Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 62 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 59%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
\n \nThe FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 62 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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FAA-reported departure delays at Las Vegas (LAS) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 2:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.
\n \nAdding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 103 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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The ground stop for flights to Las Vegas (LAS) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 1:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.
\n \nThe FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
\nThe FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Las Vegas (LAS), citing “EQ:FAA”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
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The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for Las Vegas (LAS), citing “wind”. Flights to LAS are held at their departure airports until 1:00 PM PST. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.
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Of 23 departures that took off between 11:27 AM and 12:27 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
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Of 29 departures that took off between 10:07 AM and 11:07 AM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Of 25 arrivals that landed between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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