{"items":[{"id":10422,"event_id":4566,"slug":"4566-ind-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility. The latest, at 6:54 AM EST, reports no ceiling, visibility 7 mi, wind 7 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:23.575237Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:54:00Z","time":"6:54 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:54 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:22.205261Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMjoxMDoyMy41NzUyMzcrMDA6MDB8MTAyNzg","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","6:54 AM EST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","METAR KIND 141154Z 32007KT 7SM FEW011 FEW230 M01/M02 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP221 T10061017 10033 21006 53019"],["Station","KIND at Sat Nov 14, 6:54 AM EST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10278,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KIND&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10277,"event_id":4507,"slug":"4507-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:23.417989Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:22.205261Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMjoxMDoyMy40MTc5ODkrMDA6MDB8MTAyNzc","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":2.0,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.8,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10277,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10275,"event_id":4505,"slug":"4505-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:23.399760Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:22.205261Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMjoxMDoyMy4zOTk3NjArMDA6MDB8MTAyNzU","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":1.6,"target":"IND departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.8,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":24,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10275,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9346,"event_id":4009,"slug":"4009-ind-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 84% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.495254Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40OTUyNTQrMDA6MDB8OTM0Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":3.4,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9346,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8731,"event_id":3851,"slug":"3851-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis arrivals running late: 71% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:48 PM and 12:48 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.733697Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS43MzM2OTcrMDA6MDB8ODQxMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8412,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8367,"event_id":3671,"slug":"3671-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:45.603797Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:44.534616Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1NTo0NS42MDM3OTcrMDA6MDB8ODM2Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8367,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8195,"event_id":3582,"slug":"3582-ind-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis departure delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 83%","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:35:45.838815Z","time":"7:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:35:00Z","time":"7:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:35 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:35:44.689364Z","time":"7:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMDozNTo0NS44Mzg4MTUrMDA6MDB8ODE5NQ","measurement":{"window":"6:35 PM–7:35 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"83%","baseline_pct":"33%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":56.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8195,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7947,"event_id":3490,"slug":"3490-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:57:46.649178Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:57:43.251426Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMTo1Nzo0Ni42NDkxNzgrMDA6MDB8Nzk0Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7947,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7667,"event_id":3332,"slug":"3332-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 6:59 AM and 7:59 AM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). 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Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.987188Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS45ODcxODgrMDA6MDB8NzAyMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7023,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6883,"event_id":3011,"slug":"3011-ind-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 32%; calm-weather level 20%","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:56:13.984769Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:56:13.255613Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxMTo1NjoxMy45ODQ3NjkrMDA6MDB8Njg4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6883,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6859,"event_id":3012,"slug":"3012-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:57:46.734536Z","time":"4:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:57:46.158906Z","time":"4:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwOTo1Nzo0Ni43MzQ1MzYrMDA6MDB8Njg1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6859,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5895,"event_id":2590,"slug":"2590-ind-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 10:54 PM EST. The latest, at 11:25 PM EST, reports ceiling 4900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 10 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T04:44:09.827622Z","time":"11:44 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:44 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 04:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T04:25:00Z","time":"11:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 04:25 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T04:44:08.589597Z","time":"11:44 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 11:44 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 04:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwNDo0NDowOS44Mjc2MjIrMDA6MDB8NTg5NQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","11:25 PM EST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KIND 030425Z 14010KT 10SM SCT007 SCT043 OVC049 16/14 A3009 RMK AO2 T01560144"],["Station","KIND at Mon Nov 2, 11:25 PM EST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5895,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KIND&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5868,"event_id":2497,"slug":"2497-ind-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 9:54 PM EST. The latest, at 10:24 PM EST, reports ceiling 4900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 7 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:44:27.834682Z","time":"10:44 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:44 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:44 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:24:00Z","time":"10:24 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:24 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:24 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-03T03:44:25.730065Z","time":"10:44 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 10:44 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-03 03:44 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wM1QwMzo0NDoyNy44MzQ2ODIrMDA6MDB8NTg2OA","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","10:24 PM EST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KIND 030324Z 13007KT 10SM SCT007 BKN049 15/14 A3011 RMK AO2 T01500144"],["Station","KIND at Mon Nov 2, 10:24 PM EST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5868,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KIND&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5563,"event_id":2327,"slug":"2327-ind-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 12:54 PM EST. The latest, at 1:07 PM EST, reports ceiling 1000 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 13 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:45:40.588042Z","time":"1:45 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:45 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:45 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:07:00Z","time":"1:07 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:07 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:07 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T18:45:38.974652Z","time":"1:45 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"11 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 1:45 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 18:45 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxODo0NTo0MC41ODgwNDIrMDA6MDB8NTU2Mw","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","1:07 PM EST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KIND 021807Z 18013KT 10SM OVC010 15/13 A3016 RMK AO2 T01500128"],["Station","KIND at Mon Nov 2, 1:07 PM EST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":5563,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KIND&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxODo0NTo0MC41ODgwNDIrMDA6MDB8NTU2Mw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC40MTI2ODYrMDA6MDB8MTA0MjI","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 54 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 54 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 31 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 54 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 24 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 54 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%

\n

What changed: 55% → 60% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n IND\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis

\n

What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

\n \n

No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility. The latest, at 6:54 AM EST, reports no ceiling, visibility 7 mi, wind 7 kt.

\n \n

Observed 6:54 AM EST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 7.8 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 41%Horizon 1.8 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 16 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%

\n

What changed: 49% → 84% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 32 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis arrivals running late: 71% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:48 PM and 12:48 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:48 PM–12:48 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 71%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 41 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 47%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 43 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Thursday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis departure delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 50% → 83%

\n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:35 PM–7:35 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 83%Typical 33%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Monday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 8\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 16 departures that took off between 6:59 AM and 7:59 AM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

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Window 6:59 AM–7:59 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 8%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Indianapolis arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

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Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:04 PM and 12:04 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:04 PM–12:04 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
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Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal

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What changed: 43% → 32%; calm-weather level 20%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 32%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 43%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n IND\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis

\n

What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

\n \n

No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 10:54 PM EST. The latest, at 11:25 PM EST, reports ceiling 4900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 10 kt.

\n \n

Observed 11:25 PM EST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n IND\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis

\n

What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

\n \n

No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 9:54 PM EST. The latest, at 10:24 PM EST, reports ceiling 4900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 7 kt.

\n \n

Observed 10:24 PM EST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 11 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n IND\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis

\n

What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

\n \n

No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 12:54 PM EST. The latest, at 1:07 PM EST, reports ceiling 1000 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 13 kt.

\n \n

Observed 1:07 PM EST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View IND\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=IND"}