{"items":[{"id":11,"event_id":10,"slug":"10-jfk-restriction","kind":"update","kind_label":"Update","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA updates JFK ground delay program","body":"The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to JFK (JFK), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 60 min and a maximum of 133 min. 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.316725Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTY3MjUrMDA6MDB8Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":71,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2,"event_id":2,"slug":"2-jfk-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.313854Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTM4NTQrMDA6MDB8Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":109,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMDoyMzoxMy45MDcyMjMrMDA6MDB8MTE","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Update\n Traffic restriction\n JFK\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA updates JFK ground delay program

\n

What changed: reason now “thunderstorms”

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to JFK (JFK), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 60 min and a maximum of 133 min. Departures to JFK are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Delay\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
"],"filters":"airport=JFK"}