{"items":[{"id":10105,"event_id":4349,"slug":"4349-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 9 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.994592Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC45OTQ1OTIrMDA6MDB8MTAxMDU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.9,"target":"LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":6.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10105,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10104,"event_id":4396,"slug":"4396-las-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.989460Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"16 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC45ODk0NjArMDA6MDB8MTAxMDQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10104,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10016,"event_id":4368,"slug":"4368-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 97 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 18 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.811856Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC44MTE4NTYrMDA6MDB8MTAwMTY","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.8,"target":"LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10016,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10014,"event_id":4254,"slug":"4254-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 46 → 15 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.800116Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC44MDAxMTYrMDA6MDB8MTAwMTQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.7,"target":"LAS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":10014,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9916,"event_id":4347,"slug":"4347-las-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 51%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 51% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.942629Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy45NDI2MjkrMDA6MDB8OTkxNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":39.1,"target":"LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9916,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9836,"event_id":4348,"slug":"4348-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 11 cancellations among Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 24 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (47%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.430086Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS40MzAwODYrMDA6MDB8OTgzNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.2,"target":"LAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":24,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9836,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9753,"event_id":4309,"slug":"4309-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas arrivals running late: 92% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:28 PM and 9:28 PM PST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:28:09.634748Z","time":"9:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:28:00Z","time":"9:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:28:09.222200Z","time":"9:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNToyODowOS42MzQ3NDgrMDA6MDB8OTc1Mw","measurement":{"window":"8:28 PM–9:28 PM PST","n":12,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":290.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9753,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9636,"event_id":4171,"slug":"4171-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 14 among Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 60 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 26 → 14 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:56:14.267822Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:56:13.618508Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1NjoxNC4yNjc4MjIrMDA6MDB8OTYzNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.0,"target":"LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":60,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9636,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9619,"event_id":4228,"slug":"4228-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 6:21 PM and 7:21 PM PST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:21:30.201333Z","time":"7:21 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:21 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:21 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:21:00Z","time":"7:21 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:21 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:21 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:21:29.804371Z","time":"7:21 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:21 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:21 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzoyMTozMC4yMDEzMzMrMDA6MDB8OTYxOQ","measurement":{"window":"6:21 PM–7:21 PM PST","n":19,"late_n":19,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"39%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":289.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9619,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9581,"event_id":4202,"slug":"4202-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.535327Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy41MzUzMjcrMDA6MDB8OTU4MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":4.1,"target":"LAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":20,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9581,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9579,"event_id":4033,"slug":"4033-las-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 84%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"59% → 84% since the 3:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.525440Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy41MjU0NDArMDA6MDB8OTU3OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":25.8,"target":"LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":61,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9579,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9555,"event_id":4186,"slug":"4186-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:51:54.235141Z","time":"8:51 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:51 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:51 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:50:18.128000Z","time":"8:50 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:50 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:50 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMTo1MTo1NC4yMzUxNDErMDA6MDB8OTU1NQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9555,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11142026&advn=5","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9530,"event_id":4154,"slug":"4154-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 16 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.317814Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4zMTc4MTQrMDA6MDB8OTUzMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.3,"target":"LAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":59,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9530,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9529,"event_id":3873,"slug":"3873-las-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 81%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 59%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"81% → 81% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.313764Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4zMTM3NjQrMDA6MDB8OTUyOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"81%","expected_cancellations":16.3,"target":"LAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":59,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9529,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9369,"event_id":4018,"slug":"4018-las-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Las Vegas","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Las Vegas (LAS) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 2:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.242045Z","time":"2:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:48.360000Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.187331Z","time":"2:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjowMzo1MS4yNDIwNDUrMDA6MDB8OTM2OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9369,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9274,"event_id":4083,"slug":"4083-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 11 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 103 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.996621Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS45OTY2MjErMDA6MDB8OTI3NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.8,"target":"LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":103,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9274,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9272,"event_id":3872,"slug":"3872-las-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 85%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 85% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.985201Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS45ODUyMDErMDA6MDB8OTI3Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"85%","expected_cancellations":10.8,"target":"LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":103,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9272,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9204,"event_id":4017,"slug":"4017-las-ground-stop","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA no longer lists a ground stop at Las Vegas","body":"The ground stop for flights to Las Vegas (LAS) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 1:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.","what_changed":"ground stop no longer listed","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:03:58.915052Z","time":"1:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:25.447000Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:03:58.865505Z","time":"1:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTowMzo1OC45MTUwNTIrMDA6MDB8OTIwNA","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9204,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9117,"event_id":3994,"slug":"3994-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas departures back near normal: 26% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 11:27 AM and 12:27 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 43% at worst → 26% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:28.503950Z","time":"12:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:00Z","time":"12:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:27.665969Z","time":"12:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDoyNzoyOC41MDM5NTArMDA6MDB8OTExNw","measurement":{"window":"11:27 AM–12:27 PM PST","n":23,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"26%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9117,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9074,"event_id":3871,"slug":"3871-las-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 44%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 44%; calm-weather level 42%","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.217914Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4yMTc5MTQrMDA6MDB8OTA3NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":114,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9074,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8952,"event_id":3881,"slug":"3881-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 25 arrivals that landed between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 58% at worst → 0% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:04:37.600785Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:04:00Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:04:37.269351Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTowNDozNy42MDA3ODUrMDA6MDB8ODk1Mg","measurement":{"window":"6:04 AM–7:04 AM PST","n":25,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-13.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8952,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8854,"event_id":3893,"slug":"3893-las-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:03.281449Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:02.842857Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4yODE0NDkrMDA6MDB8ODg1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8854,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4yODE0NDkrMDA6MDB8ODg1NA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC45OTQ1OTIrMDA6MDB8MTAxMDU","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 16 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 9 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 16 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%

\n

What changed: 53% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 18 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 97 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 46 → 15 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 51%

\n

What changed: 40% → 51% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 11 cancellations among Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 24 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (47%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n LAS\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Las Vegas arrivals running late: 92% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:28 PM and 9:28 PM PST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:28 PM–9:28 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 14 among Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 26 → 14 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 60 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Las Vegas departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 19 departures that took off between 6:21 PM and 7:21 PM PST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:21 PM–7:21 PM PSTSample 19 flightsLate 100%Typical 39%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 84%

\n

What changed: 59% → 84% since the 3:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 84%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA advisory: “CNX NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n \n

The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 16 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 9 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 81%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 81%

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What changed: 81% → 81% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 59%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 81%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 11 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n Late report\n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

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\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists departure delays at Las Vegas

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What changed: departure delays no longer listed

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FAA-reported departure delays at Las Vegas (LAS) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 2:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model expects about 11 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 103 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

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Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 85%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 85%

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What changed: 57% → 85% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

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Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 85%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Ground stop\n LAS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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FAA no longer lists a ground stop at Las Vegas

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What changed: ground stop no longer listed

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The ground stop for flights to Las Vegas (LAS) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 1:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Ground stop\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n EST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n \n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
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FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n \n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 14 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Las Vegas departures back near normal: 26% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 43% at worst → 26% now

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Of 23 departures that took off between 11:27 AM and 12:27 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 11:27 AM–12:27 PM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 26%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 16 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 44%, near normal

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What changed: 50% → 44%; calm-weather level 42%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 44%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

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\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 20 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Las Vegas arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 58% at worst → 0% now

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Of 25 arrivals that landed between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:04 AM–7:04 AM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 23 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 31%, near normal

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What changed: 42% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 31%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"airport=LAS"}