{"items":[{"id":11133,"event_id":4580,"slug":"4580-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 18 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:18.807367Z","time":"3:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T20:26:12.179045Z","time":"3:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 20:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDoyNjoxOC44MDczNjcrMDA6MDB8MTExMzM","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":17.9,"target":"JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":68,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T19:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 19:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":11133,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11005,"event_id":4459,"slug":"4459-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 15 → 22 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.673333Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS42NzMzMzMrMDA6MDB8MTEwMDU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":22.4,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11005,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11004,"event_id":4420,"slug":"4420-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among JFK departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 91 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 21 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:51.641696Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:55:47.722060Z","time":"1:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxODo1NTo1MS42NDE2OTYrMDA6MDB8MTEwMDQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":21.1,"target":"JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":91,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":11004,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10771,"event_id":4363,"slug":"4363-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 21 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 75 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 39 → 21 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:27.927875Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyNy45Mjc4NzUrMDA6MDB8MTA3NzE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":20.7,"target":"JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":75,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10771,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10086,"event_id":4206,"slug":"4206-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 45 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 45 of the 95 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (47%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 45 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.565010Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"5:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC41NjUwMTArMDA6MDB8MTAwODY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":45.1,"target":"JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":95,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10086,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9909,"event_id":4173,"slug":"4173-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 13 → 9 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.612117Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"3:27 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:27 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy42MTIxMTcrMDA6MDB8OTkwOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.4,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":102,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9909,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9720,"event_id":4205,"slug":"4205-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 18 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.567481Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"11:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi41Njc0ODErMDA6MDB8OTcyMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.8,"target":"JFK departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":18,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9720,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9534,"event_id":3940,"slug":"3940-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 46 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 46 of the 66 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (70%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 41 → 46 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.370504Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"8:27 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"19 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:27 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4zNzA1MDQrMDA6MDB8OTUzNA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":46.4,"target":"JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":66,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":9,"latest_update_id":9534,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":9,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9280,"event_id":3901,"slug":"3901-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 74 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 74 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (74%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 74 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:50.037684Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"4:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"22 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MC4wMzc2ODQrMDA6MDB8OTI4MA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":74.5,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":100,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":9280,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9078,"event_id":3884,"slug":"3884-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among JFK departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 98 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 13 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.245044Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"1:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4yNDUwNDQrMDA6MDB8OTA3OA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.1,"target":"JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9078,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9000,"event_id":3855,"slug":"3855-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 70 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 5 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:56:50.217329Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:56:47.532580Z","time":"11:56 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"27 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:56 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNjo1Njo1MC4yMTczMjkrMDA6MDB8OTAwMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.1,"target":"JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":70,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T16:00:00Z","time":"11:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":9000,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8879,"event_id":3806,"slug":"3806-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 16 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 105 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 24 → 16 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:45.249620Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T13:26:44.385825Z","time":"8:26 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMzoyNjo0NS4yNDk2MjArMDA6MDB8ODg3OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.1,"target":"JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":105,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T12:00:00Z","time":"7:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"32 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":10,"latest_update_id":8879,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":10,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8830,"event_id":3782,"slug":"3782-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 7 → 12 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:57:45.286994Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:57:44.821486Z","time":"5:57 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:57 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMDo1Nzo0NS4yODY5OTQrMDA6MDB8ODgzMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.0,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":101,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T10:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":8830,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8517,"event_id":3689,"slug":"3689-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 71 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 14 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:57:27.995833Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:57:25.046625Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMzo1NzoyNy45OTU4MzMrMDA6MDB8ODUxNw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":13.8,"target":"JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":71,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T23:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8517,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8486,"event_id":3625,"slug":"3625-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:45.822616Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:57:44.677675Z","time":"5:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"45 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQyMjo1Nzo0NS44MjI2MTYrMDA6MDB8ODQ4Ng","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.6,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"46 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8486,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8206,"event_id":3599,"slug":"3599-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 5 cancellations among JFK departures 3–6 PM Thursday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 95 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T01:26:52.997660Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 01:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T01:26:51.846381Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 8:26 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 01:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQwMToyNjo1Mi45OTc2NjArMDA6MDB8ODIwNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.4,"target":"JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)","horizon_h":18.6,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":95,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-12T00:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 11","ago":"2 days ago","full":"Wed Nov 11, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":8206,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7257,"event_id":3170,"slug":"3170-jfk-cancellation-risk","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday to about 3","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 96 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 3","airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:56:00.791153Z","time":"5:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:55:59.164561Z","time":"5:55 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:55 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQyMjo1NjowMC43OTExNTMrMDA6MDB8NzI1Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":96,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-06T22:00:00Z","time":"5:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 5:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7257,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMDoyNjoxOC44MDczNjcrMDA6MDB8MTExMzM","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 24 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

\n

What changed: about 14 → 18 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~18 cancellationsHorizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 15 → 22 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~22 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among JFK departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 14 → 21 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 91 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 21 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 39 → 21 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 75 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 45 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 45 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 45 of the 95 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (47%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~45 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 14\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 13 → 9 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 18 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 19 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 46 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 41 → 46 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 46 of the 66 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (70%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~46 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (9)\n 8 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 22 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 74 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 74 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 74 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (74%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~74 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among JFK departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 13 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 98 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 27 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 5 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 70 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 31 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 16 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday

\n

What changed: about 24 → 16 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 105 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (10)\n 9 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 33 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday

\n

What changed: about 7 → 12 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 44 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 14 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 71 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 12\n 45 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Thursday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 11\n 2 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 5 cancellations among JFK departures 3–6 PM Thursday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 95 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 18.6 hModel famA-fc-v3

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Cancellation\n JFK\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday to about 3

\n

What changed: about 5 → 3

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 96 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View JFK\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=JFK"}