{"items":[{"id":27,"event_id":13,"slug":"13-lga-ground-stop","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"ground_stop","type_label":"Ground stop","headline":"FAA extends LaGuardia ground stop to 8:15 PM EDT","body":"The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”. Flights to LGA are held at their departure airports until 8:15 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.","what_changed":"end 7:15 PM EDT → 8:15 PM EDT","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"arrivals","direction_label":"arrivals","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:16:00.738811Z","time":"7:16 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:16 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:16 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T22:20:00Z","time":"6:20 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"1 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 6:20 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 22:20 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:16:00.665718Z","time":"7:16 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"23 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:16 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:16 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoxNjowMC43Mzg4MTErMDA6MDB8Mjc","lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":2,"latest_update_id":27,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":2,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":26,"event_id":9,"slug":"9-lga-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"FAA now reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia","body":"The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.","what_changed":"range 61–75 → 76–90 min","airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:13:59.654453Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:13 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:12:32.709000Z","time":"7:12 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"27 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:12 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:12 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T23:13:59.558889Z","time":"7:13 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"25 min ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 7:13 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 23:13 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"faa_nas faa_nas-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":null,"corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQyMzoxMzo1OS42NTQ0NTMrMDA6MDB8MjY","lifecycle":"developing","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":5,"latest_update_id":26,"status_label":"Developing","n_match":5,"sources":[{"label":"FAA NAS Status (airport events)","url":"https://nasstatus.faa.gov/","role":"primary","source":"faa_nas"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":18,"event_id":5,"slug":"5-lga-delays","kind":"escalation","kind_label":"Escalation","evidence":"forecast","evidence_label":"Forecast","evidence_help":"Tailodds' model predicts it. It has not happened.","severity":"major","severity_label":"Major","severity_rank":3,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). 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It has not happened.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"delay","type_label":"Delay","headline":"Model forecasts 64% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday","body":"Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.","what_changed":null,"airports":["LGA"],"metros":["NYC"],"direction":"departures","direction_label":"departures","published":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.329595Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"source_event":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"},"ingested":{"utc":"2026-10-16T19:54:42.024561Z","time":"3:54 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"3 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 3:54 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 19:54 UTC"},"historical":false,"simulated":false,"writer":"template-v1","detector":"forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1","config_version":"2026-10-16.2","model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","corrects_update_id":null,"cursor":"MjAyNi0xMC0xNlQxOTo1NDo0Mi4zMjk1OTUrMDA6MDB8NA","forecast":{"p_pct":"64%","expected_cancellations":1.9,"target":"LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-16 (15+ min late)","horizon_h":2.1,"model_version":"famB-sd-v4i","model_changed":false,"calibration":"isotonic (model/train_forecast.py)","n":98,"cycle":{"utc":"2026-10-16T18:00:00Z","time":"2:00 PM","zone":"EDT","date":"Oct 16","ago":"5 h ago","full":"Fri Oct 16, 2:00 PM EDT","utc_text":"2026-10-16 18:00 UTC"}},"lifecycle":"resolved","has_correction":false,"has_retraction":false,"update_count":1,"latest_update_id":4,"status_label":"Resolved","n_match":1,"sources":[{"label":"Tailodds forecast","url":null,"role":"primary","source":"tailodds_forecast"}],"corrections":[]},{"id":1,"event_id":1,"slug":"1-lga-restriction","kind":"initial","kind_label":"Initial","evidence":"confirmed","evidence_label":"Confirmed","evidence_help":"An official source reports it. We attribute it; we do not independently verify it.","severity":"significant","severity_label":"Significant","severity_rank":2,"event_type":"traffic_restriction","type_label":"Traffic restriction","headline":"FAA reports ground delay program for LaGuardia arrivals, average delay 31 min","body":"The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 31 min and a maximum of 88 min. 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\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 23 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Ground stop\n LGA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA extends LaGuardia ground stop to 8:15 PM EDT

\n

What changed: end 7:15 PM EDT → 8:15 PM EDT

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”. Flights to LGA are held at their departure airports until 8:15 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (2)\n 1 earlier matching update\n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 25 min ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

FAA now reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia

\n

What changed: range 61–75 → 76–90 min

\n \n

The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (5)\n 4 earlier matching updates\n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 1 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 73%\n Major\n Developing\n \n Escalation\n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%

\n

What changed: 62% → 73% since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

\n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 73%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (4)\n 3 earlier matching updates\n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Forecast 64%\n Significant\n Resolved\n \n \n Delay\n LGA\n departures\n \n \n
\n

Model forecasts 64% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday

\n \n \n

Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

\n \n

Probability 64%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

\n \n \n
\n Source: Tailodds forecast\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
","\n\n
\n
\n \n EDT, Oct 16\n 3 h ago\n
\n
\n \n
\n Confirmed\n Significant\n New\n \n \n Traffic restriction\n LGA\n arrivals\n \n \n
\n

FAA reports ground delay program for LaGuardia arrivals, average delay 31 min

\n \n \n

The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 31 min and a maximum of 88 min. Departures to LGA are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.

\n \n \n
\n Source: FAA NAS Status (airport events) ↗\n Timeline (1)\n \n View LGA\n \n \n
\n
\n
"],"filters":"airport=LGA"}