{"items":[{"id":10174,"event_id":4388,"slug":"4388-lax-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 46%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"60% → 46% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.033128Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4wMzMxMjgrMDA6MDB8MTAxNzQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"46%","expected_cancellations":8.1,"target":"LAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":115,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10174,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10173,"event_id":4342,"slug":"4342-lax-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 48%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 170 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"58% → 48% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.029264Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4wMjkyNjQrMDA6MDB8MTAxNzM","forecast":{"p_pct":"48%","expected_cancellations":12.8,"target":"LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":170,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10173,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10172,"event_id":4291,"slug":"4291-lax-delays","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 30%, near normal","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 AM Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"49% → 30%; calm-weather level 15%","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.026345Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:33.650227Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMTo1NzozNC4wMjYzNDUrMDA6MDB8MTAxNzI","forecast":{"p_pct":"30%","expected_cancellations":7.9,"target":"LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:00:00Z","time":"3:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":10172,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10071,"event_id":4196,"slug":"4196-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 11 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.382286Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4zODIyODYrMDA6MDB8MTAwNzE","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.8,"target":"LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10071,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":10070,"event_id":4388,"slug":"4388-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"51% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.376636Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:03.681414Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQxMDo1NjowNC4zNzY2MzYrMDA6MDB8MTAwNzA","forecast":{"p_pct":"60%","expected_cancellations":7.8,"target":"LAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":9.1,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":115,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:00:00Z","time":"2:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10174,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10174,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 46%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.033128Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9999,"event_id":4389,"slug":"4389-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among LAX departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 115 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.651545Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC42NTE1NDUrMDA6MDB8OTk5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.2,"target":"LAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":115,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9999,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9998,"event_id":4196,"slug":"4196-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.645106Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC42NDUxMDYrMDA6MDB8OTk5OA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.1,"target":"LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10071,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10071,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.382286Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9997,"event_id":4388,"slug":"4388-lax-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 51% delay risk for LAX departures noon–3 PM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:30.637983Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:58:29.779944Z","time":"1:58 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:58 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo1ODozMC42Mzc5ODMrMDA6MDB8OTk5Nw","forecast":{"p_pct":"51%","expected_cancellations":6.2,"target":"LAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":115,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:00:00Z","time":"1:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10174,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10174,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 46%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.033128Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9990,"event_id":4357,"slug":"4357-lax-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at LAX","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for LAX (LAX) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 12:53 AM PST. The latest, at 1:41 AM PST, reports ceiling 1000 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 5 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:49:55.538974Z","time":"1:49 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:49 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:49 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:41:00Z","time":"1:41 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:41 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:49:54.241496Z","time":"1:49 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:49 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:49 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwOTo0OTo1NS41Mzg5NzQrMDA6MDB8OTk5MA","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","1:41 AM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KLAX 140941Z 30005KT 10SM SCT006 BKN010 BKN140 18/14 A2980 RMK AO2 RAE05 P0000 T01780144"],["Station","KLAX at Sat Nov 14, 1:41 AM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9990,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KLAX&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9901,"event_id":4315,"slug":"4315-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 12 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 169 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 24 → 12 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.406078Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy40MDYwNzgrMDA6MDB8OTkwMQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":11.7,"target":"LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":169,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9901,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9900,"event_id":4196,"slug":"4196-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 109 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 22 → 10 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.397812Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy4zOTc4MTIrMDA6MDB8OTkwMA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":9.9,"target":"LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":109,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":6,"latest_update_id":10071,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10071,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T10:56:04.382286Z","time":"2:56 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 2:56 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 10:56 UTC"}}},{"id":9899,"event_id":4342,"slug":"4342-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 58%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 169 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 58% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.370949Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:03.729660Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwODoyNzowNy4zNzA5NDkrMDA6MDB8OTg5OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":11.7,"target":"LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":169,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:00:00Z","time":"11:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10173,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10173,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 48%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.029264Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9876,"event_id":4357,"slug":"4357-lax-weather","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at LAX","body":"The 11:53 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for LAX (LAX) reports rain; mist, ceiling 1500 ft, visibility 2 mi, wind 4 kt. Coded weather: “RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:58:36.855801Z","time":"11:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:53:00Z","time":"11:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:58:36.214607Z","time":"11:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNzo1ODozNi44NTU4MDErMDA6MDB8OTg3Ng","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","11:53 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","METAR KLAX 140753Z 15004KT 2SM RA BR SCT009 OVC015 17/15 A2981 RMK AO2 RAB34 SLP092 P0002 T01670150 402060161"],["Station","KLAX at Fri Nov 13, 11:53 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9990,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KLAX&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9990,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at LAX","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T09:49:55.538974Z","time":"1:49 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 1:49 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 09:49 UTC"}}},{"id":9875,"event_id":3973,"slug":"3973-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX departure delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour","body":"Of 21 departures that took off between 10:42 PM and 11:42 PM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 59% → 71%","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:42:19.863521Z","time":"11:42 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:42 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:42 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:42:00Z","time":"11:42 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:42 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:42 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:42:19.755966Z","time":"11:42 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:42 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:42 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNzo0MjoxOS44NjM1MjErMDA6MDB8OTg3NQ","measurement":{"window":"10:42 PM–11:42 PM PST","n":21,"late_n":15,"share_pct":"71%","baseline_pct":"21%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":65.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9875,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9873,"event_id":3973,"slug":"3973-lax-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX departure delays ease: 59% late in the last hour, still above normal","body":"Of 17 departures that took off between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":"late share 69% → 59%","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:22:01.140136Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:22 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:22 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:22:00Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:22 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:22 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:22:01.018769Z","time":"11:22 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:22 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:22 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNzoyMjowMS4xNDAxMzYrMDA6MDB8OTg3Mw","measurement":{"window":"10:22 PM–11:22 PM PST","n":17,"late_n":10,"share_pct":"59%","baseline_pct":"20%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":15.0},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9875,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9875,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Major","headline":"LAX departure delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T07:42:19.863521Z","time":"11:42 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 11:42 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 07:42 UTC"}}},{"id":9815,"event_id":4315,"slug":"4315-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 24 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 168 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 24 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.274397Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS4yNzQzOTcrMDA6MDB8OTgxNQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":24.1,"target":"LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":168,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9901,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9901,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Updated model now expects about 12 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T08:27:07.406078Z","time":"12:27 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 12:27 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 08:27 UTC"}}},{"id":9814,"event_id":4342,"slug":"4342-lax-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 50% delay risk for LAX departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 168 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:41.270308Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:57:38.573134Z","time":"10:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNjo1Nzo0MS4yNzAzMDgrMDA6MDB8OTgxNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"50%","expected_cancellations":24.1,"target":"LAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":168,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T06:00:00Z","time":"10:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 06:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":10173,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":10173,"kind":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Significant","headline":"Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 48%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T11:57:34.029264Z","time":"3:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 14","ago":"30 min ago","full":"Sat Nov 14, 3:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 11:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9763,"event_id":4315,"slug":"4315-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 14 cancellations among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 168 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). 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This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"54% → 56% since the 8:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.759525Z","time":"9:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:56:35.362127Z","time":"9:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNTo1NjozNS43NTk1MjUrMDA6MDB8OTc2Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":7.6,"target":"LAX departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":37,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:00:00Z","time":"9:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9762,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9751,"event_id":4284,"slug":"4284-lax-weather","kind":"resolution","kind_label":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"weather","type_label":"Weather","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at LAX","body":"No official weather observation (METAR) for LAX (LAX) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 8:26 PM PST. The latest, at 8:53 PM PST, reports light rain; mist, ceiling 2100 ft, visibility 4 mi, wind 3 kt.","what_changed":"low cloud or visibility → no longer reported","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:18:00.656727Z","time":"9:18 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:18 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:18 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:53:00Z","time":"8:53 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:53 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:53 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:18:00.137198Z","time":"9:18 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:18 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:18 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNToxODowMC42NTY3MjcrMDA6MDB8OTc1MQ","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","8:53 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","METAR KLAX 140453Z 13003KT 4SM -RA BR SCT016 BKN021 OVC035 17/15 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP094 P0009 T01670150"],["Station","KLAX at Fri Nov 13, 8:53 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9751,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KLAX&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9706,"event_id":4196,"slug":"4196-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 22 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 108 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. 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Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:35:07.820687Z","time":"8:35 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:35 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:26:00Z","time":"8:26 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:26 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:26 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:35:06.454377Z","time":"8:35 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:35 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"weather weather-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDozNTowNy44MjA2ODcrMDA6MDB8OTY5Mg","measure":{"chips":[["Observed","8:26 PM PST"]],"rows":[["Latest observation","SPECI KLAX 140426Z 15005KT 2 1/2SM R25L/4500VP6000FT -RA BR SCT014 BKN019 OVC034 17/15 A2982 RMK AO2 VIS SW-W 1 P0005 T01670150"],["Station","KLAX at Fri Nov 13, 8:26 PM PST"],["Basis","Official observation (METAR)"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9751,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center","url":"https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KLAX&format=raw&hours=3","role":"primary","source":"noaa_metar"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9751,"kind":"Resolution","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at LAX","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T05:18:00.656727Z","time":"9:18 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 9:18 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 05:18 UTC"}}},{"id":9690,"event_id":4165,"slug":"4165-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX arrival delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour","body":"Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:28 PM and 8:28 PM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). 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\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 30 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 46%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 46%

\n

What changed: 60% → 46% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 46%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 30 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 48%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 48%

\n

What changed: 58% → 48% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 170 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 48%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 30 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 30%\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 30%, near normal

\n

What changed: 49% → 30%; calm-weather level 15%

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 AM Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 30%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 11 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 60%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%

\n

What changed: 51% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 60%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among LAX departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 115 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 10 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 51%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for LAX departures noon–3 PM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 51%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n LAX\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at LAX

\n

What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

\n \n

No official weather observation (METAR) for LAX (LAX) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 12:53 AM PST. The latest, at 1:41 AM PST, reports ceiling 1000 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 5 kt.

\n \n

Observed 1:41 AM PST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 12 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 24 → 12 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 169 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 22 → 10 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 109 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 14\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 58%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 58%

\n

What changed: 50% → 58% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 169 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 58%Horizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n \n Weather\n LAX\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at LAX

\n \n \n

The 11:53 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for LAX (LAX) reports rain; mist, ceiling 1500 ft, visibility 2 mi, wind 4 kt. Coded weather: “RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.

\n \n

Observed 11:53 PM PST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 4 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

LAX departure delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 59% → 71%

\n \n

Of 21 departures that took off between 10:42 PM and 11:42 PM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:42 PM–11:42 PM PSTSample 21 flightsLate 71%Typical 21%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Significant\n Developing\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

LAX departure delays ease: 59% late in the last hour, still above normal

\n

What changed: late share 69% → 59%

\n \n

Of 17 departures that took off between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 10:22 PM–11:22 PM PSTSample 17 flightsLate 59%Typical 20%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (4)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 24 among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n

What changed: about 14 → 24 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 168 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~24 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 5 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 50%\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for LAX departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 168 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 50%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Significant\n Developing\n \n \n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 14 cancellations among LAX departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 168 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 11.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 6 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 56%\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises LAX departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 56%

\n

What changed: 54% → 56% since the 8:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from LAX midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 56%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n Resolution\n Weather\n LAX\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at LAX

\n

What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported

\n \n

No official weather observation (METAR) for LAX (LAX) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 8:26 PM PST. The latest, at 8:53 PM PST, reports light rain; mist, ceiling 2100 ft, visibility 4 mi, wind 3 kt.

\n \n

Observed 8:53 PM PST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 22 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 22 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 108 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~22 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (6)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 49%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 AM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 49%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (2)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 54%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n De-escalation\n Delay\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model lowers LAX departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 54%

\n

What changed: 56% → 54% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from LAX midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 54%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Informational\n Resolved\n \n \n Weather\n LAX\n arrivals and departures\n \n \n
\n

Official observation reports low cloud or visibility at LAX

\n \n \n

The 8:26 PM PST official weather observation (METAR) for LAX (LAX) reports light rain; mist, ceiling 1900 ft, visibility 2.5 mi, wind 5 kt. Coded weather: “-RA BR”. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.

\n \n

Observed 8:26 PM PST

\n \n \n
\n Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗\n Timeline (2)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Observed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LAX\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

LAX arrival delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour

\n

What changed: late share 57% → 77%

\n \n

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:28 PM and 8:28 PM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

\n \n

Window 7:28 PM–8:28 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 77%Typical 19%

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules\n Timeline (2)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"airport=LAX&mode=all"}