{"items":[{"id":9526,"event_id":4170,"slug":"4170-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Bush departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.286798Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"7:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yODY3OTgrMDA6MDB8OTUyNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.9,"target":"IAH departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9526,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9509,"event_id":4152,"slug":"4152-iah-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:05 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:56 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:07:43.963602Z","time":"6:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:07 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:05:39.448000Z","time":"6:05 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:05 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:05 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:07:43.901097Z","time":"6:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:07 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowNzo0My45NjM2MDIrMDA6MDB8OTUwOQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9509,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. 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AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9474,"event_id":4135,"slug":"4135-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Bush departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 171 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 16 → 28 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.396669Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS4zOTY2NjkrMDA6MDB8OTQ3NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":28.4,"target":"IAH departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":171,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9474,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9462,"event_id":4152,"slug":"4152-iah-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA reports departure delays of 150–164 min at Bush","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 150–164 min at Bush (IAH), citing “TM Initiatives:STOP:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Decreasing”.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.753929Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:56:36.050000Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOC43NTM5MjkrMDA6MDB8OTQ2Mg","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9509,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9509,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:07:43.963602Z","time":"6:07 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:07 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:07 UTC"}}},{"id":9461,"event_id":4150,"slug":"4150-iah-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:49 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:32 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:53:05.955110Z","time":"5:53 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:53 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:49:33.185000Z","time":"5:49 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:49 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:49 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:53:05.932635Z","time":"5:53 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:53 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1MzowNS45NTUxMTArMDA6MDB8OTQ2MQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9461,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9456,"event_id":4150,"slug":"4150-iah-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. 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The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:32:31.927384Z","time":"5:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:32 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:32:12.836000Z","time":"5:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:32 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:32:31.873611Z","time":"5:32 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:32 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:32 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzozMjozMS45MjczODQrMDA6MDB8OTQ1Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9461,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9461,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:53:05.955110Z","time":"5:53 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:53 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:53 UTC"}}},{"id":9452,"event_id":4146,"slug":"4146-iah-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Bush (IAH) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:18 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:28:24.667650Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:25:14.017000Z","time":"5:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:28:24.527086Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzoyODoyNC42Njc2NTArMDA6MDB8OTQ1Mg","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9452,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9445,"event_id":4146,"slug":"4146-iah-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. 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The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:18:11.431914Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:18:05.534000Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:18 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:18:11.377989Z","time":"5:18 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:18 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzoxODoxMS40MzE5MTQrMDA6MDB8OTQ0NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9452,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9452,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:28:24.667650Z","time":"5:28 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:28 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:28 UTC"}}},{"id":9434,"event_id":4130,"slug":"4130-iah-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. 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It was first listed at 4:48 PM CST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:59:39.836497Z","time":"4:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:56:36.603000Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:59:39.762931Z","time":"4:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjo1OTozOS44MzY0OTcrMDA6MDB8OTQzNA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9434,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9420,"event_id":4135,"slug":"4135-iah-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":"range 31–45 → 46–60 min","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:27:44.135904Z","time":"3:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:25:46.144000Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:25 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:27:44.005338Z","time":"3:27 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMToyNzo0NC4xMzU5MDQrMDA6MDB8OTIxNg","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9368,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9368,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.240042Z","time":"4:03 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:03 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"}}},{"id":9210,"event_id":4004,"slug":"4004-iah-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Bush departures back near normal: 13% late in the last hour","body":"Of 15 departures that took off between 2:16 PM and 3:16 PM CST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Bush typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 59% at worst → 13% now","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:16:29.041857Z","time":"3:16 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:16 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:16:00Z","time":"3:16 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:16 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:16:28.523826Z","time":"3:16 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:16 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMToxNjoyOS4wNDE4NTcrMDA6MDB8OTIxMA","measurement":{"window":"2:16 PM–3:16 PM CST","n":15,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"13%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-3.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9210,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9209,"event_id":4050,"slug":"4050-iah-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA now reports departure delays of 31–45 min at Bush","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 31–45 min at Bush (IAH), citing “TM Initiatives:STOP:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":"range 16–30 → 31–45 min","airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:14:25.235548Z","time":"3:14 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:14 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:12:39.060000Z","time":"3:12 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:12 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:12 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:14:25.193726Z","time":"3:14 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:14 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMToxNDoyNS4yMzU1NDgrMDA6MDB8OTIwOQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9368,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9368,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.240042Z","time":"4:03 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:03 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"}}},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9198,"event_id":4050,"slug":"4050-iah-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Bush","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Bush (IAH), citing “TM Initiatives:STOP:EQ”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IAH"],"metros":["HOUSTON"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.486821Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:25.454000Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.432181Z","time":"2:59 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:59 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS40ODY4MjErMDA6MDB8OTE5OA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9368,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9368,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.240042Z","time":"4:03 PM","zone":"CST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:03 PM CST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"}}},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yODY3OTgrMDA6MDB8OTUyNg","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n IAH\n DEP\n CANCEL\n NEW\n \n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Bush departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n ~9 cancellations\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW · LATE\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n IAH\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among Bush departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ▲ about 16 → 28 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA reports departure delays of 150–164 min at Bush

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA reports departure delays of 166–180 min at Bush

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA reports departure delays of 151–165 min at Bush

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n IAH\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model expects about 16 cancellations among Bush departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ~16 cancellations\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA reports departure delays of 121–135 min at Bush

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA reports departure delays of 106–120 min at Bush

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Bush

\n departure delays no longer listed\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA now reports departure delays of 76–90 min at Bush

\n ▲ range 61–75 → 76–90 min\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

Model forecasts 72% delay risk for Bush departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n 72% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model forecasts 77% delay risk for Bush departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n 77% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA now reports departure delays of 61–75 min at Bush

\n ▲ range 46–60 → 61–75 min\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA now reports departure delays of 46–60 min at Bush

\n ▲ range 31–45 → 46–60 min\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Bush departures back near normal: 13% late in the last hour

\n late share 59% at worst → 13% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA now reports departure delays of 31–45 min at Bush

\n ▲ range 16–30 → 31–45 min\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Informational\n IAH\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

FAA reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Bush

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n
\n \n
"],"filters":"airport=IAH&mode=all&view=terminal"}