{"items":[{"id":9706,"event_id":4196,"slug":"4196-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Updated model now expects about 22 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 108 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 11 → 22 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:42.442483Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:57:41.705246Z","time":"8:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 min ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi40NDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTcwNg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":22.3,"target":"LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":9.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":true,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":108,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T04:00:00Z","time":"8:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 04:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9706,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9570,"event_id":4195,"slug":"4195-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model expects about 7 cancellations among LAX departures midnight–3 AM Saturday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 34 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.459706Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy40NTk3MDYrMDA6MDB8OTU3MA","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":6.7,"target":"LAX departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)","horizon_h":5.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":34,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"new","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9570,"status_label":"New","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9569,"event_id":4073,"slug":"4073-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 33 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 15 → 33 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:03.449381Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:57:00.520977Z","time":"6:57 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"2 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:57 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:57 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMjo1NzowMy40NDkzODErMDA6MDB8OTU2OQ","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":32.8,"target":"LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":2.0,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":97,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T02:00:00Z","time":"6:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 02:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":4,"latest_update_id":9569,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":4,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9522,"event_id":4072,"slug":"4072-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"cancellation","type_label":"Cancellation","headline":"Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among LAX departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 39 of the 111 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":"about 24 → 39 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast","airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:28.257836Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-14T01:27:27.527988Z","time":"5:27 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 5:27 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 01:27 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwMToyNzoyOC4yNTc4MzYrMDA6MDB8OTUyMg","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":38.6,"target":"LAX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":0.5,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":111,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","time":"4:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-14 00:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":3,"latest_update_id":9522,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":3,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":9253,"event_id":4071,"slug":"4071-lax-cancellation-risk","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. 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This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LAX"],"metros":["LA"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:49.850609Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:56:47.706401Z","time":"1:56 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"7 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:56 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:56 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-17.1","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xM1QyMTo1Njo0OS44NTA2MDkrMDA6MDB8OTI1Mw","forecast":{"p_pct":null,"expected_cancellations":18.8,"target":"LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)","horizon_h":1.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":110,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-11-13T21:00:00Z","time":"1:00 PM","zone":"PST","date":"Nov 13","ago":"8 h ago","full":"Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST","utc_text":"2026-11-13 21:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":9253,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]}],"next_cursor":null,"top_cursor":"MjAyNi0xMS0xNFQwNDo1Nzo0Mi40NDI0ODMrMDA6MDB8OTcwNg","flight_routes":null,"html":["\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 5 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Updated model now expects about 22 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Saturday

\n

What changed: about 11 → 22 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 108 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~22 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n New\n \n \n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 7 cancellations among LAX departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 34 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 2 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 33 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

\n

What changed: about 15 → 33 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~33 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n Escalation\n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among LAX departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n

What changed: about 24 → 39 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast

\n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 39 of the 111 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~39 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (3)\n 2 earlier matching updates\n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n","\n\n\n
\n
\n \n PST, Nov 13\n 7 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast\n Major\n Resolved\n \n \n Cancellation\n LAX\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model expects about 19 cancellations among LAX departures 3–6 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 110 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

\n \n

Expected ~19 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LAX\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n"],"filters":"type=cancellation&airport=LAX"}