{"items":[{"id":12575,"event_id":4976,"slug":"4976-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 10 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 109 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:56:27.999263Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:56:27.165075Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNDo1NjoyNy45OTkyNjMrMDA6MDB8MTI1NzU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.9,"target":"LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":109,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":12575,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12574,"event_id":4918,"slug":"4918-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 115 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:56:27.996248Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:56:27.165075Z","time":"6:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNDo1NjoyNy45OTYyNDgrMDA6MDB8MTI1NzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.4,"target":"LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":115,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":12574,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12491,"event_id":5136,"slug":"5136-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 8 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:25:49.707904Z","time":"6:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:25 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T14:25:48.718443Z","time":"6:25 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 6:25 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 14:25 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNDoyNTo0OS43MDc5MDQrMDA6MDB8MTI0OTE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":7.6,"target":"LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":100,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T13:00:00Z","time":"5:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 13:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":12491,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":12247,"event_id":4828,"slug":"4828-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Sunday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 129 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:56.020552Z","time":"3:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:56:55.592978Z","time":"3:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxMTo1Njo1Ni4wMjA1NTIrMDA6MDB8MTIyNDc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.4,"target":"LAS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":129,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 15","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":12247,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11635,"event_id":4810,"slug":"4810-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 27 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 4 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:22.227614Z","time":"7:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:57:21.263761Z","time":"7:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"12 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQwMzo1NzoyMi4yMjc2MTQrMDA6MDB8MTE2MzU","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":4.2,"target":"LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":27,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-15T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-15 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":11635,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":11331,"event_id":4534,"slug":"4534-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 93 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 19 → 25 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:56:11.291877Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:56:10.342678Z","time":"2:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQyMjo1NjoxMS4yOTE4NzcrMDA6MDB8MTEzMzE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":25.4,"target":"LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":93,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T22:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"18 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 22:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":7,"latest_update_id":11331,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":7,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10787,"event_id":4349,"slug":"4349-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 99 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 12 → 16 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:28.018416Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:56:26.729542Z","time":"8:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNjo1NjoyOC4wMTg0MTYrMDA6MDB8MTA3ODc","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":15.5,"target":"LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":99,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T16:00:00Z","time":"8:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 16:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":8,"latest_update_id":10787,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":8,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10572,"event_id":4368,"slug":"4368-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 97 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 33 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:10.072533Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:57:05.975812Z","time":"6:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"25 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxNDo1NzoxMC4wNzI1MzMrMDA6MDB8MTA1NzI","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":12.5,"target":"LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T14:00:00Z","time":"6:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 14:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":10572,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10351,"event_id":4254,"slug":"4254-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 35 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 35 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 35 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:09.959880Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T13:26:08.727627Z","time":"5:26 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"26 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 5:26 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 13:26 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMzoyNjowOS45NTk4ODArMDA6MDB8MTAzNTE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":34.6,"target":"LAS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.6,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T12:00:00Z","time":"4:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"28 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 12:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10351,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":6,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9836,"event_id":4348,"slug":"4348-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 11 cancellations among Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 24 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (47%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.430086Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"33 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS40MzAwODYrMDA6MDB8OTgzNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.2,"target":"LAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":24,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"34 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9836,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9636,"event_id":4171,"slug":"4171-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 14 among Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 60 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 26 → 14 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:56:14.267822Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:56:13.618508Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"36 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzo1NjoxNC4yNjc4MjIrMDA6MDB8OTYzNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.0,"target":"LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":60,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"37 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9636,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9530,"event_id":4154,"slug":"4154-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 16 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.317814Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"38 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4zMTc4MTQrMDA6MDB8OTUzMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":16.3,"target":"LAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":59,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9530,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9274,"event_id":4083,"slug":"4083-las-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 11 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 103 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.996621Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"42 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS45OTY2MjErMDA6MDB8OTI3NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.8,"target":"LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":103,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"43 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9274,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNVQxNDo1NjoyNy45OTkyNjMrMDA6MDB8MTI1NzU","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 10 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 109 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

\n

What changed: about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 115 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 15\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Sunday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 15\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Sunday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 129 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 12 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

\n

What changed: about 6 → 4 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 27 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 17 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 19 → 25 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 93 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~25 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (7)\n 6 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 23 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 12 → 16 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 99 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (8)\n 7 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 25 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 33 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 97 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 26 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 35 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 35 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 35 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~35 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n 5 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 33 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 11 cancellations among Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 24 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (47%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 36 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 14 among Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 26 → 14 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 60 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 38 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 16 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 59 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 42 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 11 cancellations among Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 103 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=LAS"}