{"items":[{"id":10422,"event_id":4566,"slug":"4566-ind-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.412686Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC40MTI2ODYrMDA6MDB8MTA0MjI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.2,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10422,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10421,"event_id":4565,"slug":"4565-ind-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 9 cancellations among Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 31 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.409400Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC40MDk0MDArMDA6MDB8MTA0MjE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":8.9,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10421,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10420,"event_id":4564,"slug":"4564-ind-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 24 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.399999Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4zOTk5OTkrMDA6MDB8MTA0MjA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.4,"target":"IND departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":24,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10420,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10419,"event_id":4506,"slug":"4506-ind-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 60% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.379301Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4zNzkzMDErMDA6MDB8MTA0MTk","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":8.9,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10419,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10278,"event_id":4285,"slug":"4285-ind-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility. The latest, at 6:54 AM EST, reports no ceiling, visibility 7 mi, wind 7 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:23.575237Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:54:00Z","time":"6:54 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:54 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:54 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:22.205261Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMjoxMDoyMy41NzUyMzcrMDA6MDB8MTAyNzg","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","6:54 AM EST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","METAR KIND 141154Z 32007KT 7SM FEW011 FEW230 M01/M02 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP221 T10061017 10033 21006 53019"],["Station","KIND at Sat Nov 14, 6:54 AM EST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10278,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KIND&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10277,"event_id":4507,"slug":"4507-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:23.417989Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:22.205261Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMjoxMDoyMy40MTc5ODkrMDA6MDB8MTAyNzc","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":2.0,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.8,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":30,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10277,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10276,"event_id":4506,"slug":"4506-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:23.412530Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:22.205261Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMjoxMDoyMy40MTI1MzArMDA6MDB8MTAyNzY","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.8,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10419,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10419,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.379301Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"}}},{"id":10275,"event_id":4505,"slug":"4505-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:23.399760Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:22.205261Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMjoxMDoyMy4zOTk3NjArMDA6MDB8MTAyNzU","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":1.6,"target":"IND departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.8,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":24,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10275,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9693,"event_id":4285,"slug":"4285-ind-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis","body":"The 11:49 PM EST official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) reports ceiling 900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 9 kt. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:53:34.826844Z","time":"11:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:53 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:49:00Z","time":"11:49 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:49 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:49 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:53:33.756524Z","time":"11:53 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:53 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:53 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1MzozNC44MjY4NDQrMDA6MDB8OTY5Mw","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","11:49 PM EST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KIND 140449Z 32009KT 10SM BKN009 02/01 A3007 RMK AO2"],["Station","KIND at Fri Nov 13, 11:49 PM EST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10278,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KIND&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10278,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:23.575237Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"}}},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9346,"event_id":4009,"slug":"4009-ind-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 84% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.495254Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40OTUyNTQrMDA6MDB8OTM0Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":3.4,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9346,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9130,"event_id":4009,"slug":"4009-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:32.938533Z","time":"3:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:27.665969Z","time":"3:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDoyNzozMi45Mzg1MzMrMDA6MDB8OTEzMA","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9346,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9346,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.495254Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}},{"id":8731,"event_id":3851,"slug":"3851-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis arrivals running late: 71% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:48 PM and 12:48 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:49.213125Z","time":"12:48 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:48 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:00Z","time":"12:48 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:48 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:48.562112Z","time":"12:48 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"35 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:48 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo0ODo0OS4yMTMxMjUrMDA6MDB8ODczMQ","measurement":{"window":"11:48 PM–12:48 AM EST","n":14,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":50.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8731,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8412,"event_id":3700,"slug":"3700-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.733697Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS43MzM2OTcrMDA6MDB8ODQxMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8412,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8367,"event_id":3671,"slug":"3671-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:45.603797Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:44.534616Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1NTo0NS42MDM3OTcrMDA6MDB8ODM2Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"47 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8367,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8195,"event_id":3582,"slug":"3582-ind-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis departure delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 83%","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:35:45.838815Z","time":"7:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:35:00Z","time":"7:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:35 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:35:44.689364Z","time":"7:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMDozNTo0NS44Mzg4MTUrMDA6MDB8ODE5NQ","measurement":{"window":"6:35 PM–7:35 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"83%","baseline_pct":"33%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":56.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8195,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8180,"event_id":3582,"slug":"3582-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 4:14 PM and 5:14 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-11T22:14:20.785545Z","time":"5:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 5:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 22:14 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-11T22:14:00Z","time":"5:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 5:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 22:14 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-11T22:14:19.779201Z","time":"5:14 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 5:14 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-11 22:14 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMVQyMjoxNDoyMC43ODU1NDUrMDA6MDB8ODE4MA","measurement":{"window":"4:14 PM–5:14 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"26%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8195,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":8195,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Indianapolis departure delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:35:45.838815Z","time":"7:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:35 UTC"}}},{"id":7947,"event_id":3490,"slug":"3490-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:57:46.649178Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:57:43.251426Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMTo1Nzo0Ni42NDkxNzgrMDA6MDB8Nzk0Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7947,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7667,"event_id":3332,"slug":"3332-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 6:59 AM and 7:59 AM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T12:59:43.612654Z","time":"7:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 12:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T12:59:00Z","time":"7:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 12:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T12:59:41.762958Z","time":"7:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 12:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQxMjo1OTo0My42MTI2NTQrMDA6MDB8NzY2Nw","measurement":{"window":"6:59 AM–7:59 AM EST","n":16,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"8%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7667,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7445,"event_id":3236,"slug":"3236-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:04 PM and 12:04 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:04:02.229420Z","time":"12:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:04:00Z","time":"12:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:04:01.461610Z","time":"12:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNTowNDowMi4yMjk0MjArMDA6MDB8NzQ0NQ","measurement":{"window":"11:04 PM–12:04 AM EST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7445,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7023,"event_id":3077,"slug":"3077-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.987188Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS45ODcxODgrMDA6MDB8NzAyMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7023,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6883,"event_id":3011,"slug":"3011-ind-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 32%; calm-weather level 20%","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:56:13.984769Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:56:13.255613Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxMTo1NjoxMy45ODQ3NjkrMDA6MDB8Njg4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6883,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxMTo1NjoxMy45ODQ3NjkrMDA6MDB8Njg4Mw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC40MTI2ODYrMDA6MDB8MTA0MjI","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 31 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 24 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%

\n

What changed: 55% → 60% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n IND\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis

\n

What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

\n \n

No official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility. The latest, at 6:54 AM EST, reports no ceiling, visibility 7 mi, wind 7 kt.

\n \n

Observed 6:54 AM EST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 7.8 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 55%Horizon 4.8 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 41%Horizon 1.8 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n \n Weather\n IND\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at Indianapolis

\n \n \n

The 11:49 PM EST official weather observation (METAR) for Indianapolis (IND) reports ceiling 900 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 9 kt. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.

\n \n

Observed 11:49 PM EST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%

\n

What changed: 49% → 84% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 20 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 35 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis arrivals running late: 71% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:48 PM and 12:48 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:48 PM–12:48 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 71%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 44 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 46 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis departure delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% → 83%

\n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:35 PM–7:35 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 83%Typical 33%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 4:14 PM and 5:14 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 4:14 PM–5:14 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 26%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 8\n 6 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 16 departures that took off between 6:59 AM and 7:59 AM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:59 AM–7:59 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 8%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:04 PM and 12:04 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:04 PM–12:04 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal

\n

What changed: 43% → 32%; calm-weather level 20%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 32%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=IND&mode=all"}