{"items":[{"id":3,"event_id":3,"slug":"3-jfk-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.316725Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTY3MjUrMDA6MDB8Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":0.7,"target":"JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":71,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":3,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":2,"event_id":2,"slug":"2-jfk-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["JFK"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.313854Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTM4NTQrMDA6MDB8Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":109,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":2,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTY3MjUrMDA6MDB8Mw","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"3\" data-event=\"3\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTY3MjUrMDA6MDB8Mw\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-3\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-16T19:54:42.316725Z\" title=\"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC · Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT\">3:54 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EDT, Oct 16</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-16T19:54:42.316725Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 49%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-new\" title=\"The event's current status\">New</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/JFK\">JFK</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-3\"><a href=\"/wire/events/3-jfk-delays#u-3\">Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>49%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>5.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/3-jfk-delays#u-3\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/JFK\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View JFK</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"3\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/3-jfk-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>","\n\n<article class=\"wi sev-significant\" data-id=\"2\" data-event=\"2\" data-cursor=\"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMTM4NTQrMDA6MDB8Mg\" aria-labelledby=\"wi-h-2\">\n  <div class=\"wi-t\">\n    <time datetime=\"2026-10-16T19:54:42.313854Z\" title=\"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC · Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT\">3:54 PM</time>\n    <span class=\"wi-z\">EDT, Oct 16</span>\n    <span class=\"wi-ago\" data-ago=\"2026-10-16T19:54:42.313854Z\">3 h ago</span>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"wi-main\">\n    \n    <div class=\"wi-meta\">\n      <span class=\"ev ev-forecast\" title=\"Tailodds&#39; model predicts it. It has not happened.\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\"><use href=\"#wi-fc\"/></svg>Forecast 49%</span>\n      <span class=\"sev sev-significant\"><span class=\"bars\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i></i><i></i><i></i></span>Significant</span>\n      <span class=\"st st-resolved\" title=\"The event's current status\">Resolved</span>\n      \n      \n      <span class=\"wi-type\">Delay</span>\n      <a class=\"apt\" href=\"/airport/JFK\">JFK</a>\n      <span class=\"wi-dir\">departures</span>\n      \n      \n    </div>\n    <h3 id=\"wi-h-2\"><a href=\"/wire/events/2-jfk-delays#u-2\">Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday</a></h3>\n    \n    \n    <p class=\"wi-body\">Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.</p>\n    \n    <p class=\"wi-facts\"><span>Probability <b>49%</b></span><span>Horizon <b>2.1 h</b></span><span>Model <b class=\"mono\">famB-sd-v4i</b></span></p>\n    \n    \n    <div class=\"wi-foot\">\n      <span class=\"wi-src\">Source: Tailodds forecast</span>\n      <a href=\"/wire/events/2-jfk-delays#u-2\" data-act=\"open\">Timeline (1)</a>\n      \n      <a href=\"/airport/JFK\" data-act=\"view_airport\">View JFK</a>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-follow=\"2\">Follow</button>\n      <button type=\"button\" class=\"linkbtn\" data-copy=\"/wire/events/2-jfk-delays\">Copy link</button>\n    </div>\n  </div>\n</article>"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=JFK"}