{"items":[{"id":12427,"event_id":5111,"slug":"5111-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Sunday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:38.471622Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:26:37.113811Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC40NzE2MjIrMDA6MDB8MTI0Mjc","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":32,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12427,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12335,"event_id":5075,"slug":"5075-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis departures running late: 46% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 departures that took off between 6:56 AM and 7:56 AM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:56:01.635119Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:56:00Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:56 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T12:56:01.217362Z","time":"7:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 7:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 12:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMjo1NjowMS42MzUxMTkrMDA6MDB8MTIzMzU","measurement":{"window":"6:56 AM–7:56 AM EST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"8%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":4.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12335,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12177,"event_id":5026,"slug":"5026-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Sunday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:48.781050Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:55:46.219164Z","time":"5:55 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:55 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMDo1NTo0OC43ODEwNTArMDA6MDB8MTIxNzc","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":11.5,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12177,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11878,"event_id":4943,"slug":"4943-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:36.084631Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T07:26:33.606557Z","time":"2:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 2:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 07:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNzoyNjozNi4wODQ2MzErMDA6MDB8MTE4Nzg","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":2.5,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":28,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T06:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11878,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11726,"event_id":4879,"slug":"4879-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:17.462721Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:56:16.533924Z","time":"11:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwNDo1NjoxNy40NjI3MjErMDA6MDB8MTE3MjY","forecast":{"p_pct":"40%","expected_cancellations":2.2,"target":"IND departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":11726,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11069,"event_id":4507,"slug":"4507-ind-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 68%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 68% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:22:27.465611Z","time":"2:22 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:22 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:22 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:22:26.520607Z","time":"2:22 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:22 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:22 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxOToyMjoyNy40NjU2MTErMDA6MDB8MTEwNjk","forecast":{"p_pct":"68%","expected_cancellations":4.5,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":29,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"21 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11069,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10419,"event_id":4506,"slug":"4506-ind-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 60% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:10.379301Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjoxMC4zNzkzMDErMDA6MDB8MTA0MTk","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":8.9,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":31,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10419,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10275,"event_id":4505,"slug":"4505-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:23.399760Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:10:22.205261Z","time":"7:10 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:10 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:10 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMjoxMDoyMy4zOTk3NjArMDA6MDB8MTAyNzU","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":1.6,"target":"IND departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.8,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":24,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":10275,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9346,"event_id":4009,"slug":"4009-ind-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 84% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.495254Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"41 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC40OTUyNTQrMDA6MDB8OTM0Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":3.4,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9346,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8731,"event_id":3851,"slug":"3851-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis arrivals running late: 71% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:48 PM and 12:48 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:49.213125Z","time":"12:48 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:48 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:00Z","time":"12:48 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:48 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T05:48:48.562112Z","time":"12:48 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:48 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 05:48 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNTo0ODo0OS4yMTMxMjUrMDA6MDB8ODczMQ","measurement":{"window":"11:48 PM–12:48 AM EST","n":14,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":50.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8731,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8412,"event_id":3700,"slug":"3700-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:55.733697Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T20:25:51.027626Z","time":"3:25 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 3:25 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 20:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMDoyNTo1NS43MzM2OTcrMDA6MDB8ODQxMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"47%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8412,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8367,"event_id":3671,"slug":"3671-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:45.603797Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:55:44.534616Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxODo1NTo0NS42MDM3OTcrMDA6MDB8ODM2Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"41%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8367,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8195,"event_id":3582,"slug":"3582-ind-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis departure delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 50% → 83%","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:35:45.838815Z","time":"7:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:35:00Z","time":"7:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:35 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:35:44.689364Z","time":"7:35 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:35 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMDozNTo0NS44Mzg4MTUrMDA6MDB8ODE5NQ","measurement":{"window":"6:35 PM–7:35 PM EST","n":12,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"83%","baseline_pct":"33%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":56.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8195,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7947,"event_id":3490,"slug":"3490-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Monday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:57:46.649178Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:57:43.251426Z","time":"4:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQyMTo1Nzo0Ni42NDkxNzgrMDA6MDB8Nzk0Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.2,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":26,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-09T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"5 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7947,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7667,"event_id":3332,"slug":"3332-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 16 departures that took off between 6:59 AM and 7:59 AM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-08T12:59:43.612654Z","time":"7:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 12:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-08T12:59:00Z","time":"7:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 12:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-08T12:59:41.762958Z","time":"7:59 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 8","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Sun Nov 8, 7:59 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-08 12:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOFQxMjo1OTo0My42MTI2NTQrMDA6MDB8NzY2Nw","measurement":{"window":"6:59 AM–7:59 AM EST","n":16,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"50%","baseline_pct":"8%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7667,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7445,"event_id":3236,"slug":"3236-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:04 PM and 12:04 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:04:02.229420Z","time":"12:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:04:00Z","time":"12:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T05:04:01.461610Z","time":"12:04 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 12:04 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 05:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwNTowNDowMi4yMjk0MjArMDA6MDB8NzQ0NQ","measurement":{"window":"11:04 PM–12:04 AM EST","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":14.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7445,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7023,"event_id":3077,"slug":"3077-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:05.987188Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:56:02.771516Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNjo1NjowNS45ODcxODgrMDA6MDB8NzAyMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"42%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":7023,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6883,"event_id":3011,"slug":"3011-ind-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"43% → 32%; calm-weather level 20%","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:56:13.984769Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:56:13.255613Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxMTo1NjoxMy45ODQ3NjkrMDA6MDB8Njg4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"32%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":41,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6883,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6859,"event_id":3012,"slug":"3012-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:57:46.734536Z","time":"4:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:57:46.158906Z","time":"4:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQwOTo1Nzo0Ni43MzQ1MzYrMDA6MDB8Njg1OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"43%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":45,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T09:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 4:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":6859,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5368,"event_id":2347,"slug":"2347-ind-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 31%; calm-weather level 20%","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T13:58:40.754430Z","time":"8:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 13:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T13:58:34.605148Z","time":"8:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 8:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 13:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxMzo1ODo0MC43NTQ0MzArMDA6MDB8NTM2OA","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"IND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":44,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5368,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5313,"event_id":2346,"slug":"2346-ind-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 28%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Monday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 28%; calm-weather level 18%","airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T11:58:25.898450Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 11:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T11:58:22.008372Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:58 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 11:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQxMTo1ODoyNS44OTg0NTArMDA6MDB8NTMxMw","forecast":{"p_pct":"28%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":39,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-02T11:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":5313,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":5146,"event_id":2288,"slug":"2288-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis arrivals running late: 71% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:09 PM and 12:09 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-02T05:09:32.244729Z","time":"12:09 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:09 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 05:09 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-02T05:09:00Z","time":"12:09 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:09 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 05:09 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-02T05:09:29.965349Z","time":"12:09 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 2","ago":"13 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 2, 12:09 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-02 05:09 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wMlQwNTowOTozMi4yNDQ3MjkrMDA6MDB8NTE0Ng","measurement":{"window":"11:09 PM–12:09 AM EST","n":14,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":36.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":5146,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":3119,"event_id":1373,"slug":"1373-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:26 PM and 12:26 AM EDT, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-26T04:26:52.325689Z","time":"12:26 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 12:26 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 04:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-26T04:26:00Z","time":"12:26 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 12:26 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 04:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-26T04:26:51.290274Z","time":"12:26 AM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 26","ago":"20 days ago","full":"Mon Oct 26, 12:26 AM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-26 04:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNlQwNDoyNjo1Mi4zMjU2ODkrMDA6MDB8MzExOQ","measurement":{"window":"11:26 PM–12:26 AM EDT","n":13,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"46%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":11.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3119,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2685,"event_id":1184,"slug":"1184-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Indianapolis departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 departures that took off between 8:13 PM and 9:13 PM EDT, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-24T01:13:19.190799Z","time":"9:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 9:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 01:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-24T01:13:00Z","time":"9:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 9:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 01:13 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-24T01:13:17.973719Z","time":"9:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 9:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-24 01:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yNFQwMToxMzoxOS4xOTA3OTkrMDA6MDB8MjY4NQ","measurement":{"window":"8:13 PM–9:13 PM EDT","n":12,"late_n":7,"share_pct":"58%","baseline_pct":"37%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":23.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2685,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2483,"event_id":1105,"slug":"1105-ind-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["IND"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:56:05.822726Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:56 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:55:56.635395Z","time":"2:55 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:55 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QxODo1NjowNS44MjI3MjYrMDA6MDB8MjQ4Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.3,"target":"IND departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":36,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-23T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 23","ago":"22 days ago","full":"Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-23 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2483,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0yM1QxODo1NjowNS44MjI3MjYrMDA6MDB8MjQ4Mw","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMzoyNjozOC40NzE2MjIrMDA6MDB8MTI0Mjc","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Sunday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis departures running late: 46% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 departures that took off between 6:56 AM and 7:56 AM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:56 AM–7:56 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 8%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Sunday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 15\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 40%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 40%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 68%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 68%

\n

What changed: 44% → 68% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 68%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%

\n

What changed: 55% → 60% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 27 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 41%Horizon 1.8 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 41 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%

\n

What changed: 49% → 84% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis arrivals running late: 71% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:48 PM and 12:48 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:48 PM–12:48 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 71%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 47%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 47%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 41%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 3 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis departure delays worsen: 83% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 50% → 83%

\n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:35 PM–7:35 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 83%Typical 33%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 9\n 5 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Monday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 8\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 16 departures that took off between 6:59 AM and 7:59 AM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:59 AM–7:59 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 8%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 7\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:04 PM and 12:04 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:04 PM–12:04 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 8 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 42%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 42%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 9 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 32%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 32%, near normal

\n

What changed: 43% → 32%; calm-weather level 20%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 32%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 9 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 43%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 43%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 13 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 31%, near normal

\n

What changed: 42% → 31%; calm-weather level 20%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 31%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 13 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 28%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 28%, near normal

\n

What changed: 44% → 28%; calm-weather level 18%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Monday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 28%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 2\n 13 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis arrivals running late: 71% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:09 PM and 12:09 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:09 PM–12:09 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 71%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 26\n 20 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:26 PM and 12:26 AM EDT, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 11:26 PM–12:26 AM EDTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 23\n 22 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Indianapolis departures running late: 58% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 departures that took off between 8:13 PM and 9:13 PM EDT, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:13 PM–9:13 PM EDTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 37%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 23\n 22 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n IND\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 44%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View IND\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=IND"}