{"items":[{"id":9524,"event_id":4113,"slug":"4113-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday at 56%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from LAX midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"44% → 56% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.271296Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yNzEyOTYrMDA6MDB8OTUyNA","forecast":{"p_pct":"56%","expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"LAX departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":6.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":35,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9524,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9523,"event_id":4073,"slug":"4073-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 99 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 10 → 15 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.263253Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yNjMyNTMrMDA6MDB8OTUyMw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.6,"target":"LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":3.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":99,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9523,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9522,"event_id":4072,"slug":"4072-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among LAX departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 39 of the 111 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 24 → 39 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.257836Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yNTc4MzYrMDA6MDB8OTUyMg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":38.6,"target":"LAX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":111,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9522,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9511,"event_id":4165,"slug":"4165-lax-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 14 arrivals that landed between 3:42 PM and 4:42 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:42:28.297132Z","time":"4:42 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:42 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:42 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:42:00Z","time":"4:42 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"57 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:42 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:42 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:42:28.160213Z","time":"4:42 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"56 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:42 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:42 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDo0MjoyOC4yOTcxMzIrMDA6MDB8OTUxMQ","measurement":{"window":"3:42 PM–4:42 PM PST","n":14,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"57%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":20.0},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9511,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9507,"event_id":4163,"slug":"4163-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:01:30.036043Z","time":"7:01 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:01 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:01 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:21.228000Z","time":"7:00 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"historical":true,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMDowMTozMC4wMzYwNDMrMDA6MDB8OTUwNw","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9507,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=120","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9472,"event_id":4073,"slug":"4073-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 99 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.378400Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS4zNzg0MDArMDA6MDB8OTQ3Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":10.0,"target":"LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":99,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9523,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9523,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.263253Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"}}},{"id":9471,"event_id":4072,"slug":"4072-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 24 among LAX departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 115 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 14 → 24 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.371910Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS4zNzE5MTArMDA6MDB8OTQ3MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":23.8,"target":"LAX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":115,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9522,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9522,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among LAX departures 6–9 PM Friday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.257836Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"}}},{"id":9470,"event_id":3861,"slug":"3861-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"70% → 82% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.366887Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:18.729595Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMzo1NzoxOS4zNjY4ODcrMDA6MDB8OTQ3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"82%","expected_cancellations":10.0,"target":"LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":99,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:00:00Z","time":"3:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9470,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9395,"event_id":4013,"slug":"4013-lax-delays","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour","body":"Of 32 arrivals that landed between 1:30 PM and 2:30 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.","what_changed":"late share 48% at worst → 25% now","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:30:41.368422Z","time":"2:30 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:30 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:30 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:30:00Z","time":"2:30 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:30 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:30 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:30:41.088835Z","time":"2:30 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:30 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:30 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMjozMDo0MS4zNjg0MjIrMDA6MDB8OTM5NQ","measurement":{"window":"1:30 PM–2:30 PM PST","n":32,"late_n":8,"share_pct":"25%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":1.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9395,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9361,"event_id":4113,"slug":"4113-lax-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 44% delay risk for LAX departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from LAX midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:58:55.320609Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:58 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:58:53.714067Z","time":"1:58 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:58 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:58 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1ODo1NS4zMjA2MDkrMDA6MDB8OTM2MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"44%","expected_cancellations":0.8,"target":"LAX departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":33,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9524,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9524,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday at 56%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.271296Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"}}},{"id":9360,"event_id":3986,"slug":"3986-lax-taxi-in","kind":"recovery","kind_label":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"info","severity_label":"Informational","severity_rank":1,"event_type":"gate_congestion","type_label":"Slow taxi-in","headline":"LAX arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 17+ min","body":"Of 29 aircraft that landed at LAX (LAX) between 12:41 PM and 1:41 PM PST and have reached the ramp, 2 took 17 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.8 minutes; the median was 5.1 minutes. Usually 9% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 17% for 32 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.","what_changed":"slow share 34% at worst → 7% now","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:51.800695Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:41:00Z","time":"1:41 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:41 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo1MS44MDA2OTUrMDA6MDB8OTM2MA","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","12:41 PM–1:41 PM PST"],["Sample","29 arrivals"],["Slow","7%"],["Usually","9%"]],"rows":[["Landings","12:41 PM–1:41 PM PST · 29 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","2 (7%) took 17+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","9% usually · typical taxi-in 6.8 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","5.1 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9360,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9255,"event_id":4073,"slug":"4073-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 6 cancellations among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.855776Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS44NTU3NzYrMDA6MDB8OTI1NQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":5.9,"target":"LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9523,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9523,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.263253Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"}}},{"id":9254,"event_id":4072,"slug":"4072-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 14 cancellations among LAX departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 115 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.853216Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS44NTMyMTYrMDA6MDB8OTI1NA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":14.0,"target":"LAX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":115,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9522,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9522,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among LAX departures 6–9 PM Friday","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.257836Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"11 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"}}},{"id":9253,"event_id":4071,"slug":"4071-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 19 cancellations among LAX departures 3–6 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 110 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.850609Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS44NTA2MDkrMDA6MDB8OTI1Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":18.8,"target":"LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9253,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9252,"event_id":3861,"slug":"3861-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 70%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"52% → 70% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.848119Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS44NDgxMTkrMDA6MDB8OTI1Mg","forecast":{"p_pct":"70%","expected_cancellations":5.9,"target":"LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":7.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9470,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9470,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.366887Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9251,"event_id":3830,"slug":"3830-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LAX departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 88%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Friday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 88% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.845504Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS44NDU1MDQrMDA6MDB8OTI1MQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"88%","expected_cancellations":14.0,"target":"LAX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":4.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":115,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9251,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9250,"event_id":3776,"slug":"3776-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LAX departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 91%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Friday an average 91% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"56% → 91% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.842094Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS44NDIwOTQrMDA6MDB8OTI1MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"91%","expected_cancellations":18.8,"target":"LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9250,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9199,"event_id":4051,"slug":"4051-ground-stop","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:59:51.502483Z","time":"3:59 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:59 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:59 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:57:28.498000Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1OTo1MS41MDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTE5OQ","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9199,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=111","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9196,"event_id":4048,"slug":"4048-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”","body":"The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.","what_changed":null,"airports":[],"metros":[],"direction":"both","direction_label":"arrivals and departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:45.215014Z","time":"3:56 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":null,"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:52:58.693000Z","time":"3:52 PM","zone":"EST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:52 PM EST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:52 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_advisories faa-advisories-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1Njo0NS4yMTUwMTQrMDA6MDB8OTE5Ng","lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9196,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"FAA ATCSCC advisory","url":"https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis?adv_date=11132026&advn=108","role":"primary","source":"faa_advisory"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9163,"event_id":3861,"slug":"3861-lax-delays","kind":"de-escalation","kind_label":"De-escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 52%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"55% → 52% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:17.254991Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:56:15.585760Z","time":"12:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo1NjoxNy4yNTQ5OTErMDA6MDB8OTE2Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":"52%","expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":8.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:00:00Z","time":"12:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9470,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9470,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.366887Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9137,"event_id":4013,"slug":"4013-lax-delays","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX arrivals running late: 41% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour","body":"Of 39 arrivals that landed between 11:41 AM and 12:41 PM PST, 16 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:41:51.492639Z","time":"12:41 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:41 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:41 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:41:00Z","time":"12:41 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:41 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:41 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T20:41:51.174546Z","time":"12:41 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"4 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 12:41 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 20:41 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"observed_ops observed-ops-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMDo0MTo1MS40OTI2MzkrMDA6MDB8OTEzNw","measurement":{"window":"11:41 AM–12:41 PM PST","n":39,"late_n":16,"share_pct":"41%","baseline_pct":"19%","baseline_basis":"US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals","method":"FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)","median_delay_min":9.0},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9395,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_observed"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9395,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"LAX arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T22:30:41.368422Z","time":"2:30 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 2:30 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 22:30 UTC"}}},{"id":9070,"event_id":3861,"slug":"3861-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 55%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"50% → 55% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.178923Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4xNzg5MjMrMDA6MDB8OTA3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":"55%","expected_cancellations":2.1,"target":"LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":10.0,"model_version":"famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":9470,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9470,"kind":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","severity_label":"Major","headline":"Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T23:57:19.366887Z","time":"3:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 3:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 23:57 UTC"}}},{"id":9069,"event_id":3726,"slug":"3726-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 58%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 126 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":"45% → 58% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:34.169357Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:57:33.042090Z","time":"10:57 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"6 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:57 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODo1NzozNC4xNjkzNTcrMDA6MDB8OTA2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":"58%","expected_cancellations":2.7,"target":"LAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":1.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":126,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:00:00Z","time":"10:00 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9069,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9066,"event_id":3973,"slug":"3973-lax-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","evidence_help":"Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"LAX departure delays worsen: 69% late in the last hour","body":"Of 39 departures that took off between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM PST, 27 left at least 15 minutes late. 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Usually 9% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:35:06.752082Z","time":"10:35 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:35 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:35 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:20:00Z","time":"10:20 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:20 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:20 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T18:35:04.869985Z","time":"10:35 AM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 10:35 AM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 18:35 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"taxi_in taxi-in-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODozNTowNi43NTIwODIrMDA6MDB8OTA2NA","measure":{"chips":[["Landed","9:20 AM–10:20 AM PST"],["Sample","29 arrivals"],["Slow","34%"],["Usually","9%"]],"rows":[["Landings","9:20 AM–10:20 AM PST · 29 reached the ramp"],["Slow to the ramp","10 (34%) took 17+ min from touchdown"],["Comparison","9% usually · typical taxi-in 6.8 min · this airport, the last 7 days"],["Median this window","11.4 min"],["Method","FAA surface surveillance (SWIM surface movement events): touchdown to the first ramp entry, same callsign"]]},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":9360,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_taxi_in"}],"corrections":[],"newer":{"id":9360,"kind":"Recovery","evidence":"observed","evidence_label":"Observed","severity_label":"Informational","headline":"LAX arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 17+ min","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:51.800695Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"}}}],"next_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QxODozNTowNi43NTIwODIrMDA6MDB8OTA2NA","top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yNzEyOTYrMDA6MDB8OTUyNA","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday at 56%

\n ▲ 44% → 56% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n ▲ about 10 → 15 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among LAX departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ▲ about 24 → 39 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n LAX\n ARR\n DELAY\n NEW\n \n

LAX arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 57% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW · LATE\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n ▲ about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 24 among LAX departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ▲ about 14 → 24 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%

\n ▲ 70% → 82% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n LAX\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

LAX arrivals back near normal: 25% late in the last hour

\n late share 48% at worst → 25% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for LAX departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

\n 44% risk\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Informational\n LAX\n ARR\n TAXI-IN\n RESOLVED\n \n

LAX arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 17+ min

\n slow share 34% at worst → 7% now\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LAX\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model expects about 6 cancellations among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n ~6 cancellations\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n CANCEL\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model expects about 14 cancellations among LAX departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n ~14 cancellations\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n CANCEL\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model expects about 19 cancellations among LAX departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n ~19 cancellations\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 70%

\n ▲ 52% → 70% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Model raises LAX departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 88%

\n ▲ 55% → 88% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Model raises LAX departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 91%

\n ▲ 56% → 91% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Major\n \n A+D\n GND STOP\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “NATIONAL GROUND STOP”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n CConfirmed\n Significant\n \n A+D\n RESTRICT\n NEW\n \n

FAA advisory: “ALL AIRPORTS DIVERSION RECOVERY ACTIVATED”

\n \n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 52%

\n ▼ 55% → 52% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n LAX\n ARR\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

LAX arrivals running late: 41% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

\n 41% late\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 55%

\n ▲ 50% → 55% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n FForecast\n Significant\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n RESOLVED\n \n

Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 58%

\n ▲ 45% → 58% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Major\n LAX\n DEP\n DELAY\n DEVELOPING\n \n

LAX departure delays worsen: 69% late in the last hour

\n ▲ late share 52% → 69%\n
\n \n
","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \n \n \n OObserved\n Significant\n LAX\n ARR\n TAXI-IN\n RESOLVED\n \n

LAX arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 34% took 17+ min after landing

\n Sample 29 arrivals\n
\n \n
"],"filters":"airport=LAX&mode=all&view=terminal"}