNS45NTUxMTArMDA6MDB8OTQ2MQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9461,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9456,"event_id":4150,"slug":"4150-iah-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA reports departure delays of 166–180 min at Bush","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 166–180 min at Bush (IAH), citing “TM Initiatives:STOP:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:32:31.927384Z","time":"5:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:32 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:32:12.836000Z","time":"5:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:32 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:32:31.873611Z","time":"5:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:32 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzozMjozMS45MjczODQrMDA6MDB8OTQ1Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9461,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9461,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:53:05.955110Z","time":"5:53 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:53 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:53 UTC"}}},{"id":9452,"event_id":4146,"slug":"4146-iah-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:18 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:28:24.667650Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:25:14.017000Z","time":"5:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:28:24.527086Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzoyODoyNC42Njc2NTArMDA6MDB8OTQ1Mg","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9452,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9445,"event_id":4146,"slug":"4146-iah-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA reports departure delays of 151–165 min at Bush","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 151–165 min at Bush (IAH), citing “TM Initiatives:STOP:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:18:11.431914Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:18:05.534000Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:18 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:18:11.377989Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzoxODoxMS40MzE5MTQrMDA6MDB8OTQ0NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9452,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9452,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:28:24.667650Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:28 UTC"}}},{"id":9434,"event_id":4130,"slug":"4130-iah-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:56 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:48 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:59:39.836497Z","time":"4:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:56:36.603000Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:59:39.762931Z","time":"4:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo1OTozOS44MzY0OTcrMDA6MDB8OTQzNA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9434,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo1OTozOS44MzY0OTcrMDA6MDB8OTQzNA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4xMjY4MjUrMDA6MDB8MTAxODU","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 30 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 31 cancellations among Bush departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 31 of the 83 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~31 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 30 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 49 among Bush departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 49 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 49 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~49 cancellationsHorizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 30 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 47 among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 47 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 47 of the 120 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~47 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 30 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 37 among Bush departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 37 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 37 of the 83 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~37 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 30 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Bush departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from Bush 3–6 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among Bush departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 9 among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 120 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 14\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 7 among Bush departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 7 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 83 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IAH\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Bush arrivals running late: 100% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:54 PM and 11:54 PM CST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Bush arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:54 PM–11:54 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 100%Typical 18%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 12 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 120 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among Bush departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 120 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Bush departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 departures that took off between 8:41 PM and 9:41 PM CST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Bush typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:41 PM–9:41 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 100%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Bush departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 82 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Bush departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 7 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 32 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 11 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Bush departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:05 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:56 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Bush departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 16 → 28 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 171 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~28 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports departure delays of 150–164 min at Bush

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 150–164 min at Bush (IAH), citing “TM Initiatives:STOP:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Decreasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:49 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:32 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports departure delays of 166–180 min at Bush

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 166–180 min at Bush (IAH), citing “TM Initiatives:STOP:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:18 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports departure delays of 151–165 min at Bush

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 151–165 min at Bush (IAH), citing “TM Initiatives:STOP:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n CST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n IAH\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:56 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:48 PM CST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IAH\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=IAH&mode=all"}