{"items":[{"id":10104,"event_id":4396,"slug":"4396-las-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"53% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.989460Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"33 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC45ODk0NjArMDA6MDB8MTAxMDQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":7.5,"target":"LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10104,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9916,"event_id":4347,"slug":"4347-las-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 51%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"40% → 51% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.942629Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy45NDI2MjkrMDA6MDB8OTkxNg","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":39.1,"target":"LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9916,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9753,"event_id":4309,"slug":"4309-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas arrivals running late: 92% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:28 PM and 9:28 PM PST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:28:09.634748Z","time":"9:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:28 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:28:00Z","time":"9:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:28 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:28:09.222200Z","time":"9:28 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:28 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:28 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNToyODowOS42MzQ3NDgrMDA6MDB8OTc1Mw","measurement":{"window":"8:28 PM–9:28 PM PST","n":12,"late_n":11,"share_pct":"92%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":290.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9753,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9619,"event_id":4228,"slug":"4228-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 19 departures that took off between 6:21 PM and 7:21 PM PST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:21:30.201333Z","time":"7:21 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:21 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:21 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:21:00Z","time":"7:21 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:21 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:21 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T03:21:29.804371Z","time":"7:21 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:21 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 03:21 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMzoyMTozMC4yMDEzMzMrMDA6MDB8OTYxOQ","measurement":{"window":"6:21 PM–7:21 PM PST","n":19,"late_n":19,"share_pct":"100%","baseline_pct":"39%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":289.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9619,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9581,"event_id":4202,"slug":"4202-las-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.535327Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy41MzUzMjcrMDA6MDB8OTU4MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"49%","expected_cancellations":4.1,"target":"LAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":20,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9581,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9579,"event_id":4033,"slug":"4033-las-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 84%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"59% → 84% since the 3:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.525440Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy41MjU0NDArMDA6MDB8OTU3OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"84%","expected_cancellations":25.8,"target":"LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":61,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"9 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9579,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9529,"event_id":3873,"slug":"3873-las-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 81%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 59%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"81% → 81% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.313764Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"10 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4zMTM3NjQrMDA6MDB8OTUyOQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"81%","expected_cancellations":16.3,"target":"LAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":59,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9529,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9369,"event_id":4018,"slug":"4018-las-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA no longer lists departure delays at Las Vegas","body":"FAA-reported departure delays at Las Vegas (LAS) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 2:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.","what_changed":"departure delays no longer listed","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.242045Z","time":"2:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:00:48.360000Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:03:51.187331Z","time":"2:03 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:03 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:03 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjowMzo1MS4yNDIwNDUrMDA6MDB8OTM2OQ","lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9369,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9272,"event_id":3872,"slug":"3872-las-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 85%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"57% → 85% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.985201Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"13 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS45ODUyMDErMDA6MDB8OTI3Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"85%","expected_cancellations":10.8,"target":"LAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":103,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"14 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9272,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9117,"event_id":3994,"slug":"3994-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas departures back near normal: 26% late in the last hour","body":"Of 23 departures that took off between 11:27 AM and 12:27 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 43% at worst → 26% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:28.503950Z","time":"12:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:00Z","time":"12:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:27:27.665969Z","time":"12:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"15 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDoyNzoyOC41MDM5NTArMDA6MDB8OTExNw","measurement":{"window":"11:27 AM–12:27 PM PST","n":23,"late_n":6,"share_pct":"26%","baseline_pct":"22%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9117,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9074,"event_id":3871,"slug":"3871-las-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 44%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 44%; calm-weather level 42%","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.217914Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"16 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4yMTc5MTQrMDA6MDB8OTA3NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":1.5,"target":"LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":114,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"17 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9074,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8952,"event_id":3881,"slug":"3881-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 25 arrivals that landed between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 58% at worst → 0% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:04:37.600785Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:04 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:04:00Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:04 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T15:04:37.269351Z","time":"7:04 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"20 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:04 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 15:04 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxNTowNDozNy42MDA3ODUrMDA6MDB8ODk1Mg","measurement":{"window":"6:04 AM–7:04 AM PST","n":25,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-13.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8952,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8854,"event_id":3893,"slug":"3893-las-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 31%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"42% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:03.281449Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:57:02.842857Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"23 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxMTo1NzowMy4yODE0NDkrMDA6MDB8ODg1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"31%","expected_cancellations":1.3,"target":"LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":107,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"24 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8854,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8702,"event_id":3801,"slug":"3801-las-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 55%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 55%; calm-weather level 49%","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:55:56.087494Z","time":"8:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:55:52.327176Z","time":"8:55 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"30 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:55 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QwNDo1NTo1Ni4wODc0OTQrMDA6MDB8ODcwMg","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":0.9,"target":"LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":0.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":58,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"31 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8702,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8378,"event_id":3649,"slug":"3649-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas departures back near normal: 10% late in the last hour","body":"Of 30 departures that took off between 10:16 AM and 11:16 AM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 65% at worst → 10% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:16:18.292904Z","time":"11:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:16:00Z","time":"11:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:16 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T19:16:17.898807Z","time":"11:16 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"40 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 11:16 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 19:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxOToxNjoxOC4yOTI5MDQrMDA6MDB8ODM3OA","measurement":{"window":"10:16 AM–11:16 AM PST","n":30,"late_n":3,"share_pct":"10%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-4.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":8378,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8306,"event_id":3619,"slug":"3619-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 27 departures that took off between 5:49 AM and 6:49 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 67% at worst → 0% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-12T14:49:31.387007Z","time":"6:49 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:49 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 14:49 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-12T14:49:00Z","time":"6:49 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:49 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 14:49 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-12T14:49:31.075093Z","time":"6:49 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 12","ago":"44 h ago","full":"Thu Nov 12, 6:49 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-12 14:49 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMlQxNDo0OTozMS4zODcwMDcrMDA6MDB8ODMwNg","measurement":{"window":"5:49 AM–6:49 AM PST","n":27,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"6%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":2.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8306,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8093,"event_id":3527,"slug":"3527-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 18 arrivals that landed between 6:33 AM and 7:33 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 77% at worst → 0% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:33:15.456103Z","time":"7:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:33 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:33:00Z","time":"7:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:33 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T15:33:14.756850Z","time":"7:33 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 7:33 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 15:33 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNTozMzoxNS40NTYxMDMrMDA6MDB8ODA5Mw","measurement":{"window":"6:33 AM–7:33 AM PST","n":18,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-6.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":8093,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":8089,"event_id":3531,"slug":"3531-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas departures back near normal: 5% late in the last hour","body":"Of 22 departures that took off between 5:58 AM and 6:58 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 59% at worst → 5% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-10T14:58:03.482453Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 6:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 14:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-10T14:58:00Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 6:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 14:58 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-10T14:58:02.135406Z","time":"6:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 10","ago":"3 days ago","full":"Tue Nov 10, 6:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-10 14:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xMFQxNDo1ODowMy40ODI0NTMrMDA6MDB8ODA4OQ","measurement":{"window":"5:58 AM–6:58 AM PST","n":22,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"5%","baseline_pct":"6%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":0.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":8089,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7867,"event_id":3427,"slug":"3427-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas arrivals back near normal: 3% late in the last hour","body":"Of 29 arrivals that landed between 5:59 AM and 6:59 AM PST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 47% at worst → 3% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:59:21.064967Z","time":"6:59 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:59 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:59 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:59:00Z","time":"6:59 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:59 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:59 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:59:20.411291Z","time":"6:59 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:59 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:59 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNDo1OToyMS4wNjQ5NjcrMDA6MDB8Nzg2Nw","measurement":{"window":"5:59 AM–6:59 AM PST","n":29,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"3%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-17.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7867,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7866,"event_id":3403,"slug":"3403-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas departures back near normal: 5% late in the last hour","body":"Of 20 departures that took off between 5:55 AM and 6:55 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 64% at worst → 5% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:55:10.877168Z","time":"6:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:55:00Z","time":"6:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-09T14:55:10.132448Z","time":"6:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 9","ago":"4 days ago","full":"Mon Nov 9, 6:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-09 14:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wOVQxNDo1NToxMC44NzcxNjgrMDA6MDB8Nzg2Ng","measurement":{"window":"5:55 AM–6:55 AM PST","n":20,"late_n":1,"share_pct":"5%","baseline_pct":"6%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7866,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7557,"event_id":3258,"slug":"3258-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 arrivals that landed between 5:55 AM and 6:55 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 50% at worst → 0% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:55:01.658867Z","time":"6:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:55 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:55:00Z","time":"6:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:55 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T14:55:01.339181Z","time":"6:55 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 7","ago":"6 days ago","full":"Sat Nov 7, 6:55 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 14:55 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QxNDo1NTowMS42NTg4NjcrMDA6MDB8NzU1Nw","measurement":{"window":"5:55 AM–6:55 AM PST","n":21,"late_n":0,"share_pct":"0%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-23.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7557,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":7421,"event_id":3222,"slug":"3222-las-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 61%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"66% → 61%; calm-weather level 55%","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:56:41.753259Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:56:40.693783Z","time":"7:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wN1QwMzo1Njo0MS43NTMyNTkrMDA6MDB8NzQyMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"61%","expected_cancellations":1.1,"target":"LAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":89,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-07T03:00:00Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-07 03:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":7421,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6931,"event_id":3000,"slug":"3000-las-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Las Vegas departures back near normal: 6% late in the last hour","body":"Of 31 departures that took off between 5:48 AM and 6:48 AM PST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 64% at worst → 6% now","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:48:05.072419Z","time":"6:48 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:48 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:48 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:48:00Z","time":"6:48 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:48 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:48 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-06T14:48:04.780239Z","time":"6:48 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 6","ago":"7 days ago","full":"Fri Nov 6, 6:48 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-06 14:48 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNlQxNDo0ODowNS4wNzI0MTkrMDA6MDB8NjkzMQ","measurement":{"window":"5:48 AM–6:48 AM PST","n":31,"late_n":2,"share_pct":"6%","baseline_pct":"6%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":-1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":6931,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6592,"event_id":2867,"slug":"2867-las-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 34%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 164 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"52% → 34%; calm-weather level 34%","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T11:56:07.935884Z","time":"3:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T11:56:05.421534Z","time":"3:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxMTo1NjowNy45MzU4ODQrMDA6MDB8NjU5Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"34%","expected_cancellations":0.5,"target":"LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":164,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6592,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":6591,"event_id":2866,"slug":"2866-las-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Thursday to 22%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 162 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 22%; calm-weather level 21%","airports":["LAS"],"metros":[],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-05T11:56:07.919893Z","time":"3:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 11:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-05T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-05T11:56:05.421534Z","time":"3:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"8 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 11:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxMTo1NjowNy45MTk4OTMrMDA6MDB8NjU5MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"22%","expected_cancellations":0.4,"target":"LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":162,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-05T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 5","ago":"9 days ago","full":"Thu Nov 5, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-05 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":6591,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0wNVQxMTo1NjowNy45MTk4OTMrMDA6MDB8NjU5MQ","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC45ODk0NjArMDA6MDB8MTAxMDQ","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 33 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%

\n

What changed: 53% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 51%

\n

What changed: 40% → 51% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n LAS\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

Las Vegas arrivals running late: 92% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:28 PM and 9:28 PM PST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 8:28 PM–9:28 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n New\n \n \n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Las Vegas departures running late: 100% left 15+ min late in the last hour

\n \n \n

Of 19 departures that took off between 6:21 PM and 7:21 PM PST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 6:21 PM–7:21 PM PSTSample 19 flightsLate 100%Typical 39%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 8 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 84%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 84%

\n

What changed: 59% → 84% since the 3:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 84%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 10 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 81%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 81%

\n

What changed: 81% → 81% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 59%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 81%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA no longer lists departure delays at Las Vegas

\n

What changed: departure delays no longer listed

\n \n

FAA-reported departure delays at Las Vegas (LAS) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 2:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 13 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 85%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 85%

\n

What changed: 57% → 85% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 85%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 15 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Las Vegas departures back near normal: 26% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 43% at worst → 26% now

\n \n

Of 23 departures that took off between 11:27 AM and 12:27 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 11:27 AM–12:27 PM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 26%Typical 22%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 16 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 44%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 44%, near normal

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What changed: 50% → 44%; calm-weather level 42%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 44%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 20 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Las Vegas arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 58% at worst → 0% now

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Of 25 arrivals that landed between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:04 AM–7:04 AM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 23 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 31%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 31%, near normal

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What changed: 42% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 31%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 30 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 55%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 55%, near normal

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What changed: 58% → 55%; calm-weather level 49%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 55%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 40 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Las Vegas departures back near normal: 10% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 65% at worst → 10% now

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Of 30 departures that took off between 10:16 AM and 11:16 AM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 10:16 AM–11:16 AM PSTSample 30 flightsLate 10%Typical 19%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 12\n 44 h ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Las Vegas departures back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 67% at worst → 0% now

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Of 27 departures that took off between 5:49 AM and 6:49 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 5:49 AM–6:49 AM PSTSample 27 flightsLate 0%Typical 6%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Las Vegas arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 77% at worst → 0% now

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Of 18 arrivals that landed between 6:33 AM and 7:33 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 6:33 AM–7:33 AM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 10\n 3 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Las Vegas departures back near normal: 5% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 59% at worst → 5% now

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Of 22 departures that took off between 5:58 AM and 6:58 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 5:58 AM–6:58 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 5%Typical 6%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Las Vegas arrivals back near normal: 3% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 47% at worst → 3% now

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Of 29 arrivals that landed between 5:59 AM and 6:59 AM PST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 5:59 AM–6:59 AM PSTSample 29 flightsLate 3%Typical 21%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 9\n 4 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Las Vegas departures back near normal: 5% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 64% at worst → 5% now

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Of 20 departures that took off between 5:55 AM and 6:55 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 5:55 AM–6:55 AM PSTSample 20 flightsLate 5%Typical 6%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 7\n 6 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n arrivals\n \n \n
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Las Vegas arrivals back near normal: 0% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 50% at worst → 0% now

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Of 21 arrivals that landed between 5:55 AM and 6:55 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 5:55 AM–6:55 AM PSTSample 21 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 61%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 61%, near normal

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What changed: 66% → 61%; calm-weather level 55%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 61%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 6\n 7 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Observed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Recovery\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Las Vegas departures back near normal: 6% late in the last hour

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What changed: late share 64% at worst → 6% now

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Of 31 departures that took off between 5:48 AM and 6:48 AM PST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

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Window 5:48 AM–6:48 AM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 6%Typical 6%

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\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 5\n 8 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 34%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 34%, near normal

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What changed: 52% → 34%; calm-weather level 34%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 164 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 34%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n
\n","\n\n\n
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\n \n PST, Nov 5\n 8 days ago\n
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\n \n
\n Forecast 22%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAS\n departures\n \n \n
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Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Thursday to 22%, near normal

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What changed: 44% → 22%; calm-weather level 21%

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Tailodds’ model gives the 162 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

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Probability 22%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LAS\n \n \n
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\n"],"filters":"type=delay&airport=LAS"}